Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

FX & Rates

<p><strong>While the United States and China have not gone as far as re-introducing or increasing tariffs on each others’ imports, the war of words between the two trading superpowers has clearly escalated with Hong Kong caught in the middle.</strong></p><p><strong>In line with our expectations the Chinese Renminbi has depreciated versus (a weaker) Dollar and in nominal effective exchange rate terms in recent weeks (see Figures 1 &amp; 2). </strong></p><p><strong>Precedent suggests the Renminbi’s slide to an 11-week low is not coincidental but the by-product of the PBoC’s conscious decision to modestly weaken its currency and send a clear, if subtle message to the United States that China can retaliate in more ways than one.</strong></p><p><strong>The implications of a breakdown in US-China relations and a resumption of a full-blown trade war would of course reach far beyond a possible acceleration in the pace of Renminbi depreciation.</strong></p><p><strong>For starters any sustained Renminbi weakness would likely increase the odds of other Asian currencies also depreciating versus the Dollar with hands-on central banks keen to maintain their countries’ export competitiveness, particularly at this current juncture. </strong></p><p><strong>It is no coincidence, in our view, that Asian currencies on the whole remain highly correlated with the Renminbi and have underperformed since 12<sup>th</sup> May (see Figures 3 &amp; 4).</strong></p><p><strong>Moreover, the introduction of new import tariffs would, based on precedent, likely have a material and negative impact on world trade at a time when macro data suggest that global economic activity has only just started to very slowly recover from a very low base. </strong></p><p><strong>Any further headwind to global trade would likely delay any meaningful recovery in global supply and demand (see Figure 5) and cast further doubts on whether sequential global GDP growth can forge a V-shaped recovery in Q3 and Q4 2020 – the topic of our next Smartkarma Insight. </strong></p>

While the United States and China have not gone as far as re-introducing or increasing tariffs on each others’ imports, the war of words between the two trading superpowers has clearly escalated with Hong Kong caught in the middle.In line with our expectations the Chinese Renminbi has depreciated versus (a weaker) Dollar and in nominal effective exchange rate terms in recent weeks (see Figures 1 &amp; 2). Precedent suggests the Renminbi’s slide to an 11-week low is not coincidental but the by-product of the PBoC’s conscious decision to modestly weaken its currency and send a clear, if subtle message to the United States that China can retaliate in more ways than one.The implications of a breakdown in US-China relations and a resumption of a full-blown trade war would of course reach far beyond a possible acceleration in the pace of Renminbi depreciation.For starters any sustained Renminbi weakness would likely increase the odds of other Asian currencies also depreciating versus the Dollar with hands-on central banks keen to maintain their countries’ export competitiveness, particularly at this current juncture. It is no coincidence, in our view, that Asian currencies on the whole remain highly correlated with the Renminbi and have underperformed since 12th May (see Figures 3 &amp; 4).Moreover, the introduction of new import tariffs would, based on precedent, likely have a material and negative impact on world trade at a time when macro data suggest that global economic activity has only just started to very slowly recover from a very low base. Any further headwind to global trade would likely delay any meaningful recovery in global supply and demand (see Figure 5) and cast further doubts on whether sequential global GDP growth can forge a V-shaped recovery in Q3 and Q4 2020 – the topic of our next Smartkarma Insight. 

Chinese Renminbi – Canary in the Coal Mine

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<div>
<p>In our next Smartkarma Webinar, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/olivier-desbarres" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:6282" rel="noopener">Olivier Desbarres</a> will discuss his outlook for Asian currencies. The webinar will be held on 1 April 2020 at 1700hrs Singapore/Hong Kong time.</p>
<hr>
</div><div>
<div class="content-highlight"><h2>
<a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=502894640" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a>.</h2></div>
<hr>
<p>Olivier Desbarres has over 21 years of experience in the finance industry, including 15 years as a senior Economist, Rates and FX strategist for Credit Suisse and Barclays in Moscow, London and Singapore.</p>
<p>In his last role, he was Head of Asia-Pacific FX Strategy at Barclays in Singapore and focal point for G10 research. Prior to that, Olivier covered Emerging Europe, Middle and Africa at Credit Suisse in London where he built a strong track record with the world’s largest fund managers. He was also the UK Rates Strategist for two years and wrote extensively on EU and Eurozone membership.</p>
</div>


In our next Smartkarma Webinar, Olivier Desbarres will discuss his outlook for Asian currencies. The webinar will be held on 1 April 2020 at 1700hrs Singapore/Hong Kong time.



Register for the Webinar here.

Olivier Desbarres has over 21 years of experience in the finance industry, including 15 years as a senior Economist, Rates and FX strategist for Credit Suisse and Barclays in Moscow, London and Singapore.
In his last role, he was Head of Asia-Pacific FX Strategy at Barclays in Singapore and focal point for G10 research. Prior to that, Olivier covered Emerging Europe, Middle and Africa at Credit Suisse in London where he built a strong track record with the world’s largest fund managers. He was also the UK Rates Strategist for two years and wrote extensively on EU and Eurozone membership.


Smartkarma Webinar | Asian Currencies Outlook

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p>Equity markets are clearly overbought tactically with a more bullish macro underpin going into Q1 2020. Here we take a look at some higher conviction patterns that would tilt to a risk off sequence (equity pullback). We have touted putting on short protection in weaker equity sectors/stocks. </p><p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jpy" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22826:1">JPY (USDJPY CURNCY) , A</a>UD/JPY, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/w-t-offshore-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12370:1">W&amp;T Offshore (WTI US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY), T</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-states-treasury" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22878:1">reasury (10 Yr Generic) (T GOVT)</a> are all aligning for a mild to mid degree tactical pullback in equities within a higher degree macro bull cycle.</p><p>These wedge patterns exhibit a minimum 70% probability of breaking to the downside (gold to the upside) and in the case of the USD/JPY odds increase on the back of bear divergence we have outlined in recent weeks near the 109.50 barrier. 107.50 is the pivot level to test and break, holding would see a final push to the 110 topside barrier.</p>

Equity markets are clearly overbought tactically with a more bullish macro underpin going into Q1 2020. Here we take a look at some higher conviction patterns that would tilt to a risk off sequence (equity pullback). We have touted putting on short protection in weaker equity sectors/stocks. The JPY (USDJPY CURNCY) , AUD/JPY, W&amp;T Offshore (WTI US) , Gold (GOLD COMDTY), Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (T GOVT) are all aligning for a mild to mid degree tactical pullback in equities within a higher degree macro bull cycle.These wedge patterns exhibit a minimum 70% probability of breaking to the downside (gold to the upside) and in the case of the USD/JPY odds increase on the back of bear divergence we have outlined in recent weeks near the 109.50 barrier. 107.50 is the pivot level to test and break, holding would see a final push to the 110 topside barrier.

Risk Triggers that Would Lead an Equity Pullback

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/094/809/original/2019-08-04_13-24-01.png?1564892655" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="94809"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SOUTHBOUND</strong> - Two weeks into the announcements of the June quarter-end period, it is clear that the momentum of Japanese listed corporate earnings is still heading lower. Since July 22nd, 1,216 or 32% of companies have reported results and 292 forecast revisions have been announced. The Japan Analytics Results &amp; Revision Score reached a new 28-month low on Friday of 1.43, a decline of 78% from the current cycle peak of 6.50 on 16th November 2017. The correlation between the Score and the Market Capitalisation of listed companies excluding REITs is 0.77, and the Score is more of a leading or co-incident than lagging indicator.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/094/810/original/2019-08-04_13-32-15.png?1564893149" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="94810"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/094/812/original/2019-08-04_13-39-03.png?1564893556" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="94812"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>BREAKDOWN</strong> - The Results &amp; Revision Score is a weighted sum of three components, the Results Score, the Annual Forecast/Revision Score and the Interim Forecast/Revision Score, with the last of these only being applicable for nine months of each year. The two Forecast/Revision Scores are, as would be expected., leading indicators for the Results Score. The current quarter's Results Scor decline already exceeds the previous quarter's more-benign decline which also saw an increase in the Annual Forecast/Revision Score as the majority of companies 'rolled' their forecast ahead by one year. In contrast, the forecasts for the Interim period which for most companies ends next month were the most pessimistic since April 2016 and the mostly first-quarter results are confirming the early caution. In addition, full-year forecasts are also being downgraded and are at the lowest level for three months.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/094/816/original/2019-08-04_13-44-46.png?1564893904" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="94816"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>YEN DRIVER</strong> - The key driver of the Results &amp; Revision Score has been the year-on-year change in the US dollar/Yen exchange rate lagged by six months. The major turning points in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22826" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22826:1" rel="noopener">JUSDJPY CURNCY</a> over the last twelve years highlighted above line up well with changes in the direction of earnings momentum as represented by the Results &amp; Revision Score. With the Yen having reverted to a period of strengthening in recent weeks, the trend in the Score will be downwards over the next six months, which will be reflected in due course by the market.    </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we update our Market Composite Results Timeline, Sector and Peer Group Results &amp; Revision Scores, Sector Performance and Valuation and look at the best and worst large-cap individual company results over the last two weeks. In the meantime, we lighten the mood with a classic Allman Brother track featuring the incomparable Dicky Betts.</p></div><center></center><div class="content-caption">The Allman Brothers Band - Southbound - 1/16/1982 - University Of Florida Bandshell</div>

Source: Japan AnalyticsSOUTHBOUND - Two weeks into the announcements of the June quarter-end period, it is clear that the momentum of Japanese listed corporate earnings is still heading lower. Since July 22nd, 1,216 or 32% of companies have reported results and 292 forecast revisions have been announced. The Japan Analytics Results &amp; Revision Score reached a new 28-month low on Friday of 1.43, a decline of 78% from the current cycle peak of 6.50 on 16th November 2017. The correlation between the Score and the Market Capitalisation of listed companies excluding REITs is 0.77, and the Score is more of a leading or co-incident than lagging indicator.Source: Japan AnalyticsBREAKDOWN - The Results &amp; Revision Score is a weighted sum of three components, the Results Score, the Annual Forecast/Revision Score and the Interim Forecast/Revision Score, with the last of these only being applicable for nine months of each year. The two Forecast/Revision Scores are, as would be expected., leading indicators for the Results Score. The current quarter's Results Scor decline already exceeds the previous quarter's more-benign decline which also saw an increase in the Annual Forecast/Revision Score as the majority of companies 'rolled' their forecast ahead by one year. In contrast, the forecasts for the Interim period which for most companies ends next month were the most pessimistic since April 2016 and the mostly first-quarter results are confirming the early caution. In addition, full-year forecasts are also being downgraded and are at the lowest level for three months.Source: Japan AnalyticsYEN DRIVER - The key driver of the Results &amp; Revision Score has been the year-on-year change in the US dollar/Yen exchange rate lagged by six months. The major turning points in JUSDJPY CURNCY over the last twelve years highlighted above line up well with changes in the direction of earnings momentum as represented by the Results &amp; Revision Score. With the Yen having reverted to a period of strengthening in recent weeks, the trend in the Score will be downwards over the next six months, which will be reflected in due course by the market.    In the DETAIL section below, we update our Market Composite Results Timeline, Sector and Peer Group Results &amp; Revision Scores, Sector Performance and Valuation and look at the best and worst large-cap individual company results over the last two weeks. In the meantime, we lighten the mood with a classic Allman Brother track featuring the incomparable Dicky Betts.The Allman Brothers Band - Southbound - 1/16/1982 - University Of Florida Bandshell

🇯🇵 Japan • Summer Results & Revisions First Cut - Southbound

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jpy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22826:1">JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)</a> has formed a high conviction triangle pattern with odds favoring a bearish downside break that will inflect global risk appetite. This comes on the back of our call for risk aversion below NDX 7,700 as a warning of the SOX-NDX-SPX domino decline.</p><p>Weekly MACD triangles are the most powerful chart cycles/patterns that are followed by high momentum breakouts.</p><p>A stronger yen will crater risk appetite that is already in a vulnerable position with the break below SPX 2,800 support. Japanese equities are now vulnerable to a hard break down after breaking critical support at 20,700 particularly in light of the fact that the whole rise from December 2018 is viewed as a counter trend rally. We are now resuming the macro course.</p><p>Our short focus in Japan has been and remains Japanese banks.</p>

JPY (USDJPY CURNCY) has formed a high conviction triangle pattern with odds favoring a bearish downside break that will inflect global risk appetite. This comes on the back of our call for risk aversion below NDX 7,700 as a warning of the SOX-NDX-SPX domino decline.Weekly MACD triangles are the most powerful chart cycles/patterns that are followed by high momentum breakouts.A stronger yen will crater risk appetite that is already in a vulnerable position with the break below SPX 2,800 support. Japanese equities are now vulnerable to a hard break down after breaking critical support at 20,700 particularly in light of the fact that the whole rise from December 2018 is viewed as a counter trend rally. We are now resuming the macro course.Our short focus in Japan has been and remains Japanese banks.

JPY Macro Support Break Will Add to Global Risk Pressures

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

Chinese Renminbi – Canary in the Coal Mine

While the United States and China have not gone as far as re-introducing or increasing tariffs on each others’ imports, the war of words between...

Olivier Desbarres

Smartkarma Webinar | Asian Currencies Outlook

In our next Smartkarma Webinar, Olivier Desbarres will discuss his outlook for Asian currencies. The webinar will be held on 1 April 2020 at...

Smartkarma Research

Risk Triggers that Would Lead an Equity Pullback

Equity markets are clearly overbought tactically with a more bullish macro underpin going into Q1 2020. Here we take a look at some higher...

Thomas Schroeder

🇯🇵 Japan • Summer Results & Revisions First Cut - Southbound

SOUTHBOUND - Two weeks into the announcements of the June quarter-end period, it is clear that the momentum of Japanese listed corporate earnings...

Campbell Gunn

JPY Macro Support Break Will Add to Global Risk Pressures

JPY (USDJPY CURNCY) has formed a high conviction triangle pattern with odds favoring a bearish downside break that will inflect global risk...

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)