US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-witan-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44039:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Witan (ALW LN)</a> is the main candidate for addition in Top 100 (footsie 100) replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vistry-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21858:1" rel="noopener">Vistry Group (VTY LN)</a> whose price recently plummeted more than 50%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-james-s-place-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22168:1" rel="noopener">St James's Place (STJ LN)</a> is the next candidate for addition in Top 100 replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22158:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Group (FRAS LN)</a> with both stocks being extremely close to the entry-exit rank.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-bank-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25601:1" rel="noopener">Metro Bank (MTRO LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/diversified-energy-co-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41329:1" rel="noopener">Diversified Energy (DEC LN)</a> are the top two addition candidates for Next 250 (footsie 250), replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pz-cussons-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22102:1" rel="noopener">PZ Cussons (PZC LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/close-brothers-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21866:1" rel="noopener">Close Brothers (CBG LN)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Alliance Witan (ALW LN) is the main candidate for addition in Top 100 (footsie 100) replacing Vistry Group (VTY LN) whose price recently plummeted more than 50%.

St James's Place (STJ LN) is the next candidate for addition in Top 100 replacing Frasers Group (FRAS LN) with both stocks being extremely close to the entry-exit rank.

Metro Bank (MTRO LN) and Diversified Energy (DEC LN) are the top two addition candidates for Next 250 (footsie 250), replacing PZ Cussons (PZC LN) and Close Brothers (CBG LN).


FOOTSIE UK December 2024 Forecasts: ALW and STJ for Top 100; MTRO and DEC for Next 250

Research from Superfluous Value, Superfluous Value

Superfluous Value

Research from Superfluous Value

Stock selection has rarely been as important as it is today. After a roaring decade for US markets and with signs of mania everywhere, the S&P 500 as over-priced as it has ever been.

But, there is better way. Superfluous Value is a contrarian, deep-dive into the markets forgotten by the 60/40 instos and indexing, momentum chasers. Where the hot money has long moved on, it leaves behind investments offering great safety and prospective returns.

I believe the 2020s will look diametrically opposite to the recent past, with Emerging Markets, the UK, Japan and commodities set to rip and I intend to be holding the best opportunities available as they do.

Please feel free to come along on the journey.

Contrarian Deep-Dive into the Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The UK remains one of my favourite hunting grounds and I’ve written about its challenges ad nauseam over the last few years.</li><li>But today, it’s particularly worth pointing out that an unusually large number of UK stocks are down significantly over the last month.</li><li>Many are for business specific reasons, but it’s almost uncanny the way UK stocks find a way to tank, even when much of the world is rallying.</li></ul>

The UK remains one of my favourite hunting grounds and I’ve written about its challenges ad nauseam over the last few years.But today, it’s particularly worth pointing out that an unusually large number of UK stocks are down significantly over the last month.Many are for business specific reasons, but it’s almost uncanny the way UK stocks find a way to tank, even when much of the world is rallying.

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Wood Group’s challenging year has been marked by strategic restructuring, financial setbacks, and a pivot toward sustainable energy, alongside a volatile market response to high exceptional charges and governance issues.</li>
<li>The company’s share price dropped 60% on November 7 following the Deloitte review announcement, amplifying investor concerns over further potential cash flow impacts and operational instability.</li>
<li>Despite challenges, Wood Group remains a potential acquisition target, with shares trading at 3.6x EV/25e EBITDA, suggesting value for prospective buyers amid recent strategic shifts.</li>
</ul>


Wood Group’s challenging year has been marked by strategic restructuring, financial setbacks, and a pivot toward sustainable energy, alongside a volatile market response to high exceptional charges and governance issues.
The company’s share price dropped 60% on November 7 following the Deloitte review announcement, amplifying investor concerns over further potential cash flow impacts and operational instability.
Despite challenges, Wood Group remains a potential acquisition target, with shares trading at 3.6x EV/25e EBITDA, suggesting value for prospective buyers amid recent strategic shifts.


Is Wood Group Primed for an Opportunistic Acquisition?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>A new tool highlights which TSE companies have disclosed a policy/consideration; sometimes referred to as the "name and shame" list. In practice, more "name" than "shame". </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> is trading rich to its NAV. And the simple ratio (JCNC/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>) is the highest level outside the 2008 GFC. </li>
<li>This is a rubbish Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>. Given how shareholders voted at last year's AGM, expect this Scheme to be voted down. Avoid.</li>
</ul>


A new tool highlights which TSE companies have disclosed a policy/consideration; sometimes referred to as the "name and shame" list. In practice, more "name" than "shame". 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) is trading rich to its NAV. And the simple ratio (JCNC/Astra International (ASII IJ)) is the highest level outside the 2008 GFC. 
This is a rubbish Offer for Asia Cement China (743 HK). Given how shareholders voted at last year's AGM, expect this Scheme to be voted down. Avoid.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardine Cycle & Carriage, "Name & Shame", Asia Cement, Northern Minerals

<ul>
<li>Sidara has submitted a fourth and final 230p/share cash proposal. Wood's Board has changed tack and will grant due diligence. PUSU has been extended to 3 July.</li>
<li>This proposal represents 39.4% premium, implied equity value of £1,591 million ($2,033 million) and implied EV of £2,983 million ($3,122 million), and (still good value) 6.4x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA.</li>
<li>The market is cautious (gross spread 12.5%). There's potential for a "best &amp; final" firm offer. However, if Sidara withdraws a significant sell-off in Wood's shares is expected.</li>
</ul>


Sidara has submitted a fourth and final 230p/share cash proposal. Wood's Board has changed tack and will grant due diligence. PUSU has been extended to 3 July.
This proposal represents 39.4% premium, implied equity value of £1,591 million ($2,033 million) and implied EV of £2,983 million ($3,122 million), and (still good value) 6.4x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA.
The market is cautious (gross spread 12.5%). There's potential for a "best &amp; final" firm offer. However, if Sidara withdraws a significant sell-off in Wood's shares is expected.


United Kingdom

John Wood Group PLC is an international energy service company that provides products and services to the oil and gas and power industries.  The Company designs and manufactures submersible pumping systems, well-head systems, and pressure controls.  John Wood also provides aftermarket services for heavy industrial turbines and aero gas turbines.

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John Wood (WG/ LN)

FOOTSIE UK December 2024 Forecasts: ALW and STJ for Top 100; MTRO and DEC for Next 250

Alliance Witan (ALW) and St James's Place (STJ) are the current forecasted additions to the UK's Top 100 index (footsie 100) replacing Vistry...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Noteworthy UK Carnage

The UK remains one of my favourite hunting grounds and I’ve written about its challenges ad nauseam over the last few years.

Superfluous Value

Is Wood Group Primed for an Opportunistic Acquisition?

The shares appear valuable, surely with buyers closely evaluating. They likely have leverage to bid lower than in 2023-24, unless competitive...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardine Cycle & Carriage, "Name & Shame", Asia Cement, Northern Minerals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Sidara/John Wood: 4th Proposal at 230p

Sidara's final cash proposal for Wood at 230p/share represents a 39.4% premium, with potential for a firm offer but caution in the market due to a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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52-week Range

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Dividend (Yield)

FOOTSIE UK December 2024 Forecasts: ALW and STJ for Top 100; MTRO and DEC for Next 250

​Alliance Witan (ALW) and St James's Place (STJ) are the current forecasted additions to the UK's Top 100 index (footsie 100) replacing Vistry...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Noteworthy UK Carnage

The UK remains one of my favourite hunting grounds and I’ve written about its challenges ad nauseam over the last few years.

Superfluous Value

Is Wood Group Primed for an Opportunistic Acquisition?

The shares appear valuable, surely with buyers closely evaluating. They likely have leverage to bid lower than in 2023-24, unless competitive...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardine Cycle & Carriage, "Name & Shame", Asia Cement, Northern Minerals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Sidara/John Wood: 4th Proposal at 230p

​Sidara's final cash proposal for Wood at 230p/share represents a 39.4% premium, with potential for a firm offer but caution in the market due to a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Alliance Witan (ALW) and St James's Place (STJ) are the current forecasted additions to the UK's Top 100 index (footsie 100) replacing Vistry...

Sidara's final cash proposal for Wood at 230p/share represents a 39.4% premium, with potential for a firm offer but caution in the market due to a...