Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.</li>
<li>Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls</li>
<li>Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.
Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls
Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.


Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Loads of moves to address but we’ve condensed our scope for you to catch up on the handful we dedicate marked attention</li><li>BoJ inflation forecast and presumed policy-change. Mounting pressure on the CNY (and CNY).</li><li>Monetary trends in USD and EUR. The continued selloff in US Treasuries. Biden’s trip to Israel.</li></ul>

Loads of moves to address but we’ve condensed our scope for you to catch up on the handful we dedicate marked attentionBoJ inflation forecast and presumed policy-change. Mounting pressure on the CNY (and CNY).Monetary trends in USD and EUR. The continued selloff in US Treasuries. Biden’s trip to Israel.

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, JPY & CNY, Monetary trends, UST selloff & Biden’s visit in Israel

<ul><li>Yesterday, Reuters wrote an article with a few sources hinting at another increase in the inflation forecast profile of the BoJ at the meeting concluding Oct 31.</li><li>If this was not a deliberate trial balloon to try and push USDJPY lower from the 150 mark (we doubt that), then we ought to take this message seriously.</li><li>The decision to increase the inflation forecast again is essentially a no-brainer conclusion given how firm inflation has been relative to forecasts, but the big question is whether it matters for the policy decision?</li></ul>

Yesterday, Reuters wrote an article with a few sources hinting at another increase in the inflation forecast profile of the BoJ at the meeting concluding Oct 31.If this was not a deliberate trial balloon to try and push USDJPY lower from the 150 mark (we doubt that), then we ought to take this message seriously.The decision to increase the inflation forecast again is essentially a no-brainer conclusion given how firm inflation has been relative to forecasts, but the big question is whether it matters for the policy decision?

Japan Watch: Time to care about the BoJ again!

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) credibility could be tested as it exits its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) and yield curve control (YCC) due to political pressure.  </li>
<li>The European Central Bank strongly hinted that the peak in short-term interest rates may have been reached. Markets seem to be betting on a spring decline in Eurozone interest rates. </li>
<li>The latest Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting confirmed a higher for longer policy stance in 2024, although the FOMC will allegedly receive more dovish voting members. </li>
</ul>


The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) credibility could be tested as it exits its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) and yield curve control (YCC) due to political pressure.  
The European Central Bank strongly hinted that the peak in short-term interest rates may have been reached. Markets seem to be betting on a spring decline in Eurozone interest rates. 
The latest Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting confirmed a higher for longer policy stance in 2024, although the FOMC will allegedly receive more dovish voting members. 


BoJ Risks Major Credibility Test, While Fed and ECB Send Different Signals About Peak Rates

<ul>
<li>The Japanese market is always puzzling for Western investors, even if they are seldom overly involved in it unless they borrow in JPY for FX carry trading.</li>
<li>Let’s take the conclusions up front:– The BoJ is en route for the largest-ever nominal purchase of JGBs in 2023 despite “policy normalization” efforts, which is a large discrepancy to the narrative that they are actually tightening.</li>
<li>They are NOT from a balance sheet perspective.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese market is always puzzling for Western investors, even if they are seldom overly involved in it unless they borrow in JPY for FX carry trading.
Let’s take the conclusions up front:– The BoJ is en route for the largest-ever nominal purchase of JGBs in 2023 despite “policy normalization” efforts, which is a large discrepancy to the narrative that they are actually tightening.
They are NOT from a balance sheet perspective.


Japan Watch: How will Ueda cope with all of the “pauses”?

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Japan Treasury (JAPAN GOVT)

Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal; Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again; Equities still look (too) expensive on most...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, JPY & CNY, Monetary trends, UST selloff & Biden’s visit in Israel

Welcome to this week’s edition of our weekly recurring ‘5 Things We Watch’. Which fool said macro was boring? Loads of moves to address but we’ve...

Steno Research

Japan Watch: Time to care about the BoJ again!

Yesterday, Reuters wrote an article with a few sources hinting at another increase in the inflation forecast profile of the BoJ at the meeting...

Steno Research

BoJ Risks Major Credibility Test, While Fed and ECB Send Different Signals About Peak Rates

The BoJ's credibility will be tested in 2024 while exiting NIRP and YCC due to political pressure Meanwhile, both the ECB and Fed are at or close...

DeSaque Macro Research

Japan Watch: How will Ueda cope with all of the “pauses”?

The Japanese market is always puzzling for Western investors, even if they are seldom overly involved in it unless they borrow in JPY for FX carry...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)