Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ex-date for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)</a>'s spinoff from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.</li>
<li>There will be no selling from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX Index</a> and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)</a> has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.</li>
</ul>


The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)'s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.

Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.


Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Overnight CP market in the US reflects the Fed rate cut immediately. Rates on overnight non-financial CP for A2/P2 companies now 4.20% (18 Sept) from 4.45% (17 Sept)</li>
<li>Weekly B/S for US banks has been showing for some time accelerating loan volume, with debt 5-7% less expensive overnight, loan volume should continue to accelerate</li>
<li>Where loans at US banks are only 67% of deposits, a 25bps reduction on both pools (loans, deposits) can be NIM expansionary. There are many moving parts, though. </li>
</ul>


Overnight CP market in the US reflects the Fed rate cut immediately. Rates on overnight non-financial CP for A2/P2 companies now 4.20% (18 Sept) from 4.45% (17 Sept)
Weekly B/S for US banks has been showing for some time accelerating loan volume, with debt 5-7% less expensive overnight, loan volume should continue to accelerate
Where loans at US banks are only 67% of deposits, a 25bps reduction on both pools (loans, deposits) can be NIM expansionary. There are many moving parts, though. 


US Banks - Lower Rates: Higher Loan Volume, Low LDR Can Mean +NIM

<ul>
<li>Weekly balance sheets at US banks show a strong economy, and likely far better 3Q25 results for banks</li>
<li>Credit growth continues to accelerate, now at 4.67% YoY, weekly CP data is very strong, at +26% YoY</li>
<li>Credit metrics appear very strong, with LLR growing at almost nothing, at 1.36% YoY and less than 2% YoY for all weeks so far in this quarter</li>
</ul>


Weekly balance sheets at US banks show a strong economy, and likely far better 3Q25 results for banks
Credit growth continues to accelerate, now at 4.67% YoY, weekly CP data is very strong, at +26% YoY
Credit metrics appear very strong, with LLR growing at almost nothing, at 1.36% YoY and less than 2% YoY for all weeks so far in this quarter


US Banks - Weekly Loans Accelerate to 4.67% YoY, LLR at Only +1.36% YoY, CP +26% YoY

<ul>
<li>SYF quarterly credit metrics is a sign of well improving consumer credit metrics</li>
<li>Credit costs are moving lower, in all quarters from June 2024 to June 2025</li>
<li>Total LLR coverage of loans remains high, NCO are shrinking: all is +ve</li>
</ul>


SYF quarterly credit metrics is a sign of well improving consumer credit metrics
Credit costs are moving lower, in all quarters from June 2024 to June 2025
Total LLR coverage of loans remains high, NCO are shrinking: all is +ve


Synchrony Financial - Progressively Lower Credit Costs, Still High LLR, Falling NCO Too

<ul>
<li>Large US banks show very strong loan acceleration weekly, not only due to small banks and their base effect</li>
<li>Credit metrics appear exceptional with almost no LLR growth at US banks, which is different to total banks system</li>
<li>Different to all banks and to smaller banks, US Large banks show still negative YoY growth in CRE loans - but with a lessor narrowing recently. </li>
</ul>


Large US banks show very strong loan acceleration weekly, not only due to small banks and their base effect
Credit metrics appear exceptional with almost no LLR growth at US banks, which is different to total banks system
Different to all banks and to smaller banks, US Large banks show still negative YoY growth in CRE loans - but with a lessor narrowing recently. 


US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets for Large Banks, Highly Positive with Only 0.58% YoY LLR

United States

JPMorgan Chase & Co. provides global financial services and retail banking. The Company provides services such as investment banking, treasury and securities services, asset management, private banking, card member services, commercial banking, and home finance. JP Morgan Chase serves business enterprises, institutions, and individuals.

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JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM US)

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows

Sony Financial starts trading today. Nikkei 225 index trackers will sell at the close and the buyback could mop up some of that selling.

Brian Freitas

US Banks - Lower Rates: Higher Loan Volume, Low LDR Can Mean +NIM

Volume of loans and commercial paper was already strong, now that debt is cheaper, this can accelerate. O/N CP rates already show rate cut. Low LDR...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Loans Accelerate to 4.67% YoY, LLR at Only +1.36% YoY, CP +26% YoY

Weekly balance sheets for US banks show accelerating 4.67% loan growth, and weekly CP data is very strong at +26% YoY. Credit metrics appear...

Daniel Tabbush

Synchrony Financial - Progressively Lower Credit Costs, Still High LLR, Falling NCO Too

SYF shows a narrowing of credit costs from 2Q24 to 2Q25, and it shows high LLR/loans over this time still, with declining net charge-offs. Suggests...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets for Large Banks, Highly Positive with Only 0.58% YoY LLR

Weekly HFD at large US banks is highly positive, showing almost no growth in LLR, and accelerating growth in loans. CRE loan growth remains negative.

Daniel Tabbush

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