HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The HSI has already recovered to 2.2% above the pre-"reciprocal tariff" level, and the top 10 best-performing constituents have registered an average return of 15.6%.</li>
<li>Despite so, there are still 40 under-performing stocks, with 32 of them remain in the negative zone with an average of 4.8% loss. </li>
<li>Among them, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> look well-positioned to catch up.</li>
</ul>


The HSI has already recovered to 2.2% above the pre-"reciprocal tariff" level, and the top 10 best-performing constituents have registered an average return of 15.6%.
Despite so, there are still 40 under-performing stocks, with 32 of them remain in the negative zone with an average of 4.8% loss. 
Among them, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK), Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), BYD Electronics (285 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK) look well-positioned to catch up.


HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> ended on 31 March, the results will be announced on 16 May and will be implemented on 6 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> could be added to the index while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a> could be deleted from the index.</li>
<li>There are other stocks with big flows due to a change in the FreeFloat-Adjusted Factor (FAF) methodology for Secondary Listings that will be implemented from the rebalance in June.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance of the HSCEI ended on 31 March, the results will be announced on 16 May and will be implemented on 6 June.

Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) could be added to the index while Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) could be deleted from the index.
There are other stocks with big flows due to a change in the FreeFloat-Adjusted Factor (FAF) methodology for Secondary Listings that will be implemented from the rebalance in June.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace Sunny Optical (2382 HK)

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>PAGD achieved a dual increase in revenue and profit in 25Q1, which was mainly driven by the revenue from F-end business and B-end corporate health management business (up 43% YoY).</li>
<li>We always question PAGD's capability of expanding new customers and business externally, apart from relying on the resource support of Ping A Group.This makes PAGD difficult to match high valuations.</li>
<li>Our forecast for 2025 revenue is RMB5.1 billion.If based on P/S of 3x, market value is RMB15.3 billion. Market value of RMB24 billion could be the peak of PAGD’s valuation</li>
</ul>


PAGD achieved a dual increase in revenue and profit in 25Q1, which was mainly driven by the revenue from F-end business and B-end corporate health management business (up 43% YoY).
We always question PAGD's capability of expanding new customers and business externally, apart from relying on the resource support of Ping A Group.This makes PAGD difficult to match high valuations.
Our forecast for 2025 revenue is RMB5.1 billion.If based on P/S of 3x, market value is RMB15.3 billion. Market value of RMB24 billion could be the peak of PAGD’s valuation


Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) 25Q1 Results - Concerns Behind and the Valuation Outlook

<ul>
<li>Although DeepSeek's continuous updates, iterations, and deep integration with more and more healthcare enterprises in China will bring positive market sentiment, we have seen certain limitations and even risks behind.</li>
<li>Currently, AI healthcare relies heavily on government subsidies or hardware sales in China, which lacks sustainable payment scenarios and profit model. The data security/privacy/compliance issue may not be completely solve.</li>
<li>For the companies that have integrated with DeepSeek, investors need to verify their afterwards financial performance and fundamentals. If it does not meet expectations, investors are recommended sell in time.</li>
</ul>


Although DeepSeek's continuous updates, iterations, and deep integration with more and more healthcare enterprises in China will bring positive market sentiment, we have seen certain limitations and even risks behind.
Currently, AI healthcare relies heavily on government subsidies or hardware sales in China, which lacks sustainable payment scenarios and profit model. The data security/privacy/compliance issue may not be completely solve.
For the companies that have integrated with DeepSeek, investors need to verify their afterwards financial performance and fundamentals. If it does not meet expectations, investors are recommended sell in time.


DeekSeek May Not Be The "Game Changer" In China Healthcare - Time to Be Rational

<ul>
<li>PAGD’s 2024 performance beat expectations. The support of Ping An Group remains the key for PAGD to turning losses into profits. A breakthrough point is the Senior care services business.</li>
<li>The CAGR of PAGD’s revenue could be 12%-15% from 2025 to 2027, and revenue in 2027 may reach RMB6.5-7 billion. The peak revenue scale could be just about RMB8 billion.</li>
<li>Adjusted net profit could reach RMB250-300 million in 2025 and exceed RMB400 million in 2027.If based on P/S of 2-3x, revenue of RMB6.5-7 billion in 2027, valuation is RMB13-21 billion.</li>
</ul>


PAGD’s 2024 performance beat expectations. The support of Ping An Group remains the key for PAGD to turning losses into profits. A breakthrough point is the Senior care services business.
The CAGR of PAGD’s revenue could be 12%-15% from 2025 to 2027, and revenue in 2027 may reach RMB6.5-7 billion. The peak revenue scale could be just about RMB8 billion.
Adjusted net profit could reach RMB250-300 million in 2025 and exceed RMB400 million in 2027.If based on P/S of 2-3x, revenue of RMB6.5-7 billion in 2027, valuation is RMB13-21 billion.


Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) - Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

China

JD Health International Inc. operates drug stores. The Company retails Chinese and Western medicines, nutrition products, health care products, and other products. JD Health International markets its products throughout China.

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JD Health International (6618 HK)

HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace Sunny Optical (2382 HK)

Pop Mart could replace Sunny Optical in the index. There will be inflows for NetEase, Trip.com and Baidu due to a FAF methodology change. Pop Mart...

Brian Freitas

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) 25Q1 Results - Concerns Behind and the Valuation Outlook

PAGD sees performance growth in 25Q1 driven by F-end/B-end businesses, but questions remain about its ability to expand externally without Ping A...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

DeekSeek May Not Be The "Game Changer" In China Healthcare - Time to Be Rational

DeepSeek's integration with companies brings market optimism, but risks remain due to unsustainable profit model and data security...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) - Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

Ping An Group's support has helped PAGD turn loss into profits in 2024, but the peak revenue scale may be just about RMB8 billion. Market value of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

​HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace Sunny Optical (2382 HK)

Pop Mart could replace Sunny Optical in the index. There will be inflows for NetEase, Trip.com and Baidu due to a FAF methodology change. Pop Mart...

Brian Freitas

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) 25Q1 Results - Concerns Behind and the Valuation Outlook

​PAGD sees performance growth in 25Q1 driven by F-end/B-end businesses, but questions remain about its ability to expand externally without Ping A...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

DeekSeek May Not Be The "Game Changer" In China Healthcare - Time to Be Rational

​DeepSeek's integration with companies brings market optimism, but risks remain due to unsustainable profit model and data security...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) - Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

​Ping An Group's support has helped PAGD turn loss into profits in 2024, but the peak revenue scale may be just about RMB8 billion. Market value of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...

PAGD sees performance growth in 25Q1 driven by F-end/B-end businesses, but questions remain about its ability to expand externally without Ping A...

DeepSeek's integration with companies brings market optimism, but risks remain due to unsustainable profit model and data security...

Ping An Group's support has helped PAGD turn loss into profits in 2024, but the peak revenue scale may be just about RMB8 billion. Market value of...