Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei has recently launched two new equity indices for investors that are focused on dividends.</li>
<li>We highlight some similarities and differences with the well-known US S&amp;P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index</li>
<li>We carry out a quick and simple screen of the Nikkei constituents to find the best dividend stocks to buy</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei has recently launched two new equity indices for investors that are focused on dividends.
We highlight some similarities and differences with the well-known US S&amp;P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index
We carry out a quick and simple screen of the Nikkei constituents to find the best dividend stocks to buy


Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celsys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20774:1" rel="noopener">CELSYS (3663 JP)</a> (formerly known as "Artspark") is a name we have been Bullish on in the last few months as it was a high-probability TOPIX Inclusion candidate.</li>
<li>In the last couple of trading days, the stock has popped more than 30%. In this insight, we take a closer look at this situation.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.

CELSYS (3663 JP) (formerly known as "Artspark") is a name we have been Bullish on in the last few months as it was a high-probability TOPIX Inclusion candidate.
In the last couple of trading days, the stock has popped more than 30%. In this insight, we take a closer look at this situation.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2023)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Two weeks ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> released a new Mid-Term Management Plan with a new investment plan, and a new capital plan (100% payout, ¥50/share minimum div til Mar-2026).</li>
<li>Obvious goal: get the stock above ¥1,000/share so YFO's ¥1,000 bid looks unattractive. Then they attacked on a FEFTA basis, saying YFO's foreign entities need permission to go over 10%.</li>
<li>Now Toyo has released a March 2024 forecast, with a ¥63/share dividend and 105% guided payout. The stock popped. LOTS of shares trading. Now only up small. </li>
</ul>


Two weeks ago, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) released a new Mid-Term Management Plan with a new investment plan, and a new capital plan (100% payout, ¥50/share minimum div til Mar-2026).
Obvious goal: get the stock above ¥1,000/share so YFO's ¥1,000 bid looks unattractive. Then they attacked on a FEFTA basis, saying YFO's foreign entities need permission to go over 10%.
Now Toyo has released a March 2024 forecast, with a ¥63/share dividend and 105% guided payout. The stock popped. LOTS of shares trading. Now only up small. 


Toyo Construction FY23 Profit Forecast - 105% Payout = 6.5%, Lots of Shares Changing Hands

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.</li>
<li>But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.</li>
<li>And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.
But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.
And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.


The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX -1.4% post hot PPI print;  Fed's Meister looking at 50bp hike; Tesla: Model Y sells out but Co issues big vehicle recall; AMAT after hours- looks good !</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 133.95;  Japan set to give up yesterday's gains but equities look good; Bridgestone earnings-solid; Good AMAT = Good TEL; Citi cuts Fujitsu</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. Future looks bright for Panasonic, supplier of batteries to Tesla in the US. As the IRA takes effect, Tesla's sales are going through the roof. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX -1.4% post hot PPI print;  Fed's Meister looking at 50bp hike; Tesla: Model Y sells out but Co issues big vehicle recall; AMAT after hours- looks good !
JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 133.95;  Japan set to give up yesterday's gains but equities look good; Bridgestone earnings-solid; Good AMAT = Good TEL; Citi cuts Fujitsu
DAILY NUGGET. Future looks bright for Panasonic, supplier of batteries to Tesla in the US. As the IRA takes effect, Tesla's sales are going through the roof. 


Good Morning Japan |Equities Waver on Hot PPI Print/Higher Rates; Telsa: Good Vs Bad; ARM IPO Risk?

Japan

JAFCO Co., Ltd. forms venture capital groups to invest primarily in domestic and foreign private companies with high potential for future growth.  The Company also provides management services to the groups, makes loans and offers consultation services to the invested companies.

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Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)

Japan Screen | Nikkei Dividend Stocks

The Nikkei recently launched two dividend indices. We carry out a quick and simple screen of the index constituents to find the best dividend...

Mark Chadwick

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2023)

CELSYS has been working for a move to the Prime Market since August 2022 and with the recent rise in share price they could be able to satisfy all...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Toyo Construction FY23 Profit Forecast - 105% Payout = 6.5%, Lots of Shares Changing Hands

In Japan one doesn't usually officially announce the next FY's earnings + dividend forecast before the just-ended year is finalised. Toyo did. ¥63...

Travis Lundy

The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

This year, there is a US$12bn buy to do on 29 March at the close. Historically, performance is pretty good both on a 2-day period, then slumps....

Travis Lundy

Good Morning Japan |Equities Waver on Hot PPI Print/Higher Rates; Telsa: Good Vs Bad; ARM IPO Risk?

Japan likely to start low post US sell off overnight. The NKY is still up 6.1% YTD, so shedding off 100bps isn't a biggie. PM Kishida still in the...

Mark Chadwick

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