Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We have new weekly data of US banks from Fed H8 data series, which is a strong showing</li>
<li>Growth rates keep rising, now up for 7 weeks consecutively, for loans YoY % ch</li>
<li>US banks added USD76.8bn during first 7 weeks of 3Q25 and including the last week of 2Q25. Same figures last year was down USD1.4bn</li>
</ul>


We have new weekly data of US banks from Fed H8 data series, which is a strong showing
Growth rates keep rising, now up for 7 weeks consecutively, for loans YoY % ch
US banks added USD76.8bn during first 7 weeks of 3Q25 and including the last week of 2Q25. Same figures last year was down USD1.4bn


US Banks - Accelerating Weekly YoY Loan Growth at +$77bn into 3Q25 Vs Minus $1bn into 3Q24

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite a 307% surge in revenue, CoreWeave's extended six-year GPU depreciation schedule flatters its profitability while masking faster asset wear-down.</li>
<li>Despite ballooning into a $30 bn market cap, CoreWeave is weighed down by debt and lease obligations; Q2 interest expense exceeded operating profit, with CRWV netting $290 m in losses. </li>
<li>The Aug 15 IPO lock-up expiry triggered insider selling via $1 bn+ block trades, driving a 35% stock plunge and spiking short interest.</li>
</ul>


Despite a 307% surge in revenue, CoreWeave's extended six-year GPU depreciation schedule flatters its profitability while masking faster asset wear-down.
Despite ballooning into a $30 bn market cap, CoreWeave is weighed down by debt and lease obligations; Q2 interest expense exceeded operating profit, with CRWV netting $290 m in losses. 
The Aug 15 IPO lock-up expiry triggered insider selling via $1 bn+ block trades, driving a 35% stock plunge and spiking short interest.


CoreWeave’s Growth Meets Debt-Heavy Risk

<ul>
<li>US banks' high-frequency data (HFD) released from the Fed shows the 6th week in a row of higher than 4% YoY loan growth (and highest yet at 4.43%)</li>
<li>The change in loans during the first 6 weeks of 3Q25 is +USD85bn compared with +USD1bn in the same period last year</li>
<li>C&amp;I loan growth has seen strong delta over past 52 weeks and LLR growth remains subdued, suggesting good credit metrics</li>
</ul>


US banks' high-frequency data (HFD) released from the Fed shows the 6th week in a row of higher than 4% YoY loan growth (and highest yet at 4.43%)
The change in loans during the first 6 weeks of 3Q25 is +USD85bn compared with +USD1bn in the same period last year
C&amp;I loan growth has seen strong delta over past 52 weeks and LLR growth remains subdued, suggesting good credit metrics


US Banks - At 6 Weeks into 3Q25, +USD85bn Loans, Vs +USD1bn at 6 Weeks into 2Q24

<ul>
<li>US banks have saw loans rise from USD2 tr to USD13 tr from 1990 to newest release; it is 1st time we have seen USD13,005bn in loans</li>
<li>US banks are still seeing growth rates YoY at over 4%, with this pace of growth now seen for the past 5 weeks of data</li>
<li>Even where the Senior Loan Officer Survey is mixed (not in this report), US banks are seeing good lending growth, and benign provisions</li>
</ul>


US banks have saw loans rise from USD2 tr to USD13 tr from 1990 to newest release; it is 1st time we have seen USD13,005bn in loans
US banks are still seeing growth rates YoY at over 4%, with this pace of growth now seen for the past 5 weeks of data
Even where the Senior Loan Officer Survey is mixed (not in this report), US banks are seeing good lending growth, and benign provisions


US Banks - USD13 Trillion in Loans, First Time Ever, as at Week 30 July

<ul>
<li>High frequency data on LLR for US banks suggests very good credit metrics</li>
<li>There is no decline of LLR on banks' balance sheet and LLR YoY growth is benign</li>
<li>At the same time, assets less liabilities remains at 18.6% of total loans, a good buffer</li>
</ul>


High frequency data on LLR for US banks suggests very good credit metrics
There is no decline of LLR on banks' balance sheet and LLR YoY growth is benign
At the same time, assets less liabilities remains at 18.6% of total loans, a good buffer


US Banks - Weekly LLR Data Suggests Strong Credit Metrics, 3rd Week in Row of over +4% Loans

United States

JPMorgan Chase & Co. provides global financial services and retail banking. The Company provides services such as investment banking, treasury and securities services, asset management, private banking, card member services, commercial banking, and home finance. JP Morgan Chase serves business enterprises, institutions, and individuals.

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JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM US)

US Banks - Accelerating Weekly YoY Loan Growth at +$77bn into 3Q25 Vs Minus $1bn into 3Q24

Fed released its weekly update of US bank balance sheets, with accelerating loan growth. Credit costs appear to be still benign, from low LLR growth.

Daniel Tabbush

CoreWeave’s Growth Meets Debt-Heavy Risk

CoreWeave's revenue surge masks faster asset wear-down; debt and lease obligations weigh down $30 bn market cap; insider selling triggers 35%...

Mint Finance

US Banks - At 6 Weeks into 3Q25, +USD85bn Loans, Vs +USD1bn at 6 Weeks into 2Q24

US banks' HFD shows strong and accelerating loan growth. The change in loans during the 6 weeks into 3Q25 is $85bn vs $1bn in 3Q24. C&I is strong,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - USD13 Trillion in Loans, First Time Ever, as at Week 30 July

US banks have seen loans outstanding rise above USD13 trillion for the first time ever. The growth rate remains above 4% YoY for five weeks...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly LLR Data Suggests Strong Credit Metrics, 3rd Week in Row of over +4% Loans

US banks weekly data shows LLR remains strong at over USD200bn with still benign YoY % growth, suggesting very good credit metrics. We now have 3rd...

Daniel Tabbush

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Banks - Accelerating Weekly YoY Loan Growth at +$77bn into 3Q25 Vs Minus $1bn into 3Q24

Fed released its weekly update of US bank balance sheets, with accelerating loan growth. Credit costs appear to be still benign, from low LLR growth.

Daniel Tabbush

CoreWeave’s Growth Meets Debt-Heavy Risk

​CoreWeave's revenue surge masks faster asset wear-down; debt and lease obligations weigh down $30 bn market cap; insider selling triggers 35%...

Mint Finance

US Banks - At 6 Weeks into 3Q25, +USD85bn Loans, Vs +USD1bn at 6 Weeks into 2Q24

US banks' HFD shows strong and accelerating loan growth. The change in loans during the 6 weeks into 3Q25 is $85bn vs $1bn in 3Q24. C&I is strong,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - USD13 Trillion in Loans, First Time Ever, as at Week 30 July

US banks have seen loans outstanding rise above USD13 trillion for the first time ever. The growth rate remains above 4% YoY for five weeks...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly LLR Data Suggests Strong Credit Metrics, 3rd Week in Row of over +4% Loans

US banks weekly data shows LLR remains strong at over USD200bn with still benign YoY % growth, suggesting very good credit metrics. We now have 3rd...

Daniel Tabbush

CoreWeave's revenue surge masks faster asset wear-down; debt and lease obligations weigh down $30 bn market cap; insider selling triggers 35%...