Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In March, NYK announced a new Mid-Term Management Plan discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nippon-yusen-new-midtermplan-new-shareholder-return-policy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97501" rel="noopener">Nippon Yusen - New MidTermPlan = New Shareholder Return Policy</a>. They promised a full Shareholder Return Policy in May. </li>
<li>There was limited new SRP discussion in the 9 May earnings announcement. The MTMP suggested ¥200bn over 2yrs. The (Japanese) earnings announcement did too. Then May ended. </li>
<li>Now the Buyback Plan is out. ¥200bn over 9mos. That is different. This could move. </li>
</ul>


In March, NYK announced a new Mid-Term Management Plan discussed in Nippon Yusen - New MidTermPlan = New Shareholder Return Policy. They promised a full Shareholder Return Policy in May. 
There was limited new SRP discussion in the 9 May earnings announcement. The MTMP suggested ¥200bn over 2yrs. The (Japanese) earnings announcement did too. Then May ended. 
Now the Buyback Plan is out. ¥200bn over 9mos. That is different. This could move. 


Nippon Yusen (9101) BIG Buyback Announced

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> announced Q1 earnings. As expected, net was WAY down on weak container business. But the company revised up H1 and Full-Year.</li>
<li>KLINE increased its FY2023 payout, upping its expected buyback plan from ¥50bn to ¥60bn. This is still cheap at 8.5x and 0.7x book, and there is non-container growth. </li>
<li>The structure of the buyback deserves attention. It may deserve a very short-term trade. The buyback construct has the possibility of "fun and games."</li>
</ul>


Today, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) announced Q1 earnings. As expected, net was WAY down on weak container business. But the company revised up H1 and Full-Year.
KLINE increased its FY2023 payout, upping its expected buyback plan from ¥50bn to ¥60bn. This is still cheap at 8.5x and 0.7x book, and there is non-container growth. 
The structure of the buyback deserves attention. It may deserve a very short-term trade. The buyback construct has the possibility of "fun and games."


KLINE (9107) Ups Shareholder Return - Fun & Games May Ensue

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rates remain depressed but stable, and easier Y/Y comps will arrive in late Summer</li>
<li>Fuel costs should be a tailwind in Q2 results; Danish giant Maersk reports on August 4th</li>
<li>We expect Q2/H1 results to support our view that the worst of the storm has passed</li>
</ul>


Rates remain depressed but stable, and easier Y/Y comps will arrive in late Summer
Fuel costs should be a tailwind in Q2 results; Danish giant Maersk reports on August 4th
We expect Q2/H1 results to support our view that the worst of the storm has passed


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Depressed, Stable | Worst of 'Storm' Passed (July 2023)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were a bunch of rebalances across different index families that were implemented at the close of trading on Friday.</li>
<li>The coming week is quieter though there are a couple of ad hoc rebalances for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Yet another week of inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a> as the number of units outstanding is nearly the highest over the last couple of years.</li>
</ul>


There were a bunch of rebalances across different index families that were implemented at the close of trading on Friday.
The coming week is quieter though there are a couple of ad hoc rebalances for the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX). 
Yet another week of inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) as the number of units outstanding is nearly the highest over the last couple of years.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger

<ul>
<li>Today, YFO (WK1 Limited) filed an <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100QXII.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2023-06-13T12%3A26%3A16Z&amp;se=2028-06-13T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=oUK2bOEu4Z3eq5k0U3V3UgPd%2FFhlZkvPaUiHl9LDMjc%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">amendment</a> to its Large Shareholder Filing saying it had increased its stake from 27.19% to 28.51%. GK Yamauchi No10 Family Office bought 1.32%.</li>
<li>Almost immediately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> said YFO<a href="https://www.toyo-const.co.jp/wp/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/20230613.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> had likely conducted an illegal act</a> according to US Securities Exchange Act of 1934, Rule 14e-5. This is likely hogwash.</li>
<li>YFO is upping its stake for a zero premium tender and Toyo is fighting old battles. And the stock chugs higher.</li>
</ul>


Today, YFO (WK1 Limited) filed an amendment to its Large Shareholder Filing saying it had increased its stake from 27.19% to 28.51%. GK Yamauchi No10 Family Office bought 1.32%.
Almost immediately, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) said YFO had likely conducted an illegal act according to US Securities Exchange Act of 1934, Rule 14e-5. This is likely hogwash.
YFO is upping its stake for a zero premium tender and Toyo is fighting old battles. And the stock chugs higher.


Yamauchi Family Office Buys More Toyo; Toyo Claims More Malfeasance, ISS Supports YFO

Japan

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. operates marine cargo and passenger transportation around the world.  The Company provides ocean liner, bulk carrier, car carrier, unscheduled specialized carrier, and energy transportation services. The Company also offers insurance, warehousing, and land transportation services.  Items transported include automobile, grain, petroleum, coal, iron ore, and wood chip.

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Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)

Nippon Yusen (9101) BIG Buyback Announced

NYK has surprised the market with a larger-than-expected buyback. It was supposed to be 200bn yen over 2yrs. It is now 200bn over 9mos. Real World...

Travis Lundy

KLINE (9107) Ups Shareholder Return - Fun & Games May Ensue

KLINE reported Q1 earnings. It also upped H1 and full-year forecasts slightly in most areas. IT announced a buyback which was larger than expected,...

Travis Lundy

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Depressed, Stable | Worst of 'Storm' Passed (July 2023)

Our research tracking container rates and profitability suggests that the worst of the storm has passed, and that we should see easier Y/Y comps...

Tracking Traffic

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Yamauchi Family Office Buys More Toyo; Toyo Claims More Malfeasance, ISS Supports YFO

Toyo rails against YFO. ISS recommends to mostly support YFO. YFO increases its stake in Toyo Construction, Toyo objects and calls it unfair...

Travis Lundy

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