Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is no good reason to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>'s dip until the offering. It's unlikely to earn the ROE to deserve the PBR it has versus peers.</li>
<li>Brookfield and EIG/MidOcean's revised NBIO will garner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> board support; however, the terms are weird and unfair to investors holding fewer than 100k shares. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sats-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19962:1" rel="noopener">SATS (SATS SP)</a> rights offer is not actually a surprise. Not at all. Passive funds will exercise. </li>
</ul>


There is no good reason to buy Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)'s dip until the offering. It's unlikely to earn the ROE to deserve the PBR it has versus peers.
Brookfield and EIG/MidOcean's revised NBIO will garner Origin Energy (ORG AU) board support; however, the terms are weird and unfair to investors holding fewer than 100k shares. 

SATS (SATS SP) rights offer is not actually a surprise. Not at all. Passive funds will exercise. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Origin Energy, SATS, China Renaissance, Sembcorp Marine

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> is looking to trim its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> by a third, as per Reuters. </li>
<li>The deal would be worth around US$9bn and could come as soon as next month.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the news and take an early look at the possible selldown.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) is looking to trim its stake in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) by a third, as per Reuters. 
The deal would be worth around US$9bn and could come as soon as next month.
In this note, we talk about the news and take an early look at the possible selldown.


Japan Post Bank Possible Placement - Here We Go Again with the US$9bn Overhang

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Overnight a Reuters article suggested <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> had started talks to sell a near 30%) stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>, the first sale since IPO. </li>
<li>A sale is designed with two aims: 1) the TSE requires a 35% tradable share ratio, and 2) JPH is supposed to lower holdings in JPB to &lt;50% by 2025.</li>
<li>This event may include a buyback, and has moving parts, and flows on the back end, but fundamentally a sale would effectively constitute a "re-IPO" of the shares.</li>
</ul>


Overnight a Reuters article suggested Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) had started talks to sell a near 30%) stake in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), the first sale since IPO. 
A sale is designed with two aims: 1) the TSE requires a 35% tradable share ratio, and 2) JPH is supposed to lower holdings in JPB to &lt;50% by 2025.
This event may include a buyback, and has moving parts, and flows on the back end, but fundamentally a sale would effectively constitute a "re-IPO" of the shares.


Japan Post Holdings To Effectively "Re-IPO" Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX -2% overnight to close below key 4090 suport;  Bonds sell off, USD Bid as cyclicals hit on sticky inflation view; Walmart, Home Depot downbeat outlook hits Sentiment </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 135; Inflation here too as JGB 10Y breaches 0.5%;  Toyota EV Move;  Japan Condo px-es hit records; Bullish Machinery Sector Upgrades</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. Toyota EV shift has started. Rather than Toyota, watch the supply chain - Denso in particular stands to benefit.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX -2% overnight to close below key 4090 suport;  Bonds sell off, USD Bid as cyclicals hit on sticky inflation view; Walmart, Home Depot downbeat outlook hits Sentiment 
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 135; Inflation here too as JGB 10Y breaches 0.5%;  Toyota EV Move;  Japan Condo px-es hit records; Bullish Machinery Sector Upgrades
DAILY NUGGET. Toyota EV shift has started. Rather than Toyota, watch the supply chain - Denso in particular stands to benefit.


Good Morning Japan | SPX Plunges Below Key 4000 on Inflation Fears; Toyota EV Shift Begins NOW

Equity Capital Markets

Amvis Holdings Inc / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amvis-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31511:1" rel="noopener">Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP)</a> (AH)’s founder aims to raise around US$250m via a secondary follow-on offering.</li>
<li>The deal will increase the free-float of the stock and will lead to the stock being transferred to the Prime segment.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP) (AH)’s founder aims to raise around US$250m via a secondary follow-on offering.
The deal will increase the free-float of the stock and will lead to the stock being transferred to the Prime segment.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Amvis Holdings Placement - Has Done Exceptionally Well, Now It's Prime Time

Japan

Japan Post Holdings Co. Ltd. operates post stations, banks, and insurance business. The Company offers letters and goods transportation services, stamp sales, deposits, loans, and insurance products.

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Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Origin Energy, SATS, China Renaissance, Sembcorp Marine

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Post Bank Possible Placement - Here We Go Again with the US$9bn Overhang

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) is looking to trim its stake in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) by a third, as per Reuters. The deal could be worth US$9bn...

Sumeet Singh

Japan Post Holdings To Effectively "Re-IPO" Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

A Reuters article out suggests Japan Post Holdings wants to dispose of JPY 1.2trln of Japan Post Bank shares through an offer and buyback by FY...

Travis Lundy

Good Morning Japan | SPX Plunges Below Key 4000 on Inflation Fears; Toyota EV Shift Begins NOW

US back with a inflation fear driven equity sell off; USDJPY weakens to 135; JGB 10Y breaches 0.5% as BOJ gets tested; Toyota EV Move; JP Condo...

Mark Chadwick

Amvis Holdings Placement - Has Done Exceptionally Well, Now It's Prime Time

Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP) (AH)’s founder aims to raise around US$250m via a secondary follow-on offering. In this note, we will run the deal...

Sumeet Singh

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