Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Kasumigaseki Capital / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Kasumigaseki Capital is a small cap consulting real estate speculator/developer. They have an interesting, aggressive model. People will recognise the model from pre-GFC but this one is structured better.</li>
<li>The company had planned explosive growth and in October, brought growth plans forward and guidance way up. Now there is an offering to fund that growth. </li>
<li>It appears to also be an offering to get a very large short position out of a risk of potential squeeze. For that, I expect this goes smoothly.</li>
</ul>


Kasumigaseki Capital is a small cap consulting real estate speculator/developer. They have an interesting, aggressive model. People will recognise the model from pre-GFC but this one is structured better.
The company had planned explosive growth and in October, brought growth plans forward and guidance way up. Now there is an offering to fund that growth. 
It appears to also be an offering to get a very large short position out of a risk of potential squeeze. For that, I expect this goes smoothly.


Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) - An Offering Worth Examining

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Over the weekend I wrote about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasumigaseki-capital-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40162:1" rel="noopener">Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP)</a>'s move to TSE Prime and then move to TOPIX. I noted earnings would be out 3 October.  </li>
<li>I talked about the possibility of a surprise. They had revised full-year to end-Sep to ¥2bn. They got ¥2.05bn. </li>
<li>But after growing revenue 79% last year, and growing net profit 101%, this year they expect revs +60% and Net Profit +144%. </li>
</ul>


Over the weekend I wrote about Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP)'s move to TSE Prime and then move to TOPIX. I noted earnings would be out 3 October.  
I talked about the possibility of a surprise. They had revised full-year to end-Sep to ¥2bn. They got ¥2.05bn. 
But after growing revenue 79% last year, and growing net profit 101%, this year they expect revs +60% and Net Profit +144%. 


UPDATE: Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving to TOPIX. Forward Earnings/Aggressive Forecast Surprise

<ul>
<li>Real estate consultant/developer/speculator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasumigaseki-capital-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40162:1" rel="noopener">Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP)</a> announced Friday that it would move from TSE Growth to TSE Prime on 6 October. </li>
<li>The stock was on the list of top potential candidates in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusions-who-is-ready-sep-2023" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:112689" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2023)</a> (and has been for nearly a year). It's a good list.</li>
<li>This event leads to a TOPIX inclusion on 29 November. Analysis below.</li>
</ul>


Real estate consultant/developer/speculator Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) announced Friday that it would move from TSE Growth to TSE Prime on 6 October. 
The stock was on the list of top potential candidates in TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2023) (and has been for nearly a year). It's a good list.
This event leads to a TOPIX inclusion on 29 November. Analysis below.


Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving To TOPIX End-November

<ul>
<li>Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.</li>
<li>This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.</li>
<li>I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. </li>
</ul>


Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.
This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.
I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. 


Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

<ul>
<li>Every year in April there is an interesting phenomenon with TOPIX. It is what <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> calls "The Big April Basket." The TSE re-assesses Liquidity Factor Coefficients.</li>
<li>It also does a FFW change, and this year it has Phased Weight Reductions for those slowly leaving TOPIX and PWR re-inclusions for those identified last October as going back.</li>
<li>Janaghan had 18 "High Conviction" LF removals. All were hits. They are upweights. Then there are 34 changes to FFW coefficients.</li>
</ul>


Every year in April there is an interesting phenomenon with TOPIX. It is what Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA calls "The Big April Basket." The TSE re-assesses Liquidity Factor Coefficients.
It also does a FFW change, and this year it has Phased Weight Reductions for those slowly leaving TOPIX and PWR re-inclusions for those identified last October as going back.
Janaghan had 18 "High Conviction" LF removals. All were hits. They are upweights. Then there are 34 changes to FFW coefficients.


The TOPIX Big April Basket Flows:  ¥200bn a Side Including Many Multi-ADV Flows

Japan

Kasumigaseki Capital Co.,Ltd. provides solar plant construction and development services. The Company offers electricity transmission, power system management, network maintenance, and other services. Kasumigaseki Capital serves customers in Japan.

Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP)