Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped again somewhat but still high at HK$625bn. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$61bn which is HUGE.</li>
<li>The flows here are still striking. &gt;25% of the top 100 most liquid Southbound eligible stocks saw SOUTHBOUND buy more than 10% of weekly traded volume to March 12.</li>
<li>A summary of important China-related stock news as I saw it this week is included. </li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped again somewhat but still high at HK$625bn. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$61bn which is HUGE.
The flows here are still striking. &gt;25% of the top 100 most liquid Southbound eligible stocks saw SOUTHBOUND buy more than 10% of weekly traded volume to March 12.
A summary of important China-related stock news as I saw it this week is included. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech and Banks Still Leading

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 14th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, Guotai Junan Securities, Tencent, Kuaishou, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, SMIC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 14th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Guotai Junan Securities, Tencent, Kuaishou, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, SMIC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 14th): Alibaba, Guotai Junan, Tencent, Kuaishou, Xiaomi, Geely, SMIC

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recent surge of share price is driven by the craze for DeepSeek/AI in digital healthcare, not the improvement of fundamentals or effective validation of business model.So, the rally won’t last.</li>
<li>Although AI is a great story, the extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial benefits to PAGD remains to be verified. Small revenue scale may lead to low valuation premium.</li>
<li>PAGD is expected to turn loss into profits in 2024. Short-term valuation should be lower than peers. When PAGD achieve profitability/revenue in large scale, P/B would approach the industry average.</li>
</ul>


Recent surge of share price is driven by the craze for DeepSeek/AI in digital healthcare, not the improvement of fundamentals or effective validation of business model.So, the rally won’t last.
Although AI is a great story, the extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial benefits to PAGD remains to be verified. Small revenue scale may lead to low valuation premium.
PAGD is expected to turn loss into profits in 2024. Short-term valuation should be lower than peers. When PAGD achieve profitability/revenue in large scale, P/B would approach the industry average.


Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) - The Mandatory General Offer and DeepSeek Story May Not Turn the Tide

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

WeDoctor Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>According to PHIP and Crunchbase, We Doctor’s most recently reported valuation was a ~$411M Series F led by HongShan Capital and Millennium Management at a ~$6.7B post-money valuation.  </li>
<li>My ballpark estimates suggest that IPO valuation target may be below last round valuation. However, I do not expect a significant discount to Series F post-money valuation of ~$6.7B.</li>
<li>I think investors will ask what is the revenue growth trajectory ahead (FY25-FY28) and why gross profit margins can’t be higher? What is the path to positive free cash flow?</li>
</ul>


According to PHIP and Crunchbase, We Doctor’s most recently reported valuation was a ~$411M Series F led by HongShan Capital and Millennium Management at a ~$6.7B post-money valuation.  
My ballpark estimates suggest that IPO valuation target may be below last round valuation. However, I do not expect a significant discount to Series F post-money valuation of ~$6.7B.
I think investors will ask what is the revenue growth trajectory ahead (FY25-FY28) and why gross profit margins can’t be higher? What is the path to positive free cash flow?


We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering

China

JD Health International Inc. operates drug stores. The Company retails Chinese and Western medicines, nutrition products, health care products, and other products. JD Health International markets its products throughout China.

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JD Health International (6618 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech and Banks Still Leading

SOUTHBOUND Connect volumes slow down in gross but record very high net. Net buying bias is still significant. Tech, and tech-ish consumer...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 14th): Alibaba, Guotai Junan, Tencent, Kuaishou, Xiaomi, Geely, SMIC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Guotai Junan Securities, Tencent, Kuaishou,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) - The Mandatory General Offer and DeepSeek Story May Not Turn the Tide

Surge in share price is driven by AI craze in digital healthcare. If the fundamentals do not improve with the development/iteration of AI, then...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering

In my insight, I discuss expectations from upcoming We Doctor Holdings IPO and provide some thoughts on IPO valuation target ahead of the offering...

Andrei Zakharov

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HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech and Banks Still Leading

SOUTHBOUND Connect volumes slow down in gross but record very high net. Net buying bias is still significant. Tech, and tech-ish consumer...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 14th): Alibaba, Guotai Junan, Tencent, Kuaishou, Xiaomi, Geely, SMIC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Guotai Junan Securities, Tencent, Kuaishou,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) - The Mandatory General Offer and DeepSeek Story May Not Turn the Tide

​Surge in share price is driven by AI craze in digital healthcare. If the fundamentals do not improve with the development/iteration of AI, then...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering

In my insight, I discuss expectations from upcoming We Doctor Holdings IPO and provide some thoughts on IPO valuation target ahead of the offering...

Andrei Zakharov

Surge in share price is driven by AI craze in digital healthcare. If the fundamentals do not improve with the development/iteration of AI, then...