Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>’s 3Q21 results were just as excellent as we suggested in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-tobacco-turning-a-corner" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco: Turning a Corner</a>, with revenue and adjusted operating profit increasing 10.6% and 20.0% YoY respectively to ¥621.5bn (consensus ¥574.7bn) and ¥184.7bn (consensus ¥123.7bn).</li>
<li>The annual dividend was raised by ¥10.0 (7.6%) to ¥140 per share but remains around ¥14-20 per share below our previous estimate. We think this leaves options open for JT to raise the 2021 dividend yet again in the fourth quarter.</li>
</ul>



Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)’s 3Q21 results were just as excellent as we suggested in Japan Tobacco: Turning a Corner, with revenue and adjusted operating profit increasing 10.6% and 20.0% YoY respectively to ¥621.5bn (consensus ¥574.7bn) and ¥184.7bn (consensus ¥123.7bn).
The annual dividend was raised by ¥10.0 (7.6%) to ¥140 per share but remains around ¥14-20 per share below our previous estimate. We think this leaves options open for JT to raise the 2021 dividend yet again in the fourth quarter.


Japan Tobacco: Ploom X Is Taking the Fight to IQOS

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<p>For our next Webinar, we are excited to welcome back Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> and the LightStream Research team, as they present unique views into approaching the Japanese market. LightStream offers insights gleaned from their expertise on the ground, engaging with company management and bridging business and culture gaps between Japan and western Investors.</p><h3>The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 1 September 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.</h3><div class="content-highlight"><h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=89011968584" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2></div><p>Mio Kato has over 15 years of experience looking at Japanese and Asian cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos. He was previously with FrontPoint Partners LP, Arrowhawk Capital Partners, and Uzabase before founding LightStream Research.</p><p>LightStream Research conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia. The team supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available. They further refine the accuracy of their insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.</p>

For our next Webinar, we are excited to welcome back Insight Provider Mio Kato and the LightStream Research team, as they present unique views into approaching the Japanese market. LightStream offers insights gleaned from their expertise on the ground, engaging with company management and bridging business and culture gaps between Japan and western Investors.The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 1 September 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.Register for the Webinar hereMio Kato has over 15 years of experience looking at Japanese and Asian cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos. He was previously with FrontPoint Partners LP, Arrowhawk Capital Partners, and Uzabase before founding LightStream Research.LightStream Research conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia. The team supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available. They further refine the accuracy of their insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Smartkarma Webinar | Understanding Japanese Companies: Insights from LightStream Research

<ul>
<li>After a lengthy period of weakness which saw shares decline more than 62% to ¥1,812 per share by June 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a> seems to have turned a corner with the share price trending upwards (for a considerable period) for the first time in a 5-6 year time period.</li>
<li>JT’s valuation looks cheap and we think that there is potential for multiple expansion alongside a dividend hike and strong OP performance in the second half of the year.</li>
</ul>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/223/975/original/image_96854996521629110963958.png?1629110966" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="223975"></figure>


After a lengthy period of weakness which saw shares decline more than 62% to ¥1,812 per share by June 2020, Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) seems to have turned a corner with the share price trending upwards (for a considerable period) for the first time in a 5-6 year time period.
JT’s valuation looks cheap and we think that there is potential for multiple expansion alongside a dividend hike and strong OP performance in the second half of the year.



Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Materials and Real Estate sectors, and decreased in the Information Technology, Financials and Consumer Staples sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-kasei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19771:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Kasei (3407 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus Corp (7733 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano Inc (7309 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Industrials, Materials and Health Care sectors, and decreased in the Communication Services, Financials and Consumer Staples sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> during the week. This was the first week where short increased substantially in Korea and comes a week ahead of the end of the short sell ban.</p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-steel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:962:1" rel="noopener">China Steel (2002 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4591:1" rel="noopener">China Airlines (2610 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-cement" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19736:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Cement (1101 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innolux-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4509:1" rel="noopener">Innolux Corp (3481 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genius-electronic-optical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9632:1" rel="noopener">Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12688:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics (2308 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Meituan (3690 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) and Alibaba Group (9988 HK) while there was short covering on Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) and Tencent Holdings (700 HK). Shorts increased in the Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Materials and Real Estate sectors, and decreased in the Information Technology, Financials and Consumer Staples sectors.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Asahi Kasei (3407 JP), Olympus Corp (7733 JP) and Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) while shorts decreased on Orix Corp (8591 JP), NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP), Shimano Inc (7309 JP) and Japan Tobacco (2914 JP). Shorts increased in the Industrials, Materials and Health Care sectors, and decreased in the Communication Services, Financials and Consumer Staples sectors.In Korea, shorts increased on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS) during the week. This was the first week where short increased substantially in Korea and comes a week ahead of the end of the short sell ban.Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were China Steel (2002 TT), China Airlines (2610 TT), United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT) and Taiwan Cement (1101 TT) while shorts were covered on Innolux Corp (3481 TT), Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT), Delta Electronics (2308 TT) and Pegatron Corp (4938 TT).

Asia Shorts: Meituan, Kuaishou, Zhongsheng, Toshiba, Monex, Orix, Samsung, HMC, China Steel, Innolux

Equity Capital Markets

RLX Technology Inc / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rlx-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31113:1" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Inc (RLX US)</a>, China’s number one branded e-vapor company with a market share of 62.6% of the closed-system e-vapor products, has announced its indicative pricing range at $8-10 per ADS which implies an EV between $11.4-14.3bn.</p><p>At the top end of the IPO price range, our 2022 revenue estimate of $867.7m (Revenue CAGR of 56% through 2019-22) places RLX on 16.5x 2022 EV/Sales. With revenue growth of 93% YoY in 9M20, domestic market share of 62.6% and an overseas footprint in 100 countries by the end of 2020, we believe our revenue estimate is quite reasonable.</p><p>E-vapor OEM, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International (6969 HK)</a>, whose 2019-22 revenue CAGR is 35% is currently trading at 2022 EV/Sales of 19.0x, 15% above RLX’s 2022 EV/Sales multiple. Therefore, RLX’s 16.5x 2022 EV/Sales multiple does not seem so unreasonable, especially considering the current behavior of capital markets.</p><p>The IPO valuation looks attractive and possibly have a decent upside in the short term. However, there are some significant risks associated with investing in RLX which investors need to be aware of before deciding to subscribe to the IPO.</p>

RLX Technology Inc (RLX US), China’s number one branded e-vapor company with a market share of 62.6% of the closed-system e-vapor products, has announced its indicative pricing range at $8-10 per ADS which implies an EV between $11.4-14.3bn.At the top end of the IPO price range, our 2022 revenue estimate of $867.7m (Revenue CAGR of 56% through 2019-22) places RLX on 16.5x 2022 EV/Sales. With revenue growth of 93% YoY in 9M20, domestic market share of 62.6% and an overseas footprint in 100 countries by the end of 2020, we believe our revenue estimate is quite reasonable.E-vapor OEM, Smoore International (6969 HK), whose 2019-22 revenue CAGR is 35% is currently trading at 2022 EV/Sales of 19.0x, 15% above RLX’s 2022 EV/Sales multiple. Therefore, RLX’s 16.5x 2022 EV/Sales multiple does not seem so unreasonable, especially considering the current behavior of capital markets.The IPO valuation looks attractive and possibly have a decent upside in the short term. However, there are some significant risks associated with investing in RLX which investors need to be aware of before deciding to subscribe to the IPO.

Japan

Japan Tobacco, Inc. operates as an tobacco product company. The Company manufactures, markets and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products internationally. Japan Tobacco is also engaged in pharmaceutical and food businesses.

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Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)

Japan Tobacco: Ploom X Is Taking the Fight to IQOS

We believe JT’s 2021 DPS estimate remains conservative and there’s room for around ¥14-20 per share upside in 4Q21, especially considering that...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Smartkarma Webinar | Understanding Japanese Companies: Insights from LightStream Research

On 1 September, 5pm SGT, join us for a Webinar with Mio Kato and the LightStream Research team, as they present unique views into approaching the...

Smartkarma Research

Japan Tobacco: Turning a Corner

After a lengthy period of weakness which saw shares decline more than 62% by June 2020, JT seems to have turned a corner with the share price...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Asia Shorts: Meituan, Kuaishou, Zhongsheng, Toshiba, Monex, Orix, Samsung, HMC, China Steel, Innolux

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

RLX Technology IPO: Risk of Unknowns

RLX Technology, China’s number one branded e-vapor company with a market share of 62.6%, has announced its indicative pricing range at $8-10 per...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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