Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>It has been a roller-coaster week for Vision Fund performance with Coupang pricing its IPO at a premium to already heady valuations whilst at the opposite end of the spectrum fintech investee Greensill has completed a rather quick move to insolvency. Markets seems to have taken both in stride as Softbank shares continues to hover above the ¥10,000 level whilst the corresponding discount to underlying public values remains at c. 20%. Since Softbank reported Q3 results, tech shares in the US have weakened and Vision Fund portfolio companies are down 14%/$7bn. Whilst expectations of further IPOs (Grab and or Didi) are supportive, share price performance will rely heavily on US tech sentiment going forward. </p><p><strong>Highlights</strong></p><p><strong>Coupang has reportedly priced its IPO at $35, which is well ahead of our fair value but not surprising in a frothy market. </strong>Coupang’s recent growth acceleration and move towards profitability make the stock attractive despite the premium valuation. The reported price implies a 3.1x EV/FY21e sales which is much higher than a direct peer group that includes Amazon (2.8x sales).</p><p><strong>Greensill has collapsed with Vision Fund exposure of up to $2bn. </strong>That is a lot of money but Coupang upside will outshine the impact on Vision Fund performance when quarterly numbers come out. What is worrisome is that this marks the second time a Softbank-backed financial firm has failed following Wirecard last summer. In addition, Greensill reportedly provided funding to four or five Vision Fund companies (Katerra, Oyo, View, Fair, Guazi) and without any disclosure it is not known whether Greensill’s demise would have a knock-on effect.</p><p><strong>Vision Fund’s public portfolio is down 14% since Q3 results</strong>. The volatility in tech valuations in the US has had an impact on Vision Fund’s public portfolio which is down 14% (or $6.9bn) since 9 February led by a 28% decline in DoorDash and a 19% decline in Beike (in VF 2).  That excludes any losses that may come at the cash management subsidiary Northstar which had $22bn invested in liquid tech assets at the end of Dec. AT Q3 results, Softbank said a $1bn loss at the end of the quarter had inverted to a c. $1bn gain by 9 February and that easily could have inflected again.   </p>

It has been a roller-coaster week for Vision Fund performance with Coupang pricing its IPO at a premium to already heady valuations whilst at the opposite end of the spectrum fintech investee Greensill has completed a rather quick move to insolvency. Markets seems to have taken both in stride as Softbank shares continues to hover above the ¥10,000 level whilst the corresponding discount to underlying public values remains at c. 20%. Since Softbank reported Q3 results, tech shares in the US have weakened and Vision Fund portfolio companies are down 14%/$7bn. Whilst expectations of further IPOs (Grab and or Didi) are supportive, share price performance will rely heavily on US tech sentiment going forward. HighlightsCoupang has reportedly priced its IPO at $35, which is well ahead of our fair value but not surprising in a frothy market. Coupang’s recent growth acceleration and move towards profitability make the stock attractive despite the premium valuation. The reported price implies a 3.1x EV/FY21e sales which is much higher than a direct peer group that includes Amazon (2.8x sales).Greensill has collapsed with Vision Fund exposure of up to $2bn. That is a lot of money but Coupang upside will outshine the impact on Vision Fund performance when quarterly numbers come out. What is worrisome is that this marks the second time a Softbank-backed financial firm has failed following Wirecard last summer. In addition, Greensill reportedly provided funding to four or five Vision Fund companies (Katerra, Oyo, View, Fair, Guazi) and without any disclosure it is not known whether Greensill’s demise would have a knock-on effect.Vision Fund’s public portfolio is down 14% since Q3 results. The volatility in tech valuations in the US has had an impact on Vision Fund’s public portfolio which is down 14% (or $6.9bn) since 9 February led by a 28% decline in DoorDash and a 19% decline in Beike (in VF 2).  That excludes any losses that may come at the cash management subsidiary Northstar which had $22bn invested in liquid tech assets at the end of Dec. AT Q3 results, Softbank said a $1bn loss at the end of the quarter had inverted to a c. $1bn gain by 9 February and that easily could have inflected again.   

Softbank Group - Vision Fund Ups and Downs: Coupang and Greensill

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Coupang, one of the largest product e-commerce players in Korea, raised around US$4.2bn in its US listing via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares. </p></div><div><p>In our previous note, links to which are below, we have spoke about various aspects of the deal. In this note, talk about the trading dynamics and provide a valuation table at different  share price levels.</p></div><div><p>We've covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier insights: </p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-the-positives-fast-growth-sticky-customers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Sticky Customers</a>, </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-the-negatives-horrendous-data-disclosures-including-no-mention-of-ott-launch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Horrendous Data Disclosures, Including No Mention of OTT Launch</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-fair-bit-of-competition-but-it-s-doing-better-than-most-local-peers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - Fair Bit of Competition but It’s Doing Better than Most Local Peers</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-earnings-forecast-and-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-momentum-play-unequal-lock-up-index-inclusion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO - Momentum Play, Unequal Lock-Up, Index Inclusion</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-quick-note-peers-move-down-range-moves-up-ripe-for-trading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO - Quick Note - Peers Move Down, Range Moves Up. Ripe for Trading.</a></li>
</ul></div>

Coupang, one of the largest product e-commerce players in Korea, raised around US$4.2bn in its US listing via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares. In our previous note, links to which are below, we have spoke about various aspects of the deal. In this note, talk about the trading dynamics and provide a valuation table at different  share price levels.We've covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier insights: 

Coupang Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Sticky Customers, 
Coupang Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Horrendous Data Disclosures, Including No Mention of OTT Launch
Coupang Pre-IPO - Fair Bit of Competition but It’s Doing Better than Most Local Peers
Coupang Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation
Coupang IPO - Momentum Play, Unequal Lock-Up, Index Inclusion
Coupang IPO - Quick Note - Peers Move Down, Range Moves Up. Ripe for Trading.


Coupang IPO Trading - Most Hit near Term Peak on the First Day - Key Trading/Lock-Up Dates

<p>Softbank Group shares fell 5% which seems like an outsize move relative to the overall markets (TOPIX -2%, NASDAQ -0.5%) but that does come off a record low discount (-16%). And whilst that has expanded to 20% it remains far better than the 27% discount when the company reported Q3 results on 8 Feb. One big difference is the Coupang IPO filing which implies at least $10bn in upside for Vision Fund based on aspirational pricing. If tech sentiment decidedly turns, the lost potential is probably as relevant for Softbank shares as today’s absolute downside for Vision Fund (-$1bn) and Alibaba (-2%, ~$2bn).</p>

Softbank Group shares fell 5% which seems like an outsize move relative to the overall markets (TOPIX -2%, NASDAQ -0.5%) but that does come off a record low discount (-16%). And whilst that has expanded to 20% it remains far better than the 27% discount when the company reported Q3 results on 8 Feb. One big difference is the Coupang IPO filing which implies at least $10bn in upside for Vision Fund based on aspirational pricing. If tech sentiment decidedly turns, the lost potential is probably as relevant for Softbank shares as today’s absolute downside for Vision Fund (-$1bn) and Alibaba (-2%, ~$2bn).

Softbank Group: Jitters in a Frothy Market

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Cloopen Group Holding Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloopen-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31315:1" rel="noopener">Cloopen Group Holding Ltd (RAAS US)</a> raised about US$320m at US$16 per ADS, which is above the initial price range.</p>
<div>
<p>Cloopen is a multi-capability cloud-based communications solution provider in China. The company offers communications platform as a services (CPaaS), cloud-based contact center (CC), cloud-based UC&amp;C  solutions to customers.</p>
<p>In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and provide a table with implied valuation at different share price levels.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Our previous coverage:</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloopen-pre-ipo-thematically-favorable-but-not-showing-results-for-now" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47520" rel="noopener">Cloopen (容联.云通讯) Pre-IPO - Thematically Favorable but Not Showing Results for Now</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloopen-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-and-thoughts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47608" rel="noopener">Cloopen (容联.云通讯) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloopen-pre-ipo-forecast-assumptions-and-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47651" rel="noopener">Cloopen (容联.云通讯) Pre-IPO - Forecast, Assumptions, and Valuation</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloopen-pre-ipo-investments-in-cloopen-pax-global-hi-sun-tech-market-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47655" rel="noopener">Cloopen (容联.云通讯) Pre-IPO - Investments in Cloopen + Pax Global &gt; Hi Sun Tech Market Cap</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloopen-ipo-hi-sun-tech-angle-gets-more-attractive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47785" rel="noopener">Cloopen (容联.云通讯) IPO - Hi Sun Tech Angle Gets More Attractive</a> </li>
</ul>
</div>

Cloopen Group Holding Ltd (RAAS US) raised about US$320m at US$16 per ADS, which is above the initial price range.

Cloopen is a multi-capability cloud-based communications solution provider in China. The company offers communications platform as a services (CPaaS), cloud-based contact center (CC), cloud-based UC&amp;C  solutions to customers.
In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and provide a table with implied valuation at different share price levels.


Our previous coverage:




Cloopen (容联.云通讯) Pre-IPO - Thematically Favorable but Not Showing Results for Now 

Cloopen (容联.云通讯) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts 

Cloopen (容联.云通讯) Pre-IPO - Forecast, Assumptions, and Valuation 

Cloopen (容联.云通讯) Pre-IPO - Investments in Cloopen + Pax Global &gt; Hi Sun Tech Market Cap 

Cloopen (容联.云通讯) IPO - Hi Sun Tech Angle Gets More Attractive 



Cloopen (容联.云通讯) IPO Trading - Set for a Strong Debut

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul class="">
<li>Property Developers’ advertising budgets surged in December 2020.</li>
<li>BEKE’s active users increased by 147% YoY in December 2020, compared to 61% YoY for Anjuke.</li>
<li>We believe revenue will rise by 29% in 2021.</li>
<li>We set the upside between 24% and 33% for the end of 2021.</li>
</ul>


Property Developers’ advertising budgets surged in December 2020.
BEKE’s active users increased by 147% YoY in December 2020, compared to 61% YoY for Anjuke.
We believe revenue will rise by 29% in 2021.
We set the upside between 24% and 33% for the end of 2021.


KE (BEKE): Outperform Competitors in Booming Property Market

China

KE Holdings Inc. operates as an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services. The Company offers existing and new home sales, home rentals, home renovation, real estate financial solutions, and other services. KE Holdings conducts businesses in China.

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KE Holdings (BEKE US)

Softbank Group - Vision Fund Ups and Downs: Coupang and Greensill

Vision Fund is having an interesting week: Coupang's IPO priced at a premium (+2.8bn in incremental gains) but portfolio company Greensill has...

Kirk Boodry

Coupang IPO Trading - Most Hit near Term Peak on the First Day - Key Trading/Lock-Up Dates

Coupang, one of the largest product e-commerce players in Korea, raised around US$4.2bn in its US listing via a mix of selling primary and...

Sumeet Singh

Softbank Group: Jitters in a Frothy Market

Tech jitters hit Softbank shares which dropped 5% v -1% for NASDAQ. We think the gap is partially explained by the Coupang IPO and low visibility...

Kirk Boodry

Cloopen (容联.云通讯) IPO Trading - Set for a Strong Debut

Cloopen is a multi-capability cloud-based communications solution provider in China. In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and provide a...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

KE (BEKE): Outperform Competitors in Booming Property Market

Property Developers’ advertising budgets surged in December 2020. BEKE’s active users increased by 147% YoY in December 2020. We set the upside...

Ming Lu

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