Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>First, let’s talk about Huawei. I want to highlight how lackadaisically the export restrictions have even been applied.</li><li>BIS granted validated end-user status to SMIC in 2007, which meant that as late as 2020, multiple SMIC entities were still receiving tools from American companies.</li><li>BIS got lobbied by tool makers to undo commerce control list regulations in 2018. Also, AMEC has outright stolen tools from US companies.</li></ul>

First, let’s talk about Huawei. I want to highlight how lackadaisically the export restrictions have even been applied.BIS granted validated end-user status to SMIC in 2007, which meant that as late as 2020, multiple SMIC entities were still receiving tools from American companies.BIS got lobbied by tool makers to undo commerce control list regulations in 2018. Also, AMEC has outright stolen tools from US companies.

Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).</li>
<li>Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).
Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.


Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SOXX rose 1.3% as AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom rallied on China access and upgrades, while Micron and ASML lagged on memory and High-NA concerns.</li>
<li>ASML warned on 2026 as TSMC and Samsung delay High-NA EUV; newer designs instead boost demand for etch players over lithography.</li>
<li>$136M ETF outflows and a 25% drop in options activity show gains remain narrow, with investors waiting on tariffs and real tech catalysts.</li>
</ul>


SOXX rose 1.3% as AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom rallied on China access and upgrades, while Micron and ASML lagged on memory and High-NA concerns.
ASML warned on 2026 as TSMC and Samsung delay High-NA EUV; newer designs instead boost demand for etch players over lithography.
$136M ETF outflows and a 25% drop in options activity show gains remain narrow, with investors waiting on tariffs and real tech catalysts.


[Wafer Watch] Top Chipmakers Drive the Index, Broader Market Stalls

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).</li>
<li>We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).
We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.


Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>Semiconductor industry expected to grow by 10%</li><li>US semiconductor manufacturing expansion faces challenges</li><li>Trump and China agree to a 90-day pause on new tariffs, with uncertainty about future outcomes</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Semiconductor industry expected to grow by 10%US semiconductor manufacturing expansion faces challengesTrump and China agree to a 90-day pause on new tariffs, with uncertainty about future outcomesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 118: Weekly Update (Tariffs), AI Budget Spend, Semis and Saudi's

United States

iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index.

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iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX US)

Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs

A news filled week in semiconductors. Let's discuss. First, let’s talk about Huawei. I want to highlight how lackadaisically the export...

Fabricated Knowledge

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Still Little Evidence that a Meaningful Pullback is Imminent. Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ since 4/22...

Vermilion Research

[Wafer Watch] Top Chipmakers Drive the Index, Broader Market Stalls

AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom lead the gains, but falling flows, cautious options bets, and structural shifts in chipmaking leave the rally on...

Mint Finance

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish and Risk-On. $SMH $SOXX $TSM $NVDA $ARM $MU $KLAC $LRCX...

Vermilion Research

Episode 118: Weekly Update (Tariffs), AI Budget Spend, Semis and Saudi's

The semiconductor industry is anticipated to grow by 10%, but US manufacturing expansion faces challenges and restrictions on Chinese chip makers,...

The Circuit

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