External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The aggregate USD short position narrowed $1.8bn in the week ended July 1, softening modestly to $18.3bn.</li><li>The bearish position is at the wider end of its multiyear range, but still well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.</li><li>Individual currency positioning adjustments were modest overall, favoring the USD while the AUD and NZD positions were left unchanged. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD short position narrowed $1.8bn in the week ended July 1, softening modestly to $18.3bn.The bearish position is at the wider end of its multiyear range, but still well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.Individual currency positioning adjustments were modest overall, favoring the USD while the AUD and NZD positions were left unchanged. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Aggregate Bearish USD Position Holds Steady In Holiday Week

<ul><li>The aggregate USD short position widened $1.7bn in the week ended June 24, reaching $20.1bn.</li><li>The bearish position has already reached fresh local wides (lows) and is threatening the wides briefly tested in mid-2023.</li><li>This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor deterioration in the GBP (long reduction).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD short position widened $1.7bn in the week ended June 24, reaching $20.1bn.The bearish position has already reached fresh local wides (lows) and is threatening the wides briefly tested in mid-2023.This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor deterioration in the GBP (long reduction).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Bet Continues to Build

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul>
<li>FX volumes expected to remain steady in the next month and a half before potentially increasing later in Q3</li>
<li>Dollar risk reversals are priced expensively for puts, suggesting the need for alternative option structures</li>
<li>Consideration of bullish yen option trades in lower beta crossian underlyings like CNH as alternatives to dollar yen positions due to stretched spec positioning and high carry costs</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


FX volumes expected to remain steady in the next month and a half before potentially increasing later in Q3
Dollar risk reversals are priced expensively for puts, suggesting the need for alternative option structures
Consideration of bullish yen option trades in lower beta crossian underlyings like CNH as alternatives to dollar yen positions due to stretched spec positioning and high carry costs

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX Derivatives: Thin Cushion. A Slippery Slope from Calm to Uncertainty

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Japanese Equities flat vs. World +1.73% and US +2.98%, Japan +5.56%, Europe +1.56%</li><li>Japan Sectors: Nonferrous Metals +8.26%, Electric Appliances +5.97%, Machinery +5.37% while Mining -5.23% and Real Estate -1.11%</li><li>JPY 5Y Rates up 1bp, ITRAXX Japan 5Y down 1.73 at 61.45</li></ul>

Japanese Equities flat vs. World +1.73% and US +2.98%, Japan +5.56%, Europe +1.56%Japan Sectors: Nonferrous Metals +8.26%, Electric Appliances +5.97%, Machinery +5.37% while Mining -5.23% and Real Estate -1.11%JPY 5Y Rates up 1bp, ITRAXX Japan 5Y down 1.73 at 61.45

Weekly Macroeconomic Report (2025, July 1st)

<ul>
<li>Dollar decoupled from US rates and equities, investors expected to chase dollar lower</li>
<li>Dollar positioning not as crowded as perceived, global holdings of US equities still large</li>
<li>Unlikely for significant repatriation of Japanese foreign bond investments, focus on rebalancing rather than one-way repatriation; implications of upcoming election on Yen uncertain</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Dollar decoupled from US rates and equities, investors expected to chase dollar lower
Dollar positioning not as crowded as perceived, global holdings of US equities still large
Unlikely for significant repatriation of Japanese foreign bond investments, focus on rebalancing rather than one-way repatriation; implications of upcoming election on Yen uncertain

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Mid-Year Outlook - Tell me something new

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Aggregate Bearish USD Position Holds Steady In Holiday Week

The bearish position is at the wider end of its multiyear range, but still well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.

Scotiabank

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Bet Continues to Build

This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor...

Scotiabank

Global FX Derivatives: Thin Cushion. A Slippery Slope from Calm to Uncertainty

For the next month and a half, FX volumes are expected to remain steady before a possible increase in late Q3, with dollar performance likely to...

At Any Rate

Weekly Macroeconomic Report (2025, July 1st)

Japanese Equities flat vs. World +1.73% and US +2.98%, Japan +5.56%, Europe +1.56%. Japan Sectors: Nonferrous Metals +8.26%, Electric Appliances...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Global FX: Mid-Year Outlook - Tell me something new

The decoupling of the dollar view from US rates and equities is expected, with a focus on Japan flows and the upcoming upper house election...

At Any Rate

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