Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Results show dramatically lower NIM, net interest income, but stock gains in spades</li>
<li>The only way to analyze 7182 is to have a view on its stock, bonds, investment gains</li>
<li>Unrealized gains more than doubled to JPY472bn: fire-power remains, but is it valuable?</li>
</ul>


Results show dramatically lower NIM, net interest income, but stock gains in spades
The only way to analyze 7182 is to have a view on its stock, bonds, investment gains
Unrealized gains more than doubled to JPY472bn: fire-power remains, but is it valuable?


Japan Post Bank - JPY234bn in Gains More than Offsets Cratering Net Interest Income

<ul>
<li>Japan Post Bank is no ordinary bank, without much loans, and mostly investments</li>
<li>It is well-known for its US CLO exposure, but also moving more into private equity</li>
<li>Many moving parts to the bank's earnings, where we see downside risk on profit</li>
</ul>


Japan Post Bank is no ordinary bank, without much loans, and mostly investments
It is well-known for its US CLO exposure, but also moving more into private equity
Many moving parts to the bank's earnings, where we see downside risk on profit


Japan Post Bank - Weak Yen, High Topix, US CLO's, Many Moving Parts, Profit Risk

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> was effectively re-IPOed in March when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> offered more than a BILLION shares against the 400mm shares then in float. </li>
<li>It was a huge offering. A huge increase in float. Lots of immediate liquidity. A PERFECT opportunity for the TSE to do an ad hoc FFW change. But they didn't. </li>
<li>Then in June they lowered the FFW (on a technicality). That leaves a big upweight in October. In this insight we measure the opportunity.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) was effectively re-IPOed in March when Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) offered more than a BILLION shares against the 400mm shares then in float. 
It was a huge offering. A huge increase in float. Lots of immediate liquidity. A PERFECT opportunity for the TSE to do an ad hoc FFW change. But they didn't. 
Then in June they lowered the FFW (on a technicality). That leaves a big upweight in October. In this insight we measure the opportunity.


Japan Post Bank (7182) - The October TOPIX FFW Adjustment

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>In the IPO space, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/concord-biotech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36267:1" rel="noopener">Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN)</a> and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbfc-finance-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36713:1" rel="noopener">SBFC Finance Limited (1547353D IN)</a> opened their respective IPO bookbuilds this week.</li>
<li>On the Placements front, India began picking up steam post-earnings seasons.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
In the IPO space, Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN) and  SBFC Finance Limited (1547353D IN) opened their respective IPO bookbuilds this week.
On the Placements front, India began picking up steam post-earnings seasons.


ECM Weekly (6th August 2023) - Concord Biotech, SBFC Fin, Fadu, Mitsui Fudosan, Capitaland Ascott

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>In the IPO space, the coming week will see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nusantara-sejahtera-raya-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39908:1" rel="noopener">Cinema XXI listing.</a>
</li>
<li>Given that we are in the middle of earnings season, there were no new placements this week.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
In the IPO space, the coming week will see Cinema XXI listing.

Given that we are in the middle of earnings season, there were no new placements this week.


ECM Weekly (30th July 2023) - Tryt, Genda, Cinema XXI, Abacus, Robosense, Qiniu, Muthoot, LianLian

Japan

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

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Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Japan Post Bank - JPY234bn in Gains More than Offsets Cratering Net Interest Income

Japan Post Bank profit is entirely driven by gains on bonds, stocks, securities, and this can continue. It may though be considered low quality,...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Post Bank - Weak Yen, High Topix, US CLO's, Many Moving Parts, Profit Risk

With Travis Lundy new insight on TOPIX changes that will mean more weighting likely for Japan Post Bank and much weaker JPY now, makes it...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Post Bank (7182) - The October TOPIX FFW Adjustment

Japan Post Bank will have a JPY 200bn+ TOPIX upweight in October about 10 weeks from now. That will be about 20% of Real World Float. JPB is rich...

Travis Lundy

ECM Weekly (6th August 2023) - Concord Biotech, SBFC Fin, Fadu, Mitsui Fudosan, Capitaland Ascott

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Clarence Chu

ECM Weekly (30th July 2023) - Tryt, Genda, Cinema XXI, Abacus, Robosense, Qiniu, Muthoot, LianLian

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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