Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New H8 release from Fed shows another strong week of YoY loan growth at 4.22%</li>
<li>The delta in C&amp;I loans which are core to economy is exceptional, now at 3.68% YoY</li>
<li>With loan loss reserves only growing at 1.15% YoY, credit metrics appear benign</li>
</ul>


New H8 release from Fed shows another strong week of YoY loan growth at 4.22%
The delta in C&amp;I loans which are core to economy is exceptional, now at 3.68% YoY
With loan loss reserves only growing at 1.15% YoY, credit metrics appear benign


US Banks - Another Week of >4% YoY Loan Growth, Credit Metrics Look Good: Meager LLR Growth

<ul>
<li>Weekly loan data is up a lot in week ending 2 July suggesting the geopolitical events are not negating credit demand in the US - demand is accelerating.</li>
<li>Over the past three weeks loans are up USD119bn and there is no other 3 week period that compares in recent months. </li>
<li>Total loan growth is now 4.2% YoY where C&amp;I loan growth accelerated from 2.3% YoY to 3.2% YoY, in the most recent week.</li>
</ul>


Weekly loan data is up a lot in week ending 2 July suggesting the geopolitical events are not negating credit demand in the US - demand is accelerating.
Over the past three weeks loans are up USD119bn and there is no other 3 week period that compares in recent months. 
Total loan growth is now 4.2% YoY where C&amp;I loan growth accelerated from 2.3% YoY to 3.2% YoY, in the most recent week.


US Banks - New Loans Up USD119bn in past 3 Weeks. There Is No Recent Comparative This High.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.
Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances


Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

<ul>
<li>New weekly data from US banks are now out, the first time since 13 June events, so important</li>
<li>There remains loan acceleration in total loans and also the important bucket, C&amp;I loans</li>
<li>LDR expansion good, new CP outstanding data shows a surge in growth rate, new highs</li>
</ul>


New weekly data from US banks are now out, the first time since 13 June events, so important
There remains loan acceleration in total loans and also the important bucket, C&amp;I loans
LDR expansion good, new CP outstanding data shows a surge in growth rate, new highs


US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets Post 13 June Are Out, Strong C&I, Low LLR, LDR Up, CP Growth High

<ul>
<li>Quarterly granular data from US banks is collated by the Fed showing consumer loans broken down by PD bucket</li>
<li>The data through 1Q25 may be counterintuitive with what shows some of the best credit metrics in the time series </li>
<li>The best two PD buckets for both residential mortgage loans and credit card loans, are both rising as a proportion of total, and at peaks in the series</li>
</ul>


Quarterly granular data from US banks is collated by the Fed showing consumer loans broken down by PD bucket
The data through 1Q25 may be counterintuitive with what shows some of the best credit metrics in the time series 
The best two PD buckets for both residential mortgage loans and credit card loans, are both rising as a proportion of total, and at peaks in the series


US Banks - Granular Data on Probability of Default (PD) Points to Strong Consumer Credit Metrics

United States

JPMorgan Chase & Co. provides global financial services and retail banking. The Company provides services such as investment banking, treasury and securities services, asset management, private banking, card member services, commercial banking, and home finance. JP Morgan Chase serves business enterprises, institutions, and individuals.

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JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM US)

US Banks - Another Week of >4% YoY Loan Growth, Credit Metrics Look Good: Meager LLR Growth

US banks show another week of >4% YoY loan growth, two consecutive weeks, only time we have seen at least since first week of FY24. C&I loan delta...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - New Loans Up USD119bn in past 3 Weeks. There Is No Recent Comparative This High.

Weekly B/S data for US banks shows far higher loan growth in the week, much is driven by core C&I loans. LLR balances are lower, growth rate moved...

Daniel Tabbush

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; $QQQ and $SPX Breaking to All-Time Highs; Russell 2000 $IWM and Mid Caps $IJH also breaking above...

Vermilion Research

US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets Post 13 June Are Out, Strong C&I, Low LLR, LDR Up, CP Growth High

US bank balances sheets weekly data is just out and this is first H8 data since 13 June events. C&I is strong, LLR is low, LDR rising, and CP...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Granular Data on Probability of Default (PD) Points to Strong Consumer Credit Metrics

Granular data on probability of default for US banks in their mortgage lending and credit card lending, is highly positive, suggesting good credit...

Daniel Tabbush

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