Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Commercial paper (CP) market is for short-term working capital loans, and growth in most recent week is very strong, up 41% YoY. </li>
<li>We view the CP market as a good view on bank credit demand, underlying credit demand for working capital, which can lead to more investment. </li>
<li>Loan loss reserve (LLR) data is exceptional, in that it is almost not rising at all, with the latest week's growth rate down to just 1.1% YoY</li>
</ul>


Commercial paper (CP) market is for short-term working capital loans, and growth in most recent week is very strong, up 41% YoY. 
We view the CP market as a good view on bank credit demand, underlying credit demand for working capital, which can lead to more investment. 
Loan loss reserve (LLR) data is exceptional, in that it is almost not rising at all, with the latest week's growth rate down to just 1.1% YoY


US Banks - Commercial Paper +41% YoY in Most Recent Week, Loans +4.7%, LLR Growth Dwindles +1.1%

<ul>
<li>Enhanced financial data from the Fed shows off balance sheet loan commitments rising strongly now +3.7% YoY in 2Q25 (quarterly data only, just released)</li>
<li>Data suggests that loan growth we see for US banks (in weekly HFD) is not being driven by off B/S moving on B/S, rather it is true underlying demand</li>
<li>Newly release Probability of Default (PD) for credit card loans in the US is very positive, with thew worst bucket of &gt;20% PD falling to just 3.0% of loans</li>
</ul>


Enhanced financial data from the Fed shows off balance sheet loan commitments rising strongly now +3.7% YoY in 2Q25 (quarterly data only, just released)
Data suggests that loan growth we see for US banks (in weekly HFD) is not being driven by off B/S moving on B/S, rather it is true underlying demand
Newly release Probability of Default (PD) for credit card loans in the US is very positive, with thew worst bucket of &gt;20% PD falling to just 3.0% of loans


US Banks - Off B/S Growth +3.7% YoY in New 2Q25 Data, Credit Card PD Improve Dramatically

<ul>
<li>Overnight CP market in the US reflects the Fed rate cut immediately. Rates on overnight non-financial CP for A2/P2 companies now 4.20% (18 Sept) from 4.45% (17 Sept)</li>
<li>Weekly B/S for US banks has been showing for some time accelerating loan volume, with debt 5-7% less expensive overnight, loan volume should continue to accelerate</li>
<li>Where loans at US banks are only 67% of deposits, a 25bps reduction on both pools (loans, deposits) can be NIM expansionary. There are many moving parts, though. </li>
</ul>


Overnight CP market in the US reflects the Fed rate cut immediately. Rates on overnight non-financial CP for A2/P2 companies now 4.20% (18 Sept) from 4.45% (17 Sept)
Weekly B/S for US banks has been showing for some time accelerating loan volume, with debt 5-7% less expensive overnight, loan volume should continue to accelerate
Where loans at US banks are only 67% of deposits, a 25bps reduction on both pools (loans, deposits) can be NIM expansionary. There are many moving parts, though. 


US Banks - Lower Rates: Higher Loan Volume, Low LDR Can Mean +NIM

<ul>
<li>Weekly balance sheets at US banks show a strong economy, and likely far better 3Q25 results for banks</li>
<li>Credit growth continues to accelerate, now at 4.67% YoY, weekly CP data is very strong, at +26% YoY</li>
<li>Credit metrics appear very strong, with LLR growing at almost nothing, at 1.36% YoY and less than 2% YoY for all weeks so far in this quarter</li>
</ul>


Weekly balance sheets at US banks show a strong economy, and likely far better 3Q25 results for banks
Credit growth continues to accelerate, now at 4.67% YoY, weekly CP data is very strong, at +26% YoY
Credit metrics appear very strong, with LLR growing at almost nothing, at 1.36% YoY and less than 2% YoY for all weeks so far in this quarter


US Banks - Weekly Loans Accelerate to 4.67% YoY, LLR at Only +1.36% YoY, CP +26% YoY

<ul>
<li>SYF quarterly credit metrics is a sign of well improving consumer credit metrics</li>
<li>Credit costs are moving lower, in all quarters from June 2024 to June 2025</li>
<li>Total LLR coverage of loans remains high, NCO are shrinking: all is +ve</li>
</ul>


SYF quarterly credit metrics is a sign of well improving consumer credit metrics
Credit costs are moving lower, in all quarters from June 2024 to June 2025
Total LLR coverage of loans remains high, NCO are shrinking: all is +ve


Synchrony Financial - Progressively Lower Credit Costs, Still High LLR, Falling NCO Too

United States

JPMorgan Chase & Co. provides global financial services and retail banking. The Company provides services such as investment banking, treasury and securities services, asset management, private banking, card member services, commercial banking, and home finance. JP Morgan Chase serves business enterprises, institutions, and individuals.

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JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM US)

US Banks - Commercial Paper +41% YoY in Most Recent Week, Loans +4.7%, LLR Growth Dwindles +1.1%

Weekly data strengthens in US credit: CP shows 41% growth YoY in outstandings in most recent week. The small 1.1% growth rate of LLR for banks,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Off B/S Growth +3.7% YoY in New 2Q25 Data, Credit Card PD Improve Dramatically

US bank's off balance sheet data is just out, showing good, improving growth in commitments, suggesting underlying loan growth is real demand, not...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Lower Rates: Higher Loan Volume, Low LDR Can Mean +NIM

Volume of loans and commercial paper was already strong, now that debt is cheaper, this can accelerate. O/N CP rates already show rate cut. Low LDR...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Loans Accelerate to 4.67% YoY, LLR at Only +1.36% YoY, CP +26% YoY

Weekly balance sheets for US banks show accelerating 4.67% loan growth, and weekly CP data is very strong at +26% YoY. Credit metrics appear...

Daniel Tabbush

Synchrony Financial - Progressively Lower Credit Costs, Still High LLR, Falling NCO Too

SYF shows a narrowing of credit costs from 2Q24 to 2Q25, and it shows high LLR/loans over this time still, with declining net charge-offs. Suggests...

Daniel Tabbush

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