Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, logistics company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/senko-group-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5287:1" rel="noopener">SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (9069 JP)</a> announced a bid for logistics company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruwn-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18411:1" rel="noopener">Maruwn Corp (9067 JP)</a> with help from 35% holder <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The TOB only needs 11+% to get to 50.1%. There are three holders who Senko clearly regard as not necessarily agreeable to the deal. They hold 28.0% between them. </li>
<li>If someone wanted to thwart this deal, there are a number of ways to do it. This could get interesting. </li>
</ul>


Today, logistics company SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (9069 JP) announced a bid for logistics company Maruwn Corp (9067 JP) with help from 35% holder JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP). 
The TOB only needs 11+% to get to 50.1%. There are three holders who Senko clearly regard as not necessarily agreeable to the deal. They hold 28.0% between them. 
If someone wanted to thwart this deal, there are a number of ways to do it. This could get interesting. 


[Japan M&A] Senko Group (9069 JP) Bids for Maruwn (9067 JP) In Deal Which May Trigger Fireworks

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Oct 10th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,836m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in IHI, SoftBank, Fast Retailing, Advantest, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Keyence, Nojima, Kobe Bussan, Hitachi, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ihi, Softbank, Fast Retailing, Advantest.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Oct 10th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,836m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in IHI, SoftBank, Fast Retailing, Advantest, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Keyence, Nojima, Kobe Bussan, Hitachi, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ihi, Softbank, Fast Retailing, Advantest.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Oct 10th): IHI, SoftBank, Fast Retailing, Advantest

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Tekscend Photomask / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tekscend-photomask-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45819:1" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)</a> is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. At the IPO price, Tekscend will raise JPY138 billion (US$910 million). The shares will be listed on 16 October.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tekscend-photomask-429a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:203592" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tekscend-photomask-429a-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:203753" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tekscend-photomask-429a-jp-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:204079" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The peers have re-rated since the release of the prospectus. My analysis suggests that Tekscend is attractively valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. At the IPO price, Tekscend will raise JPY138 billion (US$910 million). The shares will be listed on 16 October.
I previously discussed the IPO in Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case and Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights. 
The peers have re-rated since the release of the prospectus. My analysis suggests that Tekscend is attractively valued at the IPO price.


Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Trading Debut

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The sharp rally in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.</li>
<li>The stock is already a member of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX Index</a> and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.</li>
<li>There will be more passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> in April when the liquidity factor in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX Index</a> increases from 0.75 to 1.</li>
</ul>


The sharp rally in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
The stock is already a member of the TOPIX Index and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.
There will be more passive buying in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) in April when the liquidity factor in the TOPIX Index increases from 0.75 to 1.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Business: Japan’s largest integrated energy group, ENEOS runs ~45% of national refining capacity, upstream assets, power generation, and holds 42% of JX Advanced Metals.</li>
<li>Earnings (3Y): OP peaked at ¥504 bn in FY2023 on high oil prices, fell to ¥107 bn in FY2024 on inventory losses, and is guided to ¥300 bn in FY2025.</li>
<li>Valuation &amp; Risks: Trades at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~¥900/share), above our SOTP fair value (~¥690); key risks include crude volatility, shrinking domestic fuel demand, high leverage, and transition execution.</li>
</ul>


Business: Japan’s largest integrated energy group, ENEOS runs ~45% of national refining capacity, upstream assets, power generation, and holds 42% of JX Advanced Metals.
Earnings (3Y): OP peaked at ¥504 bn in FY2023 on high oil prices, fell to ¥107 bn in FY2024 on inventory losses, and is guided to ¥300 bn in FY2025.
Valuation &amp; Risks: Trades at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~¥900/share), above our SOTP fair value (~¥690); key risks include crude volatility, shrinking domestic fuel demand, high leverage, and transition execution.


ENEOS Holdings (TSE: 5020): Cash Returns Support, Valuation Capped

Japan

JX Advanced Metals Corporation mines and distributes non ferrous metal products. The Company smelts, refines, and markets non ferrous metals such as copper, gold, silver, and more. JX Advanced Metals also sells semiconductor materials, special steel materials, and other products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)

[Japan M&A] Senko Group (9069 JP) Bids for Maruwn (9067 JP) In Deal Which May Trigger Fireworks

Senko is bidding for Maruwn with the help of JX Advanced Materials. Looks easy. It might be less easy than the bidder thinks. Tough to block, but...

Travis Lundy

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Oct 10th): IHI, SoftBank, Fast Retailing, Advantest

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted IHI (7013 JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Trading Debut

The peers have re-rated since the release of the prospectus. My analysis suggests that Tekscend is attractively valued at the IPO price.

Arun George