Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Friday’s bizarre scenes in the Oval Office will take some time to digest for all involved counterparties.</li>
<li>I don’t feel in a position to judge either side, but I will use this analysis to assess the ramifications of the event.</li>
<li>As a disclaimer, remember that I am European!Trump’s argument that the U.S. pays too much to the rest of the world is, in many ways, entirely correct—but also quite banal.</li>
</ul>


Friday’s bizarre scenes in the Oval Office will take some time to digest for all involved counterparties.
I don’t feel in a position to judge either side, but I will use this analysis to assess the ramifications of the event.
As a disclaimer, remember that I am European!Trump’s argument that the U.S. pays too much to the rest of the world is, in many ways, entirely correct—but also quite banal.


Steno Signals #187 – Remember August & September 2024? Tariffs are to blame

<ul><li>I wanted to get the German election results before releasing my weekly editorial, and as far as I can judge, we are talking about a middle-of-the-road outcome, which should be seen as a net positive for European assets for now.</li><li>CDU (Conservatives) and SPD (Social Democrats) will be able to form a GroKo (Grand Coalition) with 328 mandates, which is a coalition that could likely find some common ground around spending more and removing the debt brake, at least temporarily.</li><li>A permanent removal of the debt brake will require the backing of an additional party.</li></ul>

I wanted to get the German election results before releasing my weekly editorial, and as far as I can judge, we are talking about a middle-of-the-road outcome, which should be seen as a net positive for European assets for now.CDU (Conservatives) and SPD (Social Democrats) will be able to form a GroKo (Grand Coalition) with 328 mandates, which is a coalition that could likely find some common ground around spending more and removing the debt brake, at least temporarily.A permanent removal of the debt brake will require the backing of an additional party.

Steno Signals #186 – The year of the weak USD is upon us

Crypto Investing and Decentralized Finance, Coinstack

Coinstack

Crypto Investing and Decentralized Finance

Coinstack is published weekly by Ryan Allis. He was previously CEO and Co-founder of iContact and led the company from 300 employees, 70,000 customers, and $50M in annual sales and an exit for $169M. Ryan was an angel investor in SpaceX, LendingClub, Change.org, Kuli Kuli, and Catalant. Today, Ryan advises companies and governments on blockchain-related projects and is the Chairman of Hive.org, a global community of 3,500 purpose-driven leaders from 130 countries making a positive impact in the world. Ryan holds an MBA from Harvard Business School where he was Co-President of the Harvard Social Enterprise Club and a fellow of the Harvard Graduate School Leadership Institute.

Crypto

<ul><li>Bitcoin closed near $76,819 (CoinGecko, Sep 13 close), down 4.4% w/w after touching $76.5K midweek.</li><li>August CPI ran core 0.1pp hot: 0.3% MoM vs 0.2% expected. Headline 0.4% MoM, 3.4% YoY (in line).</li><li>September Fed hike odds jumped to over 86% on CME FedWatch.</li></ul>

Bitcoin closed near $76,819 (CoinGecko, Sep 13 close), down 4.4% w/w after touching $76.5K midweek.August CPI ran core 0.1pp hot: 0.3% MoM vs 0.2% expected. Headline 0.4% MoM, 3.4% YoY (in line).September Fed hike odds jumped to over 86% on CME FedWatch.

Macro, FX and Rates Strategist

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Japan's 30-year yields 4.16%, 236 basis points over the Bank of Japan's neutral midpoint. Part is fiscal premium; the rest is the price of a domestic bid returning at 4%</li>
<li>Post-Covid inflation was supply-driven, imported through the yen, oil and food. Inflation excluding food and energy never exceeded 2.7%. Real wages are rising, consumption grows 1%: neutral, not above it.</li>
<li>The buyers' strike is ending. Life insurers sold ¥2.1 trillion of super-longs in FY2025 and are buying again; Meiji Yasuda doubled its plan; GPIF is pressed to add domestic assets.</li>
</ul>


Japan's 30-year yields 4.16%, 236 basis points over the Bank of Japan's neutral midpoint. Part is fiscal premium; the rest is the price of a domestic bid returning at 4%
Post-Covid inflation was supply-driven, imported through the yen, oil and food. Inflation excluding food and energy never exceeded 2.7%. Real wages are rising, consumption grows 1%: neutral, not above it.
The buyers' strike is ending. Life insurers sold ¥2.1 trillion of super-longs in FY2025 and are buying again; Meiji Yasuda doubled its plan; GPIF is pressed to add domestic assets.


Priced for a Japan That Has Not Existed Since 1991, Long the 30-Year JGB at 4.16%

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s The Drill, which I will be authoring by myself moving forward.</li><li>This means a continued focus on commodities and energy, but also an increased dosage of geopolitics as many of you have wished for.</li><li>Each week, we’ll cover a couple of key topics as well as provide you with a sneak peak into our data models and what they have to say on commodities.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s The Drill, which I will be authoring by myself moving forward.This means a continued focus on commodities and energy, but also an increased dosage of geopolitics as many of you have wished for.Each week, we’ll cover a couple of key topics as well as provide you with a sneak peak into our data models and what they have to say on commodities.

The Drill – Oil down and precious metals UP.. The short USD trade in Geopolitics

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Steno Signals #187 – Remember August & September 2024? Tariffs are to blame

Friday’s bizarre scenes in the Oval Office will take some time to digest for all involved counterparties. I don’t feel in a position to judge...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #186 – The year of the weak USD is upon us

I wanted to get the German election results before releasing my weekly editorial, and as far as I can judge, we are talking about a...

Steno Research

Two Catalysts. One Big Week

Bitcoin closed near $76,819 (CoinGecko, Sep 13 close), down 4.4% w/w after touching $76.5K midweek.August CPI ran core 0.1pp hot: 0.3% MoM vs 0.2%...

Coinstack

Priced for a Japan That Has Not Existed Since 1991, Long the 30-Year JGB at 4.16%

The 30-year JGB is priced for an economy Japan has not had since 1991. The insurers are back, the GPIF is being told to buy, and 4% is the level....

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

The Drill – Oil down and precious metals UP.. The short USD trade in Geopolitics

Welcome to this week’s The Drill, which I will be authoring by myself moving forward. This means a continued focus on commodities and energy, but...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)