Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Headline CPI rose 1.33%MoM in Jun'24, because of a 3.17%MoM spike in food CPI. Consequently, headline CPI rose 5.08%YoY, driven by food inflation of 9.36%YoY.</li>
<li>Although core inflation was at 3.1%YoY in May-Jun'24, India targets headline inflation, not core. Vegetable inflation (+29.3%YoY) remained the main culprit pushing up headline inflation. Fiscal solutions will take time.  </li>
<li>Headline CPI inflation is likely to stay close to 5%YoY in Jul-Sep'24 (vs earlier expectations of it abating below 4%YoY). The first rate cut is therefore unlikely before Dec'24. </li>
</ul>


Headline CPI rose 1.33%MoM in Jun'24, because of a 3.17%MoM spike in food CPI. Consequently, headline CPI rose 5.08%YoY, driven by food inflation of 9.36%YoY.
Although core inflation was at 3.1%YoY in May-Jun'24, India targets headline inflation, not core. Vegetable inflation (+29.3%YoY) remained the main culprit pushing up headline inflation. Fiscal solutions will take time.  
Headline CPI inflation is likely to stay close to 5%YoY in Jul-Sep'24 (vs earlier expectations of it abating below 4%YoY). The first rate cut is therefore unlikely before Dec'24. 


India: Inflation Setback in June Pushes Out Prospect of Rate Cuts to Later in the Year

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Premier Energies / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/premier-energies-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42190:1" rel="noopener">Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN)</a> is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. It is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. </li>
<li>It also executes engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects and provides follow-up operation and maintenance (O&amp;M) services. </li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.</li>
</ul>



Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. It is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. 
It also executes engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects and provides follow-up operation and maintenance (O&amp;M) services. 
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.


Premier Energies Pre-IPO - Still Ramping up but Already Profitable

<ul>
<li>Goods export growth of 4.6%YoY was outpaced by import growth of 7.8%YoY (Apr-Jun'24), widening the merchandise deficit by 13.5%YoY. This was partly offset by the Apr-May24 services surplus widening 16.5%YoY. </li>
<li>In Q4FY24 (Jan-Mar'24), India had a current account surplus (0.6% of GDP) as the merchandise deficit of USD50.3bn was offset by a USD42.7bn services surplus and USD13.9bn incomes surplus.</li>
<li>With oil prices remaining subdued (USD75-90/bbl), goods exports and the services surplus expanding, India is likely to report a current account surplus of 0.5% of GDP in FY25. </li>
</ul>


Goods export growth of 4.6%YoY was outpaced by import growth of 7.8%YoY (Apr-Jun'24), widening the merchandise deficit by 13.5%YoY. This was partly offset by the Apr-May24 services surplus widening 16.5%YoY. 
In Q4FY24 (Jan-Mar'24), India had a current account surplus (0.6% of GDP) as the merchandise deficit of USD50.3bn was offset by a USD42.7bn services surplus and USD13.9bn incomes surplus.
With oil prices remaining subdued (USD75-90/bbl), goods exports and the services surplus expanding, India is likely to report a current account surplus of 0.5% of GDP in FY25. 


India: External Sector in Robust Health with Current Account Surplus Likely in FY25

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Despite more than doubling in the past 4 years, the BSE-Sensex is fairly valued (trailing P/E of 24.04x) relative to its 10-year mean (23.93x)-- helped by sustained EPS growth. </li>
<li>The trailing P/E is above the 20-year (21.34x) and 30-year mean (20.4x), but those reflect weaker growth prospects in earlier decades. 10yr mean better reflects new normal 8% RGDP growth.  </li>
<li>Net FPI inflows reached a record USD10.14bn in Dec'23, when the market was similarly valued. FPI flows into equity were minimal in H1CY24, but likely to rebound. Stay moderately Overweight. </li>
</ul>


Despite more than doubling in the past 4 years, the BSE-Sensex is fairly valued (trailing P/E of 24.04x) relative to its 10-year mean (23.93x)-- helped by sustained EPS growth. 
The trailing P/E is above the 20-year (21.34x) and 30-year mean (20.4x), but those reflect weaker growth prospects in earlier decades. 10yr mean better reflects new normal 8% RGDP growth.  
Net FPI inflows reached a record USD10.14bn in Dec'23, when the market was similarly valued. FPI flows into equity were minimal in H1CY24, but likely to rebound. Stay moderately Overweight. 


India: Growth Ensures that the Market Is Not Too Expensive Despite Big 4yr Runup

<ul>
<li>The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by PM Narendra Modi won its 3rd consecutive parliamentary majority (293 seats) although BJP fell short of a majority (unlike in 2014 and 2019).</li>
<li>Modi will take office on Friday, but will be dependent on the 16 and 12 MPs of Chandrababu Naidu's TDP and Nitish Kumar's JD(U) respectively, CMs of Andhra and Bihar. </li>
<li>Naidu is an economic reformer, who's likely to support labour-market reform and privatisation. BJP's social agenda (UCC, single nationwide election) will need to be shelved, but economic reform will advance. </li>
</ul>


The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by PM Narendra Modi won its 3rd consecutive parliamentary majority (293 seats) although BJP fell short of a majority (unlike in 2014 and 2019).
Modi will take office on Friday, but will be dependent on the 16 and 12 MPs of Chandrababu Naidu's TDP and Nitish Kumar's JD(U) respectively, CMs of Andhra and Bihar. 
Naidu is an economic reformer, who's likely to support labour-market reform and privatisation. BJP's social agenda (UCC, single nationwide election) will need to be shelved, but economic reform will advance. 


NDA (Not BJP) Wins 3rd Consecutive Term; Economic Reform Will Still Gain

India

iShares MSCI India ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI India Index.

iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US)

India: Inflation Setback in June Pushes Out Prospect of Rate Cuts to Later in the Year

Headline CPI rose to 5.08%YoY in Jun'24 due to food inflation (9.36%YoY). Despite the high base from Jul-Aug'23, CPI inflation will be near 5%YoY...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Premier Energies Pre-IPO - Still Ramping up but Already Profitable

Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. It is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV)...

Ethan Aw

India: External Sector in Robust Health with Current Account Surplus Likely in FY25

India's current account swung to surplus in Q4FY24, with merchandise deficit offset by services & incomes surpluses, likely to continue in FY25...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Growth Ensures that the Market Is Not Too Expensive Despite Big 4yr Runup

Sensex trailing P/E of 24.04x is near 10yr mean of 23.93x, reflecting sustained EPS growth. Net FPI inflows hit a record USD10bn in Dec'23, when...

Prasenjit K. Basu

NDA (Not BJP) Wins 3rd Consecutive Term; Economic Reform Will Still Gain

NDA led by PM Modi wins 3rd consecutive majority, but BJP falls short. Modi dependent on TDP and JD(U) MPs for support. Economic reform likely to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Inflation Setback in June Pushes Out Prospect of Rate Cuts to Later in the Year

​Headline CPI rose to 5.08%YoY in Jun'24 due to food inflation (9.36%YoY). Despite the high base from Jul-Aug'23, CPI inflation will be near 5%YoY...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Premier Energies Pre-IPO - Still Ramping up but Already Profitable

Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. It is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV)...

Ethan Aw

India: External Sector in Robust Health with Current Account Surplus Likely in FY25

​India's current account swung to surplus in Q4FY24, with merchandise deficit offset by services & incomes surpluses, likely to continue in FY25...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Growth Ensures that the Market Is Not Too Expensive Despite Big 4yr Runup

​Sensex trailing P/E of 24.04x is near 10yr mean of 23.93x, reflecting sustained EPS growth. Net FPI inflows hit a record USD10bn in Dec'23, when...

Prasenjit K. Basu

NDA (Not BJP) Wins 3rd Consecutive Term; Economic Reform Will Still Gain

​NDA led by PM Modi wins 3rd consecutive majority, but BJP falls short. Modi dependent on TDP and JD(U) MPs for support. Economic reform likely to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Headline CPI rose to 5.08%YoY in Jun'24 due to food inflation (9.36%YoY). Despite the high base from Jul-Aug'23, CPI inflation will be near 5%YoY...

India's current account swung to surplus in Q4FY24, with merchandise deficit offset by services & incomes surpluses, likely to continue in FY25...

Sensex trailing P/E of 24.04x is near 10yr mean of 23.93x, reflecting sustained EPS growth. Net FPI inflows hit a record USD10bn in Dec'23, when...

NDA led by PM Modi wins 3rd consecutive majority, but BJP falls short. Modi dependent on TDP and JD(U) MPs for support. Economic reform likely to...