Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Toyota Chair TOYODA made a proposal to take over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>, not because he loves forklifts etc; but an opportunistic way to buy a large block of Toyota.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal to review its dual-company structure. That was the right outcome.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hainan-meilan-international-airport-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12545:1" rel="noopener">Hainan Meilan (357 HK)</a>'s H-share Offer price of HK$10.62/share is not compelling; but it's not meant to be, as the SPA Buyer and Seller are ultimately controlled by Hainan SASAC.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Chair TOYODA made a proposal to take over Toyota Industries (6201 JP), not because he loves forklifts etc; but an opportunistic way to buy a large block of Toyota.

Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal to review its dual-company structure. That was the right outcome.

Hainan Meilan (357 HK)'s H-share Offer price of HK$10.62/share is not compelling; but it's not meant to be, as the SPA Buyer and Seller are ultimately controlled by Hainan SASAC.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Rio Tinto, Hainan Meilan, Fujitsu General

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Sidara’s proposal, Board support, and advanced due diligence underpin a credible path to deal completion, despite market volatility and suspension risks temporarily depressing Wood Group’s trading price.</li>
<li>Investors entering at distressed levels around 17.89p enjoy a highly favorable risk-reward skew, with potential upside of 95% against manageable downside risks if the transaction ultimately collapses.</li>
<li>Existing holders at 26.1p face a more binary outcome, but strategic intent, historical precedents, and Sidara’s prior investment case suggest maintaining exposure through the critical May 15 decision point.</li>
</ul>


Sidara’s proposal, Board support, and advanced due diligence underpin a credible path to deal completion, despite market volatility and suspension risks temporarily depressing Wood Group’s trading price.
Investors entering at distressed levels around 17.89p enjoy a highly favorable risk-reward skew, with potential upside of 95% against manageable downside risks if the transaction ultimately collapses.
Existing holders at 26.1p face a more binary outcome, but strategic intent, historical precedents, and Sidara’s prior investment case suggest maintaining exposure through the critical May 15 decision point.


Crude Realities: Risk and Reward in the Wood Group Offer

<ul>
<li>Value Act, as activist, believes the KKR's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topcon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:738:1" rel="noopener">Topcon Corp (7732 JP)</a> is not being done at the right price. But Value Act will now tender shares and invest in Bidco. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iluka-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10105:1" rel="noopener">Iluka Resources (ILU AU)</a> are the only Australian companies with confirmed (or near-term) refining specific heavy rare earth elements as China restricts exports.</li>
<li>StraCap has been tilting at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wakita-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11924:1" rel="noopener">Wakita (8125 JP)</a> for years. It hasn't made headway. The only way StraCap will get its measures over the line is by soliciting retail.</li>
</ul>


Value Act, as activist, believes the KKR's Topcon Corp (7732 JP) is not being done at the right price. But Value Act will now tender shares and invest in Bidco. 

Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)and Iluka Resources (ILU AU) are the only Australian companies with confirmed (or near-term) refining specific heavy rare earth elements as China restricts exports.
StraCap has been tilting at the Wakita (8125 JP) for years. It hasn't made headway. The only way StraCap will get its measures over the line is by soliciting retail.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Topcon, Heavy Rare Earth Elements, Wakita, Swire/Cathay, Horizon Robotics

<ul>
<li>Sidara’s 35p offer provides a 40% premium with no dilution, offering certainty and urgently needed capital, making it the most favorable path for shareholders amid financial distress.</li>
<li>A standalone capital raise of £342m at 20p would dilute existing shareholders by over 71%, highlighting the severe downside if the Sidara deal collapses or fails regulatory approval.</li>
<li>Having rejected Apollo’s 240p offer in 2023, the Board is now recommending a 35p bid—an 85% discount—after destroying credibility, mismanaging cash, and losing shareholder trust.</li>
</ul>


Sidara’s 35p offer provides a 40% premium with no dilution, offering certainty and urgently needed capital, making it the most favorable path for shareholders amid financial distress.
A standalone capital raise of £342m at 20p would dilute existing shareholders by over 71%, highlighting the severe downside if the Sidara deal collapses or fails regulatory approval.
Having rejected Apollo’s 240p offer in 2023, the Board is now recommending a 35p bid—an 85% discount—after destroying credibility, mismanaging cash, and losing shareholder trust.


Running on Fumes: Wood Group’s Last Shot with Sidara

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Index Rebalance

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>The final rankings will be decided based on the full market cap at the close of trading today (3rd March 2025).</li>
<li>Based on the current numbers, we see one change for the F100 index and three changes for the F250 index in March 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
The final rankings will be decided based on the full market cap at the close of trading today (3rd March 2025).
Based on the current numbers, we see one change for the F100 index and three changes for the F250 index in March 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar25: Base Date for Ranks; Hargreaves Lansdown M&A Change Soon!

United Kingdom

Wood is a British multinational engineering and consulting company that provides project management and technical services for energy and industrial markets. The company offers solutions in areas such as decarbonization, digitalization, asset optimization, and clean energy. Wood is headquartered in Aberdeen, Scotland, and was founded in 1961.

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Wood (WG/ LN)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Rio Tinto, Hainan Meilan, Fujitsu General

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Crude Realities: Risk and Reward in the Wood Group Offer

Sidara’s bid offers Wood Group a potential rescue, but risks tied to suspension, governance, and deal execution create a volatile, high-stakes...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Topcon, Heavy Rare Earth Elements, Wakita, Swire/Cathay, Horizon Robotics

It’s Sunday (and Easter)! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Running on Fumes: Wood Group’s Last Shot with Sidara

Sidara's 35p offer offers a 40% premium with no dilution, providing certainty amid financial distress. There's severe downside in case of a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar25: Base Date for Ranks; Hargreaves Lansdown M&A Change Soon!

Today is the base date for rankings. The index changes will be confirmed after market close tomorrow. There could be multiple regular ADDs/DELs and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Rio Tinto, Hainan Meilan, Fujitsu General

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Crude Realities: Risk and Reward in the Wood Group Offer

Sidara’s bid offers Wood Group a potential rescue, but risks tied to suspension, governance, and deal execution create a volatile, high-stakes...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Topcon, Heavy Rare Earth Elements, Wakita, Swire/Cathay, Horizon Robotics

It’s Sunday (and Easter)! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Running on Fumes: Wood Group’s Last Shot with Sidara

​Sidara's 35p offer offers a 40% premium with no dilution, providing certainty amid financial distress. There's severe downside in case of a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar25: Base Date for Ranks; Hargreaves Lansdown M&A Change Soon!

Today is the base date for rankings. The index changes will be confirmed after market close tomorrow. There could be multiple regular ADDs/DELs and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Sidara's 35p offer offers a 40% premium with no dilution, providing certainty amid financial distress. There's severe downside in case of a...