Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.</li>
<li>At the same time, if SPX breaks below 7580 we would look for a 7-10% peak-to-trough decline, while being mindful of support at 7250-7300.</li>
<li>A.I. areas were hit hard yesterday following the "pacing the frontier" developments over the weekend, and we believe caution is warranted on semiconductors, memory, neoclouds, and photonics names.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), and we will stay that way as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.
At the same time, if SPX breaks below 7580 we would look for a 7-10% peak-to-trough decline, while being mindful of support at 7250-7300.
A.I. areas were hit hard yesterday following the "pacing the frontier" developments over the weekend, and we believe caution is warranted on semiconductors, memory, neoclouds, and photonics names.


Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM

VanEck Oil Services ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>As long as last Wednesday's (Aug. 12) bullish gaps remain unfilled and hold as support on semiconductors (SOXX, SMH), generative A.I. (CHAT), memory(DRAM), neoclouds(NCLD), and momentum(MTUM), bulls are in control</li>
<li>Specifically, we are bullish as long as price is above last Tuesday's highs on the aforementioned ETFs. On SPX, we will remain bullish as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
As long as last Wednesday's (Aug. 12) bullish gaps remain unfilled and hold as support on semiconductors (SOXX, SMH), generative A.I. (CHAT), memory(DRAM), neoclouds(NCLD), and momentum(MTUM), bulls are in control
Specifically, we are bullish as long as price is above last Tuesday's highs on the aforementioned ETFs. On SPX, we will remain bullish as long as support at 7580-7629 holds.


Energy Improving; Levels to Watch on A.I. And Technology $SOXX $CHAT $DRAM $MTUM

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision.</li>
<li>The IWM has begun to lead, hitting new all-time highs yesterday while SPX and QQQ consolidate below their early-June highs.</li>
<li>A new wrinkle is that the DXY is showing signs of breaking out, a risk-off signal. This gives us reason for pause, and suggests a potentially longer consolidation period.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision.
The IWM has begun to lead, hitting new all-time highs yesterday while SPX and QQQ consolidate below their early-June highs.
A new wrinkle is that the DXY is showing signs of breaking out, a risk-off signal. This gives us reason for pause, and suggests a potentially longer consolidation period.


U.S. Dollar (DXY) Breakout a Reason for Concern?; Monitoring Semiconductors (SOXX) And Micron (MU)

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Advance/Decline (A/D) lines for the QQQ and IWM also hit YTD highs over the past week, signaling this is a healthy, broad-based advance. </li>
<li>SPX and QQQ have refused to even close below their 8-day EMAs (a sign of a strongly trending market), while IWM tested its 20-day MA and $278 support level yesterday</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
Advance/Decline (A/D) lines for the QQQ and IWM also hit YTD highs over the past week, signaling this is a healthy, broad-based advance. 
SPX and QQQ have refused to even close below their 8-day EMAs (a sign of a strongly trending market), while IWM tested its 20-day MA and $278 support level yesterday


Downgrading Communications to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long SMH, CHAT, WGMI, BITQ, HYDR, NASA, REMX

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).</li>
<li>Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).
Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.


Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

United States

iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index.

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iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX US)

Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM

Wall of Worry Grows Taller; 7580 on SPX Remains Vital. Charts Highlighted: SPX, MAGS, SOXX, DRAM, PBR, REPYY, EC, YPF, UGP, GPRK, GTE, COP, EOG,...

Vermilion Research

Energy Improving; Levels to Watch on A.I. And Technology $SOXX $CHAT $DRAM $MTUM

Energy $XLE $OIH $IEO Improving; Levels to Watch in A.I. and Technology Areas $CHAT $SOXX $MTUM $DRAM. Still bullish $SPX, but some reason for...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Dollar (DXY) Breakout a Reason for Concern?; Monitoring Semiconductors (SOXX) And Micron (MU)

U.S. Dollar (DXY) Breakout a Reason for Concern?; Monitoring Semiconductors $SOXX and Micron $MU; Focus Turning Away from Technology/A.I.

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Communications to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long SMH, CHAT, WGMI, BITQ, HYDR, NASA, REMX

Downgrading Communications $XLC to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long $SMH $CHAT $WGMI $BITQ $HYDR $NASA $REMX $ARKK $ARKW. Still Bullish since April 21

Vermilion Research

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Still Little Evidence that a Meaningful Pullback is Imminent. Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ since 4/22...

Vermilion Research

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