Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. </li>
<li>ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. </li>
<li>Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.</li>
</ul>


The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. 
ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. 
Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.


MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>The bank just reported the second year of &gt;25% Net income growth</li>
<li>The allocation of funds out of low return overnight deposits into higher-yielding JGBs is an ongoing trend for at least another 3 years</li>
<li>Bank still undervalued and underowned versus  Megabanks as earnings growth outpaces peers</li>
</ul>


The bank just reported the second year of &gt;25% Net income growth
The allocation of funds out of low return overnight deposits into higher-yielding JGBs is an ongoing trend for at least another 3 years
Bank still undervalued and underowned versus  Megabanks as earnings growth outpaces peers


Japan Post Bank (7182.T) - Delivering Alpha- More to Come

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>We look at the two recent Central Bank decisions and what they mean for our themes </li>
<li>The Iran/US MOU is providing an opportunity in oil and gas stocks</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
We look at the two recent Central Bank decisions and what they mean for our themes 
The Iran/US MOU is providing an opportunity in oil and gas stocks


Overview #65 – A Tale of Two Central Banks

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. </li>
<li>Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. </li>
<li>Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.</li>
</ul>


We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. 
Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. 
Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.


Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

<ul>
<li>New LDP leader and Japanese PM favours interest rate normalisation</li>
<li>This supports our outlook for a strengthening JPY against the USD</li>
<li>The Japanese central bank may now face pressure to raise rates</li>
</ul>


New LDP leader and Japanese PM favours interest rate normalisation
This supports our outlook for a strengthening JPY against the USD
The Japanese central bank may now face pressure to raise rates


Japan

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

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Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

MS&AD commits to sell down its cross-shareholding to zero, proceeds to fund growth, dividends. Core insurance sales improving, with April and May...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Post Bank (7182.T) - Delivering Alpha- More to Come

Despite outperformance over the year, the bank still offers upside given valuation and expected earnings growth over the next three years, together...

Rikki Malik

Overview #65 – A Tale of Two Central Banks

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at recent Central Bank decisions and the Iran/US MOU

Rikki Malik

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

BOJ to meet 23-24 Jan and likely to raise rates possibly by doubling short-term rates, from 0.25% to 0.50%. There are important implications for...

Daniel Tabbush

Banking on the BoJ

New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

MS&AD commits to sell down its cross-shareholding to zero, proceeds to fund growth, dividends. Core insurance sales improving, with April and May...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Post Bank (7182.T) - Delivering Alpha- More to Come

Despite outperformance over the year, the bank still offers upside given valuation and expected earnings growth over the next three years, together...

Rikki Malik

Overview #65 – A Tale of Two Central Banks

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at recent Central Bank decisions and the Iran/US MOU

Rikki Malik

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

BOJ to meet 23-24 Jan and likely to raise rates possibly by doubling short-term rates, from 0.25% to 0.50%. There are important implications for...

Daniel Tabbush

Banking on the BoJ

​New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market

Rikki Malik

New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market