Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The mega-offering-slash-re-IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/archion-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47577:1" rel="noopener">Archion (543A JP)</a> likely prices today. This is 900mm new shares for ~US$1.6bn of which 40% (US$630mm) goes to internationals, 60% to domestics.</li>
<li>There's a bunch of index buying to do between now and end-October. More than I originally thought due to one recent data point.</li>
<li>The stock has NOT gotten crushed in the last two weeks despite indications the sellers wouldn't mind. That tells me this is priced except for print risk. </li>
</ul>


The mega-offering-slash-re-IPO of Archion (543A JP) likely prices today. This is 900mm new shares for ~US$1.6bn of which 40% (US$630mm) goes to internationals, 60% to domestics.
There's a bunch of index buying to do between now and end-October. More than I originally thought due to one recent data point.
The stock has NOT gotten crushed in the last two weeks despite indications the sellers wouldn't mind. That tells me this is priced except for print risk. 


[Japan Offering] ARCHION (543A) Prices Today (?) - Big Picture Growth Priced Cheaply

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect AH's 2Q26E core profit to recover strongly to Bt171mn (+51% YoY, -45% QoQ).</li>
<li>Although the industry backdrop remains challenging, AH's diversified business portfolio, together with our view that it remains the least exposed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East among auto parts companies, should provide greater resilience against industry risks.</li>
<li>We maintain our Outperform rating and unchanged fair value of Bt17.00.</li>
</ul>


We expect AH's 2Q26E core profit to recover strongly to Bt171mn (+51% YoY, -45% QoQ).
Although the industry backdrop remains challenging, AH's diversified business portfolio, together with our view that it remains the least exposed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East among auto parts companies, should provide greater resilience against industry risks.
We maintain our Outperform rating and unchanged fair value of Bt17.00.


AAPICO HITECH Plc. (AH): 2Q26E Earnings Expected to Rebound on a Low Base

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daimler-truck-holding-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35551:1" rel="noopener">Daimler Truck Holding (DTG GR)</a> (DT) are looking to raise up to US$1.7bn via selling around 35% of their stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/archion-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47577:1" rel="noopener">Archion (543A JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The news of the possible deal had been leaked ahead of the actual launch, although the overall selldown was very well flagged.</li>
<li>We have looked at most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the recent share price performance and provide our thoughts on valuations.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Daimler Truck Holding (DTG GR) (DT) are looking to raise up to US$1.7bn via selling around 35% of their stake in Archion (543A JP).
The news of the possible deal had been leaked ahead of the actual launch, although the overall selldown was very well flagged.
We have looked at most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the recent share price performance and provide our thoughts on valuations.


Aequitas: Archion Placement - Past Large Deals Performance and Thoughts on Valuations

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). </p>

Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). 

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daimler-truck-holding-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35551:1" rel="noopener">Daimler Truck Holding (DTG GR)</a> (DT) are looking to raise up to US$1.7bn via selling around 35% of their stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/archion-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47577:1" rel="noopener">Archion (543A JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The news of the possible deal was already out last week and the deal terms are somewhat along expected lines.</li>
<li>We have looked at most aspects of the deal in our earlier note. In this note, we will talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Daimler Truck Holding (DTG GR) (DT) are looking to raise up to US$1.7bn via selling around 35% of their stake in Archion (543A JP).
The news of the possible deal was already out last week and the deal terms are somewhat along expected lines.
We have looked at most aspects of the deal in our earlier note. In this note, we will talk about the recent updates.


Aequitas: Archion Placement - As Expected, Some of the past Large Deals Have Been Mixed

Japan

Isuzu Motors Limited manufactures and markets trucks and automobile parts. The Company's products include pickup trucks, light/heavy duty trucks, medium and large-sized buses, recreational vehicles, and sport utility vehicles.

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Isuzu Motors (7202 JP)

[Japan Offering] ARCHION (543A) Prices Today (?) - Big Picture Growth Priced Cheaply

Archion priced its offering WAY too low. The stock has underperformed Isuzu by 15% since the post-merger business plan was announced and nearly 10%...

Travis Lundy

AAPICO HITECH Plc. (AH): 2Q26E Earnings Expected to Rebound on a Low Base

We expect AH's 2Q26E core profit to recover strongly to Bt171mn (+51% YoY, -45% QoQ). Although the industry backdrop remains challenging, AH's...

Krungthai XSpring

Aequitas: Archion Placement - Past Large Deals Performance and Thoughts on Valuations

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Daimler Truck Holding (DTG GR) are looking to raise up to US$1.7bn via selling some of their stake in Archion (543A JP)....

Sumeet Singh

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight, while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples,...

Vermilion Research

Aequitas: Archion Placement - As Expected, Some of the past Large Deals Have Been Mixed

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Daimler Truck Holding (DTG GR) (DT) are looking to raise up to US$1.7bn via selling around 35% of their stake in Archion...

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

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