Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) continue to hold above short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs (currently 5966 on SPX, $526.50 on QQQ, $208.75 on IWM)</li>
<li>As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact.</li>
<li>We will need to see breakdowns below 20-day MA supports in order to expect any meaningful near-term downside.</li>
</ul>


The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) continue to hold above short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs (currently 5966 on SPX, $526.50 on QQQ, $208.75 on IWM)
As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact.
We will need to see breakdowns below 20-day MA supports in order to expect any meaningful near-term downside.


20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tesla has strengthened ties with Baidu amid the US-Sino tech crossfire, showcasing the complex dynamics between the two countries.</li><li>China achieves a breakthrough in semiconductor technology with EUV, while lawmakers propose anonymous semiconductor purchases to secure the industry.</li><li>VCI Global's plan to establish India's first semiconductor wire plant in Chennai marks a significant milestone for the tech industry in the country, with Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen aiming to revolutionize China's AI.</li></ul>

Tesla has strengthened ties with Baidu amid the US-Sino tech crossfire, showcasing the complex dynamics between the two countries.China achieves a breakthrough in semiconductor technology with EUV, while lawmakers propose anonymous semiconductor purchases to secure the industry.VCI Global's plan to establish India's first semiconductor wire plant in Chennai marks a significant milestone for the tech industry in the country, with Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen aiming to revolutionize China's AI.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Mar-2025): Tesla strengthens ties with Baidu amid US-China tech tensions.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Apple 1Q25 Results -- Overall Price-Supportive for Taiwan Supplier Share Prices When the Taiwan Market Re-Opens Monday</li>
<li>Why Zhen Ding Technology Holding (4958 TT) and Kinsus Interconnect Tech (3189 TT) Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple's AI Trajectory</li>
<li>Increasingly sophisticated Apple products require significantly more complex PCBs &amp; interconnect solutions, especially as advanced packaging has become a key enabler of high-performance computing.</li>
</ul>


Apple 1Q25 Results -- Overall Price-Supportive for Taiwan Supplier Share Prices When the Taiwan Market Re-Opens Monday
Why Zhen Ding Technology Holding (4958 TT) and Kinsus Interconnect Tech (3189 TT) Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple's AI Trajectory
Increasingly sophisticated Apple products require significantly more complex PCBs &amp; interconnect solutions, especially as advanced packaging has become a key enabler of high-performance computing.


Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Latest AAPL Results -- Taiwan Suppliers Well Placed for Monday Re-Open

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.</li>
<li>Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.
Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.
Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength


Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

<ul>
<li>The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.</li>
<li>We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218</li>
</ul>


The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.
We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.
Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218


Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

United States

Jabil Circuit, Inc. is an electronic manufacturing services provider for international electronics companies in the communications, personal computer, peripheral, consumer, and automotive markets.  The Company offers circuit design, board design from schematic, prototype assembly, volume board assembly, system assembly, repair, and warranty services.

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Jabil Circuit (JBL US)

20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

20-Day MA Supports Holding on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM. As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4...

Vermilion Research

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Mar-2025): Tesla strengthens ties with Baidu amid US-China tech tensions.

Weekly news roundup: Tesla strengthens ties with Baidu amid US-Sino tech tensions, China makes EUV breakthrough in semiconductors, lawmakers...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Latest AAPL Results -- Taiwan Suppliers Well Placed for Monday Re-Open

Apple's strong 1Q25 results are expected to boost Taiwan supplier share prices when the market re-opens. Zhen Ding and Kinsus Interconnect could...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Local Tops for 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX, U.S. Dollar $DXY, & WTI Crude Oil $CL_F, Now Tailwinds for Equities; All Major Indexes We Discussed...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership $SMH $TSM $NVDA; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Recent Consolidation. Market Dynamics Remain...

Vermilion Research

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20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

20-Day MA Supports Holding on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM. As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4...

Vermilion Research

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Mar-2025): Tesla strengthens ties with Baidu amid US-China tech tensions.

Weekly news roundup: Tesla strengthens ties with Baidu amid US-Sino tech tensions, China makes EUV breakthrough in semiconductors, lawmakers...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Latest AAPL Results -- Taiwan Suppliers Well Placed for Monday Re-Open

​Apple's strong 1Q25 results are expected to boost Taiwan supplier share prices when the market re-opens. Zhen Ding and Kinsus Interconnect could...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Local Tops for 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX, U.S. Dollar $DXY, & WTI Crude Oil $CL_F, Now Tailwinds for Equities; All Major Indexes We Discussed...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership $SMH $TSM $NVDA; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Recent Consolidation. Market Dynamics Remain...

Vermilion Research

Apple's strong 1Q25 results are expected to boost Taiwan supplier share prices when the market re-opens. Zhen Ding and Kinsus Interconnect could...