Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Four days into life as a publicly-traded company, SHEIN shares are down more than 21%</li>
<li>If OP margin remains depressed in FY27, it appears SHEIN is still trading ~18x forward EPS</li>
<li>However, even a modest OP margin lift next year implies a PER of just 11-14x</li>
</ul>


Four days into life as a publicly-traded company, SHEIN shares are down more than 21%
If OP margin remains depressed in FY27, it appears SHEIN is still trading ~18x forward EPS
However, even a modest OP margin lift next year implies a PER of just 11-14x


SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Has OP Margin Bottomed? If It Has, SHEIN Is Approaching Value

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US: Xiaomi’s Africa smartphone sales outgrow market in 2Q24 (+/+/-)</li>
<li>XPEV US:Xpeng Motors' revenue in the second quarter was in line with our expectations, and its losses were greater than our expectations(/)</li>
<li>1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US:In the 33rd week of 2024, the delivery of new energy vehicles by Xiaomi fluctuated, Leapmotor and Li were strong, and NIO remained weak  (/////////)</li>
</ul>


1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US: Xiaomi’s Africa smartphone sales outgrow market in 2Q24 (+/+/-)
XPEV US:Xpeng Motors' revenue in the second quarter was in line with our expectations, and its losses were greater than our expectations(/)
1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US:In the 33rd week of 2024, the delivery of new energy vehicles by Xiaomi fluctuated, Leapmotor and Li were strong, and NIO remained weak  (/////////)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/XPEV US/1211 HK/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/002352 CH/2618 HK

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>700 HK/BABA US:Taobao Deals App Now Supports WeChat Pay for All Users. (+)</li>
<li>700 HK: &lt;Arena Breakout: Infinite&gt; Developing AI Technology: Voice-Command Teammates (+)</li>
<li>NTES US: &lt;Where Winds Meet&gt; Final Pre-Launch Test Scheduled for August 28th (+)</li>
</ul>


700 HK/BABA US:Taobao Deals App Now Supports WeChat Pay for All Users. (+)
700 HK: &lt;Arena Breakout: Infinite&gt; Developing AI Technology: Voice-Command Teammates (+)
NTES US: &lt;Where Winds Meet&gt; Final Pre-Launch Test Scheduled for August 28th (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/BABA US/NTES US/JD US/2618 HK/WMT US/BABAUS/AMZNUS/PDDUS/3690HK

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qifu-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36657:1" rel="noopener">Qifu Technology (3660 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/q-technology-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:79:1" rel="noopener">Q Technology Group (1478 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36601:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)</a> disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a> declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.
</li>
</ul>


Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.

Qifu Technology (3660 HK) , Q Technology Group (1478 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 


Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  Country Garden Services (6098 HK) declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Annto Logistics Supply Chain Technology / Equity Capital Markets

Annto Logistics Supply Chain Technology (ANNTO HK)

<ul>
<li>Based on the 20-year manufacturing supply chain management experience of Midea, Annto has deeply understood the pain points in manufacturing such as production rhythm, inventory management, and channel distribution.</li>
<li>A slight decrease in revenue or a slight increase in costs that cannot be passed on could have disproportionately negative impact on Annto’s profitability and could lead to net loss.</li>
<li>Profit margin of JD Logistics is higher than Annto. The scale of JD Logistics is approximately 10 times of Annto. So, we think Annto’s valuation would be lower than JD Logistics.</li>
</ul>


Based on the 20-year manufacturing supply chain management experience of Midea, Annto has deeply understood the pain points in manufacturing such as production rhythm, inventory management, and channel distribution.
A slight decrease in revenue or a slight increase in costs that cannot be passed on could have disproportionately negative impact on Annto’s profitability and could lead to net loss.
Profit margin of JD Logistics is higher than Annto. The scale of JD Logistics is approximately 10 times of Annto. So, we think Annto’s valuation would be lower than JD Logistics.


Pre-IPO Annto Supply Chain Technology - About the Business, Forecast, and Thoughts on Valuation

China

JD Logistics is a technology-driven supply chain solutions and logistics services provider, offering warehousing, distribution, and express and freight delivery. It serves various industries including fast-moving consumer goods, apparel, and automotive. The company is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 2007.

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JD Logistics (2618 HK)

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Has OP Margin Bottomed? If It Has, SHEIN Is Approaching Value

If a potential drop in fuel prices in FY27 lifts core margins up to around 4% next year, it appears SHEIN could be trading below 14x forward PER.

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/XPEV US/1211 HK/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/002352 CH/2618 HK

Xiaomi's smartphone sales in Africa outperform market, Xpeng Motors' Q2 revenue meets but losses exceed expectations, new energy vehicle...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/BABA US/NTES US/JD US/2618 HK/WMT US/BABAUS/AMZNUS/PDDUS/3690HK

Taobao Deals app now accepts WeChat Pay, AI technology in development for <arena infinite breakout:="">, final pre-launch test for <where winds...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

Japan ETF flows have been light after the massive outflow from carry trade unwind. Qifu Tech, Q Tech and JDL all had positive earnings announcement...

David Mudd

Pre-IPO Annto Supply Chain Technology - About the Business, Forecast, and Thoughts on Valuation

Annto has deeply understood the pain points in manufacturing, but low profit margin makes Annto unable to withstand any negative fluctuation....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Has OP Margin Bottomed? If It Has, SHEIN Is Approaching Value

If a potential drop in fuel prices in FY27 lifts core margins up to around 4% next year, it appears SHEIN could be trading below 14x forward PER.

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/XPEV US/1211 HK/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/002352 CH/2618 HK

​Xiaomi's smartphone sales in Africa outperform market, Xpeng Motors' Q2 revenue meets but losses exceed expectations, new energy vehicle...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/BABA US/NTES US/JD US/2618 HK/WMT US/BABAUS/AMZNUS/PDDUS/3690HK

​Taobao Deals app now accepts WeChat Pay, AI technology in development for <arena infinite breakout:="">, final pre-launch test for <where winds...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

Japan ETF flows have been light after the massive outflow from carry trade unwind. Qifu Tech, Q Tech and JDL all had positive earnings announcement...

David Mudd

Pre-IPO Annto Supply Chain Technology - About the Business, Forecast, and Thoughts on Valuation

Annto has deeply understood the pain points in manufacturing, but low profit margin makes Annto unable to withstand any negative fluctuation....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Xiaomi's smartphone sales in Africa outperform market, Xpeng Motors' Q2 revenue meets but losses exceed expectations, new energy vehicle...

Taobao Deals app now accepts WeChat Pay, AI technology in development for <arena infinite breakout:="">, final pre-launch test for <where winds...