Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. </li>
<li>Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. </li>
<li>Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.</li>
</ul>


We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. 
Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. 
Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.


Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In the days approaching H1 results in 2024, Japanese banks raised H1 guidance. Among the top 50 banks outside the top 10, the increase was significant. </li>
<li>This year, out of those 50 banks, 12 have either reported (2) or raised guidance (10) for H1 in the past five weeks by an average of 47% (median 43%). </li>
<li>Higher loan income, core business profits, and lower credit costs are the main culprits. Expect lots more guidance revisions in the next 10 days.</li>
</ul>


In the days approaching H1 results in 2024, Japanese banks raised H1 guidance. Among the top 50 banks outside the top 10, the increase was significant. 
This year, out of those 50 banks, 12 have either reported (2) or raised guidance (10) for H1 in the past five weeks by an average of 47% (median 43%). 
Higher loan income, core business profits, and lower credit costs are the main culprits. Expect lots more guidance revisions in the next 10 days.


Japan 2025 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Strong Upward Revisions Like Last Year - Likely More To Come

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we compare Japanese insurers versus banks, look at the Chinese EV sector and explore how tariff hikes benefit Asian port operators</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we compare Japanese insurers versus banks, look at the Chinese EV sector and explore how tariff hikes benefit Asian port operators
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next


Curator's Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector & Asian Ports in Focus

<ul>
<li>Chiba Bank shows good gains in net interest income through 1H25 YoY </li>
<li>There should be more of this with rising BOJ rates during 2H25.</li>
<li>Flow through to net profit can be strong, given credit metrics.</li>
</ul>


Chiba Bank shows good gains in net interest income through 1H25 YoY 
There should be more of this with rising BOJ rates during 2H25.
Flow through to net profit can be strong, given credit metrics.


Chiba Bank - Net Interest Income Up, Expect More with BOJ Hike, Credit Metrics Allow Flow Through

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>We update our views on ten Japanese midcap banks targeting attractively valued beneficiaries of the realization of big strategic shareholdings, as well as beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook</li>
<li>We re-iterate our buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial; there is potential to realize their large strategic holdings relative to their market capitalizations combined with their attractive PTBV ratios</li>
<li>We take Gunma Bank off the buy list, replacing it with Iyogin; Iyogin has a constructive mix of large strategic holdings, attractive valuations and healthy gearing to higher interest rates</li>
</ul>


We update our views on ten Japanese midcap banks targeting attractively valued beneficiaries of the realization of big strategic shareholdings, as well as beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook
We re-iterate our buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial; there is potential to realize their large strategic holdings relative to their market capitalizations combined with their attractive PTBV ratios
We take Gunma Bank off the buy list, replacing it with Iyogin; Iyogin has a constructive mix of large strategic holdings, attractive valuations and healthy gearing to higher interest rates


Japanese Midcap Banks – Hachijuni (8359 JP) Is Our Top Pick

Japan

Iyogin Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company provides operation and management of bank related subsidiary companies. Iyogin Holdings provides its services throughout Japan.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP)

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

BOJ to meet 23-24 Jan and likely to raise rates possibly by doubling short-term rates, from 0.25% to 0.50%. There are important implications for...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan 2025 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Strong Upward Revisions Like Last Year - Likely More To Come

H1Japanese bank guidance revisions trending strong, like in 2024. Average (47%) revisions are a little lower, some due to super low FY23 basis, but...

Travis Lundy

Curator's Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector & Asian Ports in Focus

This Curator's Cut issue compares Japanese insurers vs banks amidst rising yields, the state of the Chinese EV sector and how Asian port operators...

Pranav Rao

Chiba Bank - Net Interest Income Up, Expect More with BOJ Hike, Credit Metrics Allow Flow Through

Chiba Bank already showing good net interest income gains, and more is likely with rate hike from BOJ, credit metrics appear strong, so better core...

Daniel Tabbush

Japanese Midcap Banks – Hachijuni (8359 JP) Is Our Top Pick

Japanese midcap banks: stick with buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial, replacing Gunma Bank with Iyogin for potential gains from equity...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

BOJ to meet 23-24 Jan and likely to raise rates possibly by doubling short-term rates, from 0.25% to 0.50%. There are important implications for...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan 2025 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Strong Upward Revisions Like Last Year - Likely More To Come

H1Japanese bank guidance revisions trending strong, like in 2024. Average (47%) revisions are a little lower, some due to super low FY23 basis, but...

Travis Lundy

Curator's Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector & Asian Ports in Focus

​This Curator's Cut issue compares Japanese insurers vs banks amidst rising yields, the state of the Chinese EV sector and how Asian port operators...

Pranav Rao

Chiba Bank - Net Interest Income Up, Expect More with BOJ Hike, Credit Metrics Allow Flow Through

Chiba Bank already showing good net interest income gains, and more is likely with rate hike from BOJ, credit metrics appear strong, so better core...

Daniel Tabbush

Japanese Midcap Banks – Hachijuni (8359 JP) Is Our Top Pick

​Japanese midcap banks: stick with buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial, replacing Gunma Bank with Iyogin for potential gains from equity...

Victor Galliano

This Curator's Cut issue compares Japanese insurers vs banks amidst rising yields, the state of the Chinese EV sector and how Asian port operators...

Japanese midcap banks: stick with buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial, replacing Gunma Bank with Iyogin for potential gains from equity...