Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite the steady growth of Rakuten Ichiba, the Internet Services segment’s overall profitability followed a declining trend due to investments in early stage businesses.</li>
<li>However, the burden on the segment’s profitability from these early stage investments is quickly dissipating alongside the growth in cross use of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>’s e-commerce platforms.</li>
<li>In addition, the the JV with Japan Post is also starting to improve the efficiency of logistics operations, resulting in quarterly cost savings in the range of ¥3.0-4.0bn.</li>
</ul>


Despite the steady growth of Rakuten Ichiba, the Internet Services segment’s overall profitability followed a declining trend due to investments in early stage businesses.
However, the burden on the segment’s profitability from these early stage investments is quickly dissipating alongside the growth in cross use of Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)’s e-commerce platforms.
In addition, the the JV with Japan Post is also starting to improve the efficiency of logistics operations, resulting in quarterly cost savings in the range of ¥3.0-4.0bn.


Rakuten Internet Services: Getting Back to Growth

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

<ul>
<li>Japan Post revised up NP guidance significantly with the post office business seeing a NP guidance boost of ¥60bn to ¥80bn.</li>
<li>The real star of the show though was Japan Post Bank where improving net interest income saw a significant boost to NP guidance and the dividend.</li>
<li>Japan Post Insurance did not revise up but is tracking to generate a YoY NP increase rather than the fall it has guided for.</li>
</ul>


Japan Post revised up NP guidance significantly with the post office business seeing a NP guidance boost of ¥60bn to ¥80bn.
The real star of the show though was Japan Post Bank where improving net interest income saw a significant boost to NP guidance and the dividend.
Japan Post Insurance did not revise up but is tracking to generate a YoY NP increase rather than the fall it has guided for.


Japan Post – Big Upward Revision Should Get Bigger

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Singapore Press, Siam Future, 51job, Kunlun, Shinsei Bank

Travis Lundy

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> Offering is likely to price today, the first day of its Pricing Period. 
Two weeks ago I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-holdings-world-s-largest-cleanup-trade-announced-story-and-index-implications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:58555" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings - World's Largest Cleanup Trade Announced - Story and Index Implications</a> and noted that this was likely to be the last equity offering that Japan Post Holdings would ever do. 
It was cheap, and it was a nice clean setup.
That part hasn't changed. Some other things have, and they merit attention.

The Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Offering is likely to price today, the first day of its Pricing Period. 
Two weeks ago I wrote Japan Post Holdings - World's Largest Cleanup Trade Announced - Story and Index Implications and noted that this was likely to be the last equity offering that Japan Post Holdings would ever do. 
It was cheap, and it was a nice clean setup.
That part hasn't changed. Some other things have, and they merit attention. 

Japan Post Holdings Offering - Buy Weakness, Then Buy More

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Japan Post's decline is on track toward our buy zone, but Friday's high sell volume is concerning on the downside gaps registered late last week. 826 is the ideal support focus for a long.Break below 900 pivot support in line and seeing downside momentum (downside gaps). 900 is now fresh resistance for those keen on the short side.We need to see selling pressure ease up before we jumping into a long (a slower price decline starting with sell volumes dropping). Friday's sell spike needs time to exhaust.800 is macro support as the more aggressive buy zone.

Japan Post's decline is on track toward our buy zone, but Friday's high sell volume is concerning on the downside gaps registered late last week. 826 is the ideal support focus for a long.Break below 900 pivot support in line and seeing downside momentum (downside gaps). 900 is now fresh resistance for those keen on the short side.We need to see selling pressure ease up before we jumping into a long (a slower price decline starting with sell volumes dropping). Friday's sell spike needs time to exhaust.800 is macro support as the more aggressive buy zone.

Japan Post Below 900 - Reaching for Our Buy Zone

Japan

Japan Post Holdings Co. Ltd. operates post stations, banks, and insurance business. The Company offers letters and goods transportation services, stamp sales, deposits, loans, and insurance products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)

Rakuten Internet Services: Getting Back to Growth

The burden on Rakuten's Internet Services profitability from investments in early stage investments is quickly dissipating alongside the growth in...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Post – Big Upward Revision Should Get Bigger

Japan Post Holdings 2Q results should highlight to investors that guidance is absurdly conservative and improving net interest income at the bank...

Mio Kato

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Singapore Press, Siam Future, 51job, Kunlun, Shinsei Bank

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Post Holdings Offering - Buy Weakness, Then Buy More

JPH (6178 JP) will price today. At 7x PER and 5.7% div yield, the Offering sells itself, but better, there is 15% of ADV to buy back every day for...

Travis Lundy

Japan Post Below 900 - Reaching for Our Buy Zone

Japan Post's decline is on track toward our buy zone, but Friday's high sell volume is concerning on the downside gaps registered late last week....

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)