Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good one for equities in general, it should be good for defensive stocks, because these are the most bond-like of equities and the switch almost defines a fixed income bull market. Japan may not have been particularly high growth or high interest rate in 2000, but it was certainly higher growth and higher interest rate than today, and it is no surprise that defensive sectors like foods (+210% relative to Topix since 1999) and pharmaceuticals (+160%) have done very well over this time. The question, now, is whether this is set to continue, or whether we might have hit a turning point.

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good one for equities in general, it should be good for defensive stocks, because these are the most bond-like of equities and the switch almost defines a fixed income bull market. Japan may not have been particularly high growth or high interest rate in 2000, but it was certainly higher growth and higher interest rate than today, and it is no surprise that defensive sectors like foods (+210% relative to Topix since 1999) and pharmaceuticals (+160%) have done very well over this time.  The question, now, is whether this is set to continue, or whether we might have hit a turning point.

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/boj-the-80-trillion-yen-question" target="_blank">forecast by Europacifica</a>, BOJ offered symbolic (modest) easing today.- Though it left overnight rates at -0.1%, the BOJ increased its <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160729a.pdf" target="_blank">ETF purchases</a> from JPY3.3trn to JPY6trn by a 7-2 majority vote.  - As anticipated, the BOJ refrained from extreme policies such as unlimited monetisation of government debt ("helicopter money").  - The BOJ also declined to further distort the measure of inflation expectations encapsulated in the JGBi market, or to pressure liquidity further by increasing the…

As forecast by Europacifica, BOJ offered symbolic (modest) easing today.- Though it left overnight rates at -0.1%, the BOJ increased its ETF purchases from JPY3.3trn to JPY6trn by a 7-2 majority vote.  - As anticipated, the BOJ refrained from extreme policies such as unlimited monetisation of government debt ("helicopter money").  - The BOJ also declined to further distort the measure of inflation expectations encapsulated in the JGBi market, or to pressure liquidity further by increasing the…

BOJ Outcome: Symbolic Stimulus (As We Predicted)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A holistic view of the three different documents here suggests the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> buyback, indeed, "It was a trap".</li>
<li>3D Investment Partners raised its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1" rel="noopener">Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)</a>,  suggesting the activist investor is optimistic about successfully advancing their proposals.</li>
<li>A firm merger proposal is expected for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a> in the next couple of weeks. Time to buy.</li>
</ul>


A holistic view of the three different documents here suggests the Denso Corp (6902 JP) buyback, indeed, "It was a trap".
3D Investment Partners raised its stake in Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP),  suggesting the activist investor is optimistic about successfully advancing their proposals.
A firm merger proposal is expected for Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) in the next couple of weeks. Time to buy.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy

Travis Lundy

Ito En Ltd Preferred Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is always a tough subject, but every now and then I throw myself on the mercy of the ho-humming crowd and write about the Ito En Prefs (25935 JP).</li>
<li>No strong catalyst. Limited capacity for strongly better governance. Even less apparent corporate interest in good governance. </li>
<li>But we have a mini-catalyst, and it has been a while, and I think there IS a good way to think about this stock, so here's another crack at it.</li>
</ul>


This is always a tough subject, but every now and then I throw myself on the mercy of the ho-humming crowd and write about the Ito En Prefs (25935 JP).
No strong catalyst. Limited capacity for strongly better governance. Even less apparent corporate interest in good governance. 
But we have a mini-catalyst, and it has been a while, and I think there IS a good way to think about this stock, so here's another crack at it.


Itoen Pref (25935 JP) - Big Discount, Big Buyback, No Big Governance Change

<ul>
<li>The January 2023 TOPIX FFW Trade was announced today. The two-way trade is worth about ¥325bn. </li>
<li>There are four ADDs previously discussed: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36668:1" rel="noopener">Sun* (4053 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/appier-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32165:1" rel="noopener">Appier Group (4180 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chubu-steel-plate-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18535:1" rel="noopener">Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chubu-steel-plate-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18535:1" rel="noopener">Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>There are 57 downweights, 11 upweights (but only seven FFW buys). The rest is reverse funding to buy. There are 10 names with &gt;$10mm AND &gt;3 days ADV to sell.</li>
</ul>


The January 2023 TOPIX FFW Trade was announced today. The two-way trade is worth about ¥325bn. 
There are four ADDs previously discussed: Sun* (4053 JP), Appier Group (4180 JP), Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP), and Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP). 
There are 57 downweights, 11 upweights (but only seven FFW buys). The rest is reverse funding to buy. There are 10 names with &gt;$10mm AND &gt;3 days ADV to sell.


January TOPIX FFW Review - Some Big Sells

Japan


ITO EN, LTD. produces various types of Japanese tea and canned beverages.

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Ito En Ltd Preferred Shares (25935 JP)

Death Rattle for Defensives?

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good...

Pelham Smithers Associates

BOJ Outcome: Symbolic Stimulus (As We Predicted)

As forecast by Europacifica, BOJ offered symbolic (modest) easing today.- Though it left overnight rates at -0.1%, the BOJ increased its ETF...

Naomi Fink

Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Itoen Pref (25935 JP) - Big Discount, Big Buyback, No Big Governance Change

The Itoen Pref Shares (25935 JP) are the only listed preferred share in Japan. They are illiquid. But they trade at a very wide discount to the...

Travis Lundy

January TOPIX FFW Review - Some Big Sells

The TOPIX January 2023 FFW trade was announced today. 57 down-weights, 11 FFW up-weights. The Phased Weight Reduction has its second leg. Total to...

Travis Lundy

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