Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% over the week, reclaiming the 35,000 level as easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a softer yen bolstered investor sentiment.</li>
<li>Tokyo core CPI jumped to 3.4% in April 2025 (highest in two years), driven by reduced energy subsidies and April food price increases.</li>
<li>The weaker yen supported export-dependent sectors, such as machinery, auto parts and tech hardware. For individual stocks, it is all about results and capital policies. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% over the week, reclaiming the 35,000 level as easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a softer yen bolstered investor sentiment.
Tokyo core CPI jumped to 3.4% in April 2025 (highest in two years), driven by reduced energy subsidies and April food price increases.
The weaker yen supported export-dependent sectors, such as machinery, auto parts and tech hardware. For individual stocks, it is all about results and capital policies. 


Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Strong on Trade Optimism and Weaker Yen

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of March 2025, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$14bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~53%, with a year-to-date average also of 55%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .</li>
</ul>


For the month of March 2025, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$14bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~53%, with a year-to-date average also of 55%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2025 Wrap: ENN Energy, Gold Road, Spartan, Aeon Delight, Sinarmas, Topcon

<ul>
<li>For the month of February 2025, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$5bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~55%, with a year-to-date average also of 56%. </li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .</li>
</ul>


For the month of February 2025, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$5bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~55%, with a year-to-date average also of 56%. 
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2025 Wrap: Domain, Proto, Shibaura, Paragon REIT, Mayne Pharma, PointsBet

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>I wrote about this stock in May 2024. At the time, Japan activist Murakami-san had gone from 5% to 20% in a hurry. Shortly after, he was at 29%. </li>
<li>Then he fiddled/sold/bought/waited/sold. The stock fell in late 2024 as a quant fund sold. Murakami-san started buying again. In 3 weeks to 7 January bought from 27.02% to 34.51%.</li>
<li>By my calculation, as of last week he has 38.4% of votes. This is worth a closer look again. It's a discount to BVPS but ask yourself why this big.</li>
</ul>


I wrote about this stock in May 2024. At the time, Japan activist Murakami-san had gone from 5% to 20% in a hurry. Shortly after, he was at 29%. 
Then he fiddled/sold/bought/waited/sold. The stock fell in late 2024 as a quant fund sold. Murakami-san started buying again. In 3 weeks to 7 January bought from 27.02% to 34.51%.
By my calculation, as of last week he has 38.4% of votes. This is worth a closer look again. It's a discount to BVPS but ask yourself why this big.


[JAPAN Activism] Murakami Buying Mitsui Matshima (1518 JP) BIGLY - Now At 38% Aiming at Control?

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Earnings surpassed consensus expectations providing no pullback to allow entry</li>
<li>Most operating metrics improved and all trends are goign in the right direction</li>
<li>Capital management is top of mind for management with a common thread of increasing ROEs and PBRs</li>
</ul>


Earnings surpassed consensus expectations providing no pullback to allow entry
Most operating metrics improved and all trends are goign in the right direction
Capital management is top of mind for management with a common thread of increasing ROEs and PBRs


Japanese Megabanks' Earnings Exceed Expectations - Stay on the Train?

Japan

JAFCO Co., Ltd. forms venture capital groups to invest primarily in domestic and foreign private companies with high potential for future growth.  The Company also provides management services to the groups, makes loans and offers consultation services to the invested companies.

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Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)

Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Strong on Trade Optimism and Weaker Yen

Nikkei 225 climbs on easing trade tensions and weaker yen, Tokyo core CPI at 3.4% driven by reduced subsidies and food prices, export-dependent...

Mark Chadwick

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2025 Wrap: ENN Energy, Gold Road, Spartan, Aeon Delight, Sinarmas, Topcon

For the month of March, 13 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$14bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2025 Wrap: Domain, Proto, Shibaura, Paragon REIT, Mayne Pharma, PointsBet

For the month of February, 14 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$5bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

[JAPAN Activism] Murakami Buying Mitsui Matshima (1518 JP) BIGLY - Now At 38% Aiming at Control?

Murakami-san bought 29% of Mitsui Matsushima in 6wks in Q2 2024, paused, and now has bought 9+% more in 3wks. At 38%, he dominates the register....

Travis Lundy

Japanese Megabanks' Earnings Exceed Expectations - Stay on the Train?

Banks' strong earnings performance and focus on capital management drives positive stock price performance. Will it continue?

Rikki Malik

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Strong on Trade Optimism and Weaker Yen

​Nikkei 225 climbs on easing trade tensions and weaker yen, Tokyo core CPI at 3.4% driven by reduced subsidies and food prices, export-dependent...

Mark Chadwick

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2025 Wrap: ENN Energy, Gold Road, Spartan, Aeon Delight, Sinarmas, Topcon

For the month of March, 13 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$14bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2025 Wrap: Domain, Proto, Shibaura, Paragon REIT, Mayne Pharma, PointsBet

For the month of February, 14 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$5bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

[JAPAN Activism] Murakami Buying Mitsui Matshima (1518 JP) BIGLY - Now At 38% Aiming at Control?

Murakami-san bought 29% of Mitsui Matsushima in 6wks in Q2 2024, paused, and now has bought 9+% more in 3wks. At 38%, he dominates the register....

Travis Lundy

Japanese Megabanks' Earnings Exceed Expectations - Stay on the Train?

Banks' strong earnings performance and focus on capital management drives positive stock price performance. Will it continue?

Rikki Malik

Nikkei 225 climbs on easing trade tensions and weaker yen, Tokyo core CPI at 3.4% driven by reduced subsidies and food prices, export-dependent...