European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Sidara’s 35p offer provides a 40% premium with no dilution, offering certainty and urgently needed capital, making it the most favorable path for shareholders amid financial distress.</li>
<li>A standalone capital raise of £342m at 20p would dilute existing shareholders by over 71%, highlighting the severe downside if the Sidara deal collapses or fails regulatory approval.</li>
<li>Having rejected Apollo’s 240p offer in 2023, the Board is now recommending a 35p bid—an 85% discount—after destroying credibility, mismanaging cash, and losing shareholder trust.</li>
</ul>


Sidara’s 35p offer provides a 40% premium with no dilution, offering certainty and urgently needed capital, making it the most favorable path for shareholders amid financial distress.
A standalone capital raise of £342m at 20p would dilute existing shareholders by over 71%, highlighting the severe downside if the Sidara deal collapses or fails regulatory approval.
Having rejected Apollo’s 240p offer in 2023, the Board is now recommending a 35p bid—an 85% discount—after destroying credibility, mismanaging cash, and losing shareholder trust.


Running on Fumes: Wood Group’s Last Shot with Sidara

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The value realisation of selling cross-holdings should not be contingent on selling your shares to someone else too cheaply but that is exactly what Toyota is proposing here.</li>
<li>OCBC is doing the right thing. Although a 17.8% bump in terms for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a>'s minorities is probably not enough to dislodge Palliser.</li>
<li>Cosette has lodged a termination notice, which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> rejects. It's anyone's guess whether this saga concludes with a price cut; or Cosette walking.</li>
</ul>


The value realisation of selling cross-holdings should not be contingent on selling your shares to someone else too cheaply but that is exactly what Toyota is proposing here.
OCBC is doing the right thing. Although a 17.8% bump in terms for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)'s minorities is probably not enough to dislodge Palliser.
Cosette has lodged a termination notice, which Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) rejects. It's anyone's guess whether this saga concludes with a price cut; or Cosette walking.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Indust. Great Eastern, Mayne Pharma, Shibaura Elect., New World

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gamma-communications-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21942:1" rel="noopener">Gamma Communications (GAMA LN)</a> is the flagship addition forecast at the review at a market cap of ~$1.7bn following its listing transfer from AIM to Main Market on 2 May.</li>
<li>The ~$1.5bn tender offer of BBGI is expected to close prior to the review. Current F250 replacement candidates are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wickes-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41349:1" rel="noopener">Wickes Group (WIX LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pantheon-infrastructure-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35077:1" rel="noopener">Pantheon Infrastructure (PINT LN)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mobico-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22059:1" rel="noopener">Mobico Group (MCG LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bellevue-healthcare-trust-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44348:1" rel="noopener">Bellevue Healthcare Trust (BBH LN)</a> are the main deletion candidates set to migrate from F250 to SmallCap.</li>
</ul>



Gamma Communications (GAMA LN) is the flagship addition forecast at the review at a market cap of ~$1.7bn following its listing transfer from AIM to Main Market on 2 May.
The ~$1.5bn tender offer of BBGI is expected to close prior to the review. Current F250 replacement candidates are Wickes Group (WIX LN) and Pantheon Infrastructure (PINT LN).

Mobico Group (MCG LN) and Bellevue Healthcare Trust (BBH LN) are the main deletion candidates set to migrate from F250 to SmallCap.


UK Index June 2025 Annual Review: GAMA Headlines F250, F100 Stays Quiet, All-Share Reshuffles

<ul>
<li>
Toyota Chair TOYODA made a proposal to take over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>, not because he loves forklifts etc; but an opportunistic way to buy a large block of Toyota.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal to review its dual-company structure. That was the right outcome.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hainan-meilan-international-airport-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12545:1" rel="noopener">Hainan Meilan (357 HK)</a>'s H-share Offer price of HK$10.62/share is not compelling; but it's not meant to be, as the SPA Buyer and Seller are ultimately controlled by Hainan SASAC.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Chair TOYODA made a proposal to take over Toyota Industries (6201 JP), not because he loves forklifts etc; but an opportunistic way to buy a large block of Toyota.

Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal to review its dual-company structure. That was the right outcome.

Hainan Meilan (357 HK)'s H-share Offer price of HK$10.62/share is not compelling; but it's not meant to be, as the SPA Buyer and Seller are ultimately controlled by Hainan SASAC.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Rio Tinto, Hainan Meilan, Fujitsu General

<ul>
<li>Value Act, as activist, believes the KKR's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topcon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:738:1" rel="noopener">Topcon Corp (7732 JP)</a> is not being done at the right price. But Value Act will now tender shares and invest in Bidco. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iluka-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10105:1" rel="noopener">Iluka Resources (ILU AU)</a> are the only Australian companies with confirmed (or near-term) refining specific heavy rare earth elements as China restricts exports.</li>
<li>StraCap has been tilting at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wakita-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11924:1" rel="noopener">Wakita (8125 JP)</a> for years. It hasn't made headway. The only way StraCap will get its measures over the line is by soliciting retail.</li>
</ul>


Value Act, as activist, believes the KKR's Topcon Corp (7732 JP) is not being done at the right price. But Value Act will now tender shares and invest in Bidco. 

Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)and Iluka Resources (ILU AU) are the only Australian companies with confirmed (or near-term) refining specific heavy rare earth elements as China restricts exports.
StraCap has been tilting at the Wakita (8125 JP) for years. It hasn't made headway. The only way StraCap will get its measures over the line is by soliciting retail.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Topcon, Heavy Rare Earth Elements, Wakita, Swire/Cathay, Horizon Robotics

United Kingdom

John Wood Group PLC is an international energy service company that provides products and services to the oil and gas and power industries.  The Company designs and manufactures submersible pumping systems, well-head systems, and pressure controls.  John Wood also provides aftermarket services for heavy industrial turbines and aero gas turbines.

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John Wood (WG/ LN)

Running on Fumes: Wood Group’s Last Shot with Sidara

Sidara's 35p offer offers a 40% premium with no dilution, providing certainty amid financial distress. There's severe downside in case of a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Indust. Great Eastern, Mayne Pharma, Shibaura Elect., New World

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Rio Tinto, Hainan Meilan, Fujitsu General

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Topcon, Heavy Rare Earth Elements, Wakita, Swire/Cathay, Horizon Robotics

It’s Sunday (and Easter)! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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Running on Fumes: Wood Group’s Last Shot with Sidara

​Sidara's 35p offer offers a 40% premium with no dilution, providing certainty amid financial distress. There's severe downside in case of a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Indust. Great Eastern, Mayne Pharma, Shibaura Elect., New World

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

UK Index June 2025 Annual Review: GAMA Headlines F250, F100 Stays Quiet, All-Share Reshuffles

GAMA to join F250 at the review following its listing transfer. WIX to join F250 before the review as a replacement to the BBGI tender offer. AEP...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Rio Tinto, Hainan Meilan, Fujitsu General

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Topcon, Heavy Rare Earth Elements, Wakita, Swire/Cathay, Horizon Robotics

It’s Sunday (and Easter)! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Sidara's 35p offer offers a 40% premium with no dilution, providing certainty amid financial distress. There's severe downside in case of a...