European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Two gates cleared: Borrowing-limit and FY24 audit milestones complete; Sidara’s 30 p bid now hinges solely on A&amp;E execution by 31 Dec 2025.</li>
<li>Market discount persists: At 22 p, shares imply 30–35 % failure probability; downside largely priced, upside to 30 p offers 36 % absolute return.</li>
<li>Event-Driven focus: Binary risk now procedural, not strategic—spread likely to tighten toward high-20s once A&amp;E documentation confirmed.</li>
</ul>


Two gates cleared: Borrowing-limit and FY24 audit milestones complete; Sidara’s 30 p bid now hinges solely on A&amp;E execution by 31 Dec 2025.
Market discount persists: At 22 p, shares imply 30–35 % failure probability; downside largely priced, upside to 30 p offers 36 % absolute return.
Event-Driven focus: Binary risk now procedural, not strategic—spread likely to tighten toward high-20s once A&amp;E documentation confirmed.


Sidara / Wood Group – Audit Cleared, One Gate to Close

<ul>
<li>Sidara’s 30p firm offer remains live but hinges on three gates — the 23 Oct GM, a clean FY24 audit, and A&amp;E execution — all non-waivable and binary.</li>
<li>Borrowing-Limit approval has become a pre-audit chokepoint; failure would block the “going-concern” opinion and terminate the scheme before the formal Exceptional Conditions are tested.</li>
<li>Suspension limits trading but not lending: existing borrows persist in CREST, with recall and fee spikes expected around October–December catalysts as counterparties rebalance exposure.</li>
</ul>


Sidara’s 30p firm offer remains live but hinges on three gates — the 23 Oct GM, a clean FY24 audit, and A&amp;E execution — all non-waivable and binary.
Borrowing-Limit approval has become a pre-audit chokepoint; failure would block the “going-concern” opinion and terminate the scheme before the formal Exceptional Conditions are tested.
Suspension limits trading but not lending: existing borrows persist in CREST, with recall and fee spikes expected around October–December catalysts as counterparties rebalance exposure.


Sidara - Wood Group – Audit, Amend, and Exit

<ul>
<li>Sidara’s 30p/share offer, backed by $450m funding and debt extension, is the only viable path; yet “Exceptional Conditions” make this deal unusually binary despite board support.</li>
<li>The audit (clean FY24 balance sheet opinion by 31 Oct 2025) and A&amp;E by 31 Dec 2025 are non-waivable gates; clearing both crystallizes 30p, missing either drives automatic lapse.</li>
<li>Probability-Weighted target price stands at 24.9p; distressed entries retain compelling upside, but pre-existing holders rely heavily on successful completion. Break risk implies severe equity impairment if conditions fail.</li>
</ul>


Sidara’s 30p/share offer, backed by $450m funding and debt extension, is the only viable path; yet “Exceptional Conditions” make this deal unusually binary despite board support.
The audit (clean FY24 balance sheet opinion by 31 Oct 2025) and A&amp;E by 31 Dec 2025 are non-waivable gates; clearing both crystallizes 30p, missing either drives automatic lapse.
Probability-Weighted target price stands at 24.9p; distressed entries retain compelling upside, but pre-existing holders rely heavily on successful completion. Break risk implies severe equity impairment if conditions fail.


Carved in Wood: Sidara’s Firm Offer, but Fragile Conditions

<ul>
<li>Sidara’s persistence through multiple PUSU extensions and deep due diligence implies strong strategic interest despite Wood’s governance turbulence and suspended trading.</li>
<li>Wood’s record $2B+ contract wins in Asia Pacific show the business remains commercially viable and strategically relevant in the energy infrastructure value chain.</li>
<li>Free cash flow expected to turn meaningfully positive in 2026, supporting a standalone recovery case if no deal emerges—valuation suggests &gt;2x upside potential.</li>
</ul>


Sidara’s persistence through multiple PUSU extensions and deep due diligence implies strong strategic interest despite Wood’s governance turbulence and suspended trading.
Wood’s record $2B+ contract wins in Asia Pacific show the business remains commercially viable and strategically relevant in the energy infrastructure value chain.
Free cash flow expected to turn meaningfully positive in 2026, supporting a standalone recovery case if no deal emerges—valuation suggests &gt;2x upside potential.


Sidara/Wood: Energy Engineering in Limbo, Value Beckons Amid Governance Fog

<ul>
<li>Sidara’s proposal, Board support, and advanced due diligence underpin a credible path to deal completion, despite market volatility and suspension risks temporarily depressing Wood Group’s trading price.</li>
<li>Investors entering at distressed levels around 17.89p enjoy a highly favorable risk-reward skew, with potential upside of 95% against manageable downside risks if the transaction ultimately collapses.</li>
<li>Existing holders at 26.1p face a more binary outcome, but strategic intent, historical precedents, and Sidara’s prior investment case suggest maintaining exposure through the critical May 15 decision point.</li>
</ul>


Sidara’s proposal, Board support, and advanced due diligence underpin a credible path to deal completion, despite market volatility and suspension risks temporarily depressing Wood Group’s trading price.
Investors entering at distressed levels around 17.89p enjoy a highly favorable risk-reward skew, with potential upside of 95% against manageable downside risks if the transaction ultimately collapses.
Existing holders at 26.1p face a more binary outcome, but strategic intent, historical precedents, and Sidara’s prior investment case suggest maintaining exposure through the critical May 15 decision point.


Crude Realities: Risk and Reward in the Wood Group Offer

United Kingdom

John Wood Group PLC is an international energy service company that provides products and services to the oil and gas and power industries.  The Company designs and manufactures submersible pumping systems, well-head systems, and pressure controls.  John Wood also provides aftermarket services for heavy industrial turbines and aero gas turbines.

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John Wood (WG/ LN)

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Carved in Wood: Sidara’s Firm Offer, but Fragile Conditions

Sidara’s 30p offer is the only credible exit for Wood, but non-waivable audit and refinancing gates make the arb binary—clear both for 30p, miss...

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Sidara’s pursuit of Wood signals strategic intent despite audit woes. Ongoing cash generation, contract momentum, and deep value upside keep the...

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Sidara’s bid offers Wood Group a potential rescue, but risks tied to suspension, governance, and deal execution create a volatile, high-stakes...

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