External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Bullish USD sentiment continues to fade. Net Non-Commercial (speculative) USD longs eased USD3bn on aggregate to USD23.5bn in the latest CFTC report covering the week through February 18th.</li><li>Additional data shows aggregate USD long positions held by Leveraged accounts (hedge funds) down USD2.5bn while Real Money (institutional) traders pared aggregate USD longs by a similar amount to sit net flat overall on the USD.</li><li>Combined net USD longs are down by a little over USD8bn in the latest data to total USD37.4bn, the lowest aggregate USD net long since the end of last year and down significantly from peak USD bullishness of near USD61bn seen in mid-January.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bullish USD sentiment continues to fade. Net Non-Commercial (speculative) USD longs eased USD3bn on aggregate to USD23.5bn in the latest CFTC report covering the week through February 18th.Additional data shows aggregate USD long positions held by Leveraged accounts (hedge funds) down USD2.5bn while Real Money (institutional) traders pared aggregate USD longs by a similar amount to sit net flat overall on the USD.Combined net USD longs are down by a little over USD8bn in the latest data to total USD37.4bn, the lowest aggregate USD net long since the end of last year and down significantly from peak USD bullishness of near USD61bn seen in mid-January.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Sentiment Fades

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>I wanted to get the German election results before releasing my weekly editorial, and as far as I can judge, we are talking about a middle-of-the-road outcome, which should be seen as a net positive for European assets for now.</li><li>CDU (Conservatives) and SPD (Social Democrats) will be able to form a GroKo (Grand Coalition) with 328 mandates, which is a coalition that could likely find some common ground around spending more and removing the debt brake, at least temporarily.</li><li>A permanent removal of the debt brake will require the backing of an additional party.</li></ul>

I wanted to get the German election results before releasing my weekly editorial, and as far as I can judge, we are talking about a middle-of-the-road outcome, which should be seen as a net positive for European assets for now.CDU (Conservatives) and SPD (Social Democrats) will be able to form a GroKo (Grand Coalition) with 328 mandates, which is a coalition that could likely find some common ground around spending more and removing the debt brake, at least temporarily.A permanent removal of the debt brake will require the backing of an additional party.

Steno Signals #186 – The year of the weak USD is upon us

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The 150 level on USD/JPY seems to be an area of heightened interest. We see potential for greater disparity of Nikkei returns below this level.</li>
<li>Nikkei 1-month implied vol is at the 17th percentile; while not currently monetizing, caution is warranted on short vol positions as USD/JPY vol trends higher.</li>
<li>Call volume dropped sharply vs total volume, with Puts outpacing Calls every day this week.</li>
</ul>


The 150 level on USD/JPY seems to be an area of heightened interest. We see potential for greater disparity of Nikkei returns below this level.
Nikkei 1-month implied vol is at the 17th percentile; while not currently monetizing, caution is warranted on short vol positions as USD/JPY vol trends higher.
Call volume dropped sharply vs total volume, with Puts outpacing Calls every day this week.


Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Feb 17 – 21): USD/JPY at Inflection Point

<ul><li>The trend in recent CFTC data reports has reflected a moderation in bullish USD sentiment since the mid-January peak and that trend continued with the latest report filed on Friday.</li><li>Aggregate net long USD positioning among Non-Commercial (speculative) traders dropped USD4.7bn to USD26.5bn, the largest decline since late September (though that was just before the USD started its three-month rally).</li><li>Softening bullish sentiment is reflected in reduced net USD longs held by Leveraged (hedge fund) traders, which fell USD1bn to USD14.2bn while Real Money (institutional) traders slashed net USD longs by more than half to USD2.4bn this week. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The trend in recent CFTC data reports has reflected a moderation in bullish USD sentiment since the mid-January peak and that trend continued with the latest report filed on Friday.Aggregate net long USD positioning among Non-Commercial (speculative) traders dropped USD4.7bn to USD26.5bn, the largest decline since late September (though that was just before the USD started its three-month rally).Softening bullish sentiment is reflected in reduced net USD longs held by Leveraged (hedge fund) traders, which fell USD1bn to USD14.2bn while Real Money (institutional) traders slashed net USD longs by more than half to USD2.4bn this week. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Fades as JPY Bulls Return

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

<ul>
<li>1M NKY implied volatility closed at 21.11 (down 0.58) as NKY went up 0.90%</li>
<li>Nikkei225 spots and 1M implied volatility are trading in a range with an increasing correlation to USDJPY.</li>
<li>Low volumes this week with a focus on gamma roll from Feb25 to Mar25 with some interests on skew structures from Mar25 to Dec25 in the inter-dealer broker market.</li>
</ul>


1M NKY implied volatility closed at 21.11 (down 0.58) as NKY went up 0.90%
Nikkei225 spots and 1M implied volatility are trading in a range with an increasing correlation to USDJPY.
Low volumes this week with a focus on gamma roll from Feb25 to Mar25 with some interests on skew structures from Mar25 to Dec25 in the inter-dealer broker market.


EQD: Weekly Nikkei Volatility Update (Feb 7th – Feb 14th)

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Sentiment Fades

Net Non-Commercial (speculative) USD longs eased USD3bn on aggregate to USD23.5bn in the latest CFTC report covering the week through February 18th.

Scotiabank

Steno Signals #186 – The year of the weak USD is upon us

I wanted to get the German election results before releasing my weekly editorial, and as far as I can judge, we are talking about a...

Steno Research

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Feb 17 – 21): USD/JPY at Inflection Point

Heightened interest in the 150 level on USD/JPY with potential for greater disparity in Nikkei returns below that; caution advised on short Nikkei...

John Ley

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Fades as JPY Bulls Return

The trend in recent CFTC data reports has reflected a moderation in bullish USD sentiment since the mid-January peak and that trend continued with...

Scotiabank

EQD: Weekly Nikkei Volatility Update (Feb 7th – Feb 14th)

1M NKY implied volatility closed at 21.11 (down 0.58) as NKY went up 0.90%. Nikkei225 spots and 1M implied volatility are trading in a range with...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Sentiment Fades

Net Non-Commercial (speculative) USD longs eased USD3bn on aggregate to USD23.5bn in the latest CFTC report covering the week through February 18th.

Scotiabank

Steno Signals #186 – The year of the weak USD is upon us

I wanted to get the German election results before releasing my weekly editorial, and as far as I can judge, we are talking about a...

Steno Research

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Feb 17 – 21): USD/JPY at Inflection Point

​Heightened interest in the 150 level on USD/JPY with potential for greater disparity in Nikkei returns below that; caution advised on short Nikkei...

John Ley

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Fades as JPY Bulls Return

The trend in recent CFTC data reports has reflected a moderation in bullish USD sentiment since the mid-January peak and that trend continued with...

Scotiabank

EQD: Weekly Nikkei Volatility Update (Feb 7th – Feb 14th)

1M NKY implied volatility closed at 21.11 (down 0.58) as NKY went up 0.90%. Nikkei225 spots and 1M implied volatility are trading in a range with...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Heightened interest in the 150 level on USD/JPY with potential for greater disparity in Nikkei returns below that; caution advised on short Nikkei...