IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a> announced a partial tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron Corp (6645 JP)</a>, the largest shareholder. Omron aims to make JMDC a consolidated subsidiary.  </li>
<li>The offer is for a minimum of 12.0m shares (18.52% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 15.0m shares (23.08%) at JPY5,700 per share, a 22.4% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Irrevocables (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/noritsu-koki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3091:1" rel="noopener">Noritsu Koki (7744 JP)</a>) represent a 13.63% ownership ratio. While the offer is light, it will likely succeed as the minimum acceptance condition requires a 7.1% minority acceptance rate. </li>
</ul>



JMDC (4483 JP) announced a partial tender offer for Omron Corp (6645 JP), the largest shareholder. Omron aims to make JMDC a consolidated subsidiary.  
The offer is for a minimum of 12.0m shares (18.52% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 15.0m shares (23.08%) at JPY5,700 per share, a 22.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
Irrevocables (Noritsu Koki (7744 JP)) represent a 13.63% ownership ratio. While the offer is light, it will likely succeed as the minimum acceptance condition requires a 7.1% minority acceptance rate. 


JMDC (4483 JP): Omron’s Partial Tender Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Haitong International Securities Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

<ul>
<li>Should the nominated directors, to be voted on by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">EOFlow (294090 KS)</a>'s shareholders at the November EGM, include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medtronic-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14982:1" rel="noopener">Medtronic Plc (MDT US)</a> executives, then game on.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> STILL has a Nikkei 225 problem, which means it probably has to underperform Nikkei 225 slightly between now and the Base Date (31 July 2024).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a> has been one of the more annoying partial tenders out there. Even post-facto, it is tough to know what the disposition was. This is extraordinarily vexing.</li>
</ul>


Should the nominated directors, to be voted on by EOFlow (294090 KS)'s shareholders at the November EGM, include Medtronic Plc (MDT US) executives, then game on.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) STILL has a Nikkei 225 problem, which means it probably has to underperform Nikkei 225 slightly between now and the Base Date (31 July 2024).

JMDC (4483 JP) has been one of the more annoying partial tenders out there. Even post-facto, it is tough to know what the disposition was. This is extraordinarily vexing.


Last Week In Event SPACE: EOFlow, Fast Retailing, JMDC, Origin Energy

<ul>
<li>I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:166:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-international-securities-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13153:1" rel="noopener">Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nws-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3350:1" rel="noopener">NWS (659 HK)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imax-china-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:888:1" rel="noopener">IMAX China (1970 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH)'s Offer for Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK).
Key updates took place for: Origin Energy (ORG AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), NWS (659 HK),IMAX China (1970 HK), and Eoflow (294090 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newcrest Mining, Haitong Int'l, Liontown, NWS, IMAX China

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex (8698 JP)</a> and Docomo announced an agreement. It is not clear ANY of this has to happen at prices favourable to minorities. But equally, it won't be egregiously bad.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/people-s-insurance-co-group-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:362:1" rel="noopener">People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK)</a>'s implied stub is at a lifetime low. The market is assigning HK$35.6bn less for its steady and profitable life/health insurance stub ops, year-to-date.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a> is a growth stock, growing organically. It is a rare enough thing. If you want to buy the back end, wait until it gets here.</li>
</ul>



Monex (8698 JP) and Docomo announced an agreement. It is not clear ANY of this has to happen at prices favourable to minorities. But equally, it won't be egregiously bad.

People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK)'s implied stub is at a lifetime low. The market is assigning HK$35.6bn less for its steady and profitable life/health insurance stub ops, year-to-date.

JMDC (4483 JP) is a growth stock, growing organically. It is a rare enough thing. If you want to buy the back end, wait until it gets here.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Monex/NTT, PICC/PICC P&C, Vertex

Japan

JMDC Inc. offers information services. The Company provides medical data statistics, life insurance data statistics, health data platform management, and other services. JMDC provides its services throughout Japan.

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JMDC (4483 JP)

JMDC (4483 JP): Omron’s Partial Tender Offer

While the offer is light, it will succeed as the minimum acceptance condition requires a low 7.1% minority acceptance rate. The tender offer runs...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

For the month of October, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: EOFlow, Fast Retailing, JMDC, Origin Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newcrest Mining, Haitong Int'l, Liontown, NWS, IMAX China

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Monex/NTT, PICC/PICC P&C, Vertex

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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