Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our key themes for Japanese banks in 2026 are top line growth due to a hawkish BoJ and the potential for shareholder value creation through cross-holding disposals</li>
<li>In the big caps, we stick with Resona Holdings as our top pick for its strong gearing to rising interest rates and its relatively high equity cross-holdings to market value</li>
<li>Our top mid-caps picks are Iyogin Holdings and Hokuhoku, both of which are well positioned to benefit from higher interest rates and also have healthy cross-holdings relative to market value</li>
</ul>


Our key themes for Japanese banks in 2026 are top line growth due to a hawkish BoJ and the potential for shareholder value creation through cross-holding disposals
In the big caps, we stick with Resona Holdings as our top pick for its strong gearing to rising interest rates and its relatively high equity cross-holdings to market value
Our top mid-caps picks are Iyogin Holdings and Hokuhoku, both of which are well positioned to benefit from higher interest rates and also have healthy cross-holdings relative to market value


Japanese Banks – 2026 High Conviction Ideas

<ul>
<li>We review the mid-cap banks’ equity shareholdings at year-end March 2026 in greater detail, focusing on how realizable these equity holdings may be; we compare these holdings to market capitalization</li>
<li>We find that Iyogin has a meaningful share of its total equity shareholdings in hard-to-realize holdings; we downgrade Iyogin, along with Nishi-Nippon, from buy to neutral</li>
<li>Hachijuni, our sole buy, leads on easy-to-realize shareholdings to market capitalisation and will enhance its interest rate gearing given the high level of fixed rate credit maturing by March-end 2027</li>
</ul>


We review the mid-cap banks’ equity shareholdings at year-end March 2026 in greater detail, focusing on how realizable these equity holdings may be; we compare these holdings to market capitalization
We find that Iyogin has a meaningful share of its total equity shareholdings in hard-to-realize holdings; we downgrade Iyogin, along with Nishi-Nippon, from buy to neutral
Hachijuni, our sole buy, leads on easy-to-realize shareholdings to market capitalisation and will enhance its interest rate gearing given the high level of fixed rate credit maturing by March-end 2027


Japanese Mid-Cap Banks – Taking Profits on Iyogin and Nishi-Nippon; Hachijuni Is Our Buy

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.</li>
<li>In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.</li>
<li>This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.
In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.
This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates


Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we unveil the first wave of 2026 high conviction ideas, break down the risks and rewards of the Meesho IPO and track upcoming lock-up expiries.</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we unveil the first wave of 2026 high conviction ideas, break down the risks and rewards of the Meesho IPO and track upcoming lock-up expiries.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: 2026's Top Picks, Unpacking Meesho's IPO & Navigating Lock-Ups

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In the days approaching H1 results in 2024, Japanese banks raised H1 guidance. Among the top 50 banks outside the top 10, the increase was significant. </li>
<li>This year, out of those 50 banks, 12 have either reported (2) or raised guidance (10) for H1 in the past five weeks by an average of 47% (median 43%). </li>
<li>Higher loan income, core business profits, and lower credit costs are the main culprits. Expect lots more guidance revisions in the next 10 days.</li>
</ul>


In the days approaching H1 results in 2024, Japanese banks raised H1 guidance. Among the top 50 banks outside the top 10, the increase was significant. 
This year, out of those 50 banks, 12 have either reported (2) or raised guidance (10) for H1 in the past five weeks by an average of 47% (median 43%). 
Higher loan income, core business profits, and lower credit costs are the main culprits. Expect lots more guidance revisions in the next 10 days.


Japan 2025 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Strong Upward Revisions Like Last Year - Likely More To Come

Japan

Iyogin Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company provides operation and management of bank related subsidiary companies. Iyogin Holdings provides its services throughout Japan.

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Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP)

Japanese Banks – 2026 High Conviction Ideas

Japanese banks in 2026 should see top line growth from hawkish BoJ, shareholder value creation through cross-holding disposals; Resona top pick...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Mid-Cap Banks – Taking Profits on Iyogin and Nishi-Nippon; Hachijuni Is Our Buy

Tightening the mid-cap banks' equity holdings perimeter and a tactical shift to take profits, leads us to downgrade Iyogin and Nishi-Nippon; our...

Victor Galliano

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Curator's Cut: 2026's Top Picks, Unpacking Meesho's IPO & Navigating Lock-Ups

This Curator's Cut issue highlights 2026's high conviction ideas, analyzes Meesho IPO risks/rewards, and tracks upcoming lock-up expiries on...

Pranav Rao

Japan 2025 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Strong Upward Revisions Like Last Year - Likely More To Come

H1Japanese bank guidance revisions trending strong, like in 2024. Average (47%) revisions are a little lower, some due to super low FY23 basis, but...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japanese Banks – 2026 High Conviction Ideas

​Japanese banks in 2026 should see top line growth from hawkish BoJ, shareholder value creation through cross-holding disposals; Resona top pick...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Mid-Cap Banks – Taking Profits on Iyogin and Nishi-Nippon; Hachijuni Is Our Buy

Tightening the mid-cap banks' equity holdings perimeter and a tactical shift to take profits, leads us to downgrade Iyogin and Nishi-Nippon; our...

Victor Galliano

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Curator's Cut: 2026's Top Picks, Unpacking Meesho's IPO & Navigating Lock-Ups

This ​Curator's Cut issue highlights 2026's high conviction ideas, analyzes Meesho IPO risks/rewards, and tracks upcoming lock-up expiries on...

Pranav Rao

Japan 2025 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Strong Upward Revisions Like Last Year - Likely More To Come

H1Japanese bank guidance revisions trending strong, like in 2024. Average (47%) revisions are a little lower, some due to super low FY23 basis, but...

Travis Lundy

Japanese banks in 2026 should see top line growth from hawkish BoJ, shareholder value creation through cross-holding disposals; Resona top pick...

This Curator's Cut issue highlights 2026's high conviction ideas, analyzes Meesho IPO risks/rewards, and tracks upcoming lock-up expiries on...