Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>300750 CH/1211 HK/ JKS US/601012 CH/688599 CH/002459 CH:China cancels and reduces export tax rebate for certain China's advantageous products, forcing production capacity to be rationalize and export prices to rise.(///////////)</li>
<li>1810 HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US: It is said that Geely Group is preparing to merge its hybrid and pure electric brands under Zeekr（///////）</li>
<li>BEKE US:Mid-November Home Transaction Growth Remains Strong in First-Tier Cities, While Growth in Second- and Third-Tier Cities Slows Down (+)</li>
</ul>


300750 CH/1211 HK/ JKS US/601012 CH/688599 CH/002459 CH:China cancels and reduces export tax rebate for certain China's advantageous products, forcing production capacity to be rationalize and export prices to rise.(///////////)
1810 HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US: It is said that Geely Group is preparing to merge its hybrid and pure electric brands under Zeekr（///////）
BEKE US:Mid-November Home Transaction Growth Remains Strong in First-Tier Cities, While Growth in Second- and Third-Tier Cities Slows Down (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 CH/1211 HK/JKS US/601012 CH/688599 CH/002459CH/1810HK/LI/NIO/XPEV/BEKE/ZTO

<ul>
<li>BEKE US: Government cut property transaction related taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% of transaction costs per unit(+)</li>
<li>1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: EV deliveries in the 45th week of 2024, Xiaomi rebounds, Tesla is strong, NIO and Xpeng are weak （///////////）</li>
<li>ATAT US: Atour Pillow's Double 11 Sales Exceed Expectations, Reaching RMB520mn（+）</li>
</ul>


BEKE US: Government cut property transaction related taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% of transaction costs per unit(+)
1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: EV deliveries in the 45th week of 2024, Xiaomi rebounds, Tesla is strong, NIO and Xpeng are weak （///////////）
ATAT US: Atour Pillow's Double 11 Sales Exceed Expectations, Reaching RMB520mn（+）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/ATAT US/BIDU US

Andy Fu

<ul>
<li>Minister of MOHURD (Ministry of Housing and Urban Development) said on October 16th that MOHURD planned to renovate 1mn more shanty houses via 100% cash exchange by year end;</li>
<li>We estimate this would inject Rmb0.5-1tn to the hands of shanty town residents. If all these money are putt into the property market, it can drive up transaction by 3-7%;</li>
<li>However, property transaction showed existing home sales growth slowed in September and new home sales remained in negative. The real estate market is in dire need of further stimulus.</li>
</ul>


Minister of MOHURD (Ministry of Housing and Urban Development) said on October 16th that MOHURD planned to renovate 1mn more shanty houses via 100% cash exchange by year end;
We estimate this would inject Rmb0.5-1tn to the hands of shanty town residents. If all these money are putt into the property market, it can drive up transaction by 3-7%;
However, property transaction showed existing home sales growth slowed in September and new home sales remained in negative. The real estate market is in dire need of further stimulus.


<ul>
<li>It has become evident that Chinese economy needs stimulus. But why is it not happening? The latest by NDRC and MOF suggests US rate and presidential election are the keys;</li>
<li>What has come forward in the forms of local government debt swap and bank reserve injection is similar to fueling a liquid-fueled missile. Once it starts, it can't roll back;</li>
<li>The biggest swing factor from US presidential election is the Trump Tariff, which can cut China's GDP growth by half. The fueling hopefully can handle impact of such magnitude.</li>
</ul>


It has become evident that Chinese economy needs stimulus. But why is it not happening? The latest by NDRC and MOF suggests US rate and presidential election are the keys;
What has come forward in the forms of local government debt swap and bank reserve injection is similar to fueling a liquid-fueled missile. Once it starts, it can't roll back;
The biggest swing factor from US presidential election is the Trump Tariff, which can cut China's GDP growth by half. The fueling hopefully can handle impact of such magnitude.


What Is Chinese Government Waiting for to Stimulate Its Economy?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We update our sector investment views for the next six months post earnings as follows: 1) Companies with solid fundamentals and high revenue and profit growth visibility; 2) sustained profitability and willingness to lift shareholder returns; and 3) a sizeable TAM for new initiatives and business explorations likely to generate a decent ROIC.</li><li>We believe the market will continue to allocate to such names and value them fairly.</li><li>Taking into account 2Q results and recent stock performances, we find our previous view has been testified: better-than-expected earnings are not enough to drive a share rally, but better-than-expected 3Q/full-year outlook and enhanced shareholder return measures could provide key support. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We update our sector investment views for the next six months post earnings as follows: 1) Companies with solid fundamentals and high revenue and profit growth visibility; 2) sustained profitability and willingness to lift shareholder returns; and 3) a sizeable TAM for new initiatives and business explorations likely to generate a decent ROIC.We believe the market will continue to allocate to such names and value them fairly.Taking into account 2Q results and recent stock performances, we find our previous view has been testified: better-than-expected earnings are not enough to drive a share rally, but better-than-expected 3Q/full-year outlook and enhanced shareholder return measures could provide key support. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Internet - 2Q24 Recap & Stock-Picking Ideas: Seeking Certainty

China

KE Holdings Inc. operates as an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services. The Company offers existing and new home sales, home rentals, home renovation, real estate financial solutions, and other services. KE Holdings conducts businesses in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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P/E	0.00
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KE Holdings (BEKE US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 CH/1211 HK/JKS US/601012 CH/688599 CH/002459CH/1810HK/LI/NIO/XPEV/BEKE/ZTO

China cancels export tax rebate, Geely Group to merge electric brands, home transaction growth strong in first-tier cities.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/ATAT US/BIDU US

Government in BEKE US cuts property transaction taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% per unit; EV deliveries mixed in 45th week, Atour Pillow's Double 11 sales...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Here Is a Trillion Rmb Stimulus

MOHURD planned urban village renovations with monetized resettlement valued at RMB500bn-RMB1tn, could drive up property transaction value by 3%...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

What Is Chinese Government Waiting for to Stimulate Its Economy?

Chinese economy needs stimulus but it's not happening due to US rate and election uncertainties. Debt swap and reserve injection are getting...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Internet - 2Q24 Recap & Stock-Picking Ideas: Seeking Certainty

We update our sector investment views for the next six months post earnings as follows: 1) Companies with solid fundamentals and high revenue and...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 CH/1211 HK/JKS US/601012 CH/688599 CH/002459CH/1810HK/LI/NIO/XPEV/BEKE/ZTO

​China cancels export tax rebate, Geely Group to merge electric brands, home transaction growth strong in first-tier cities.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/ATAT US/BIDU US

​Government in BEKE US cuts property transaction taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% per unit; EV deliveries mixed in 45th week, Atour Pillow's Double 11 sales...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Here Is a Trillion Rmb Stimulus

​MOHURD planned urban village renovations with monetized resettlement valued at RMB500bn-RMB1tn, could drive up property transaction value by 3%...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

What Is Chinese Government Waiting for to Stimulate Its Economy?

​Chinese economy needs stimulus but it's not happening due to US rate and election uncertainties. Debt swap and reserve injection are getting...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Internet - 2Q24 Recap & Stock-Picking Ideas: Seeking Certainty

We update our sector investment views for the next six months post earnings as follows: 1) Companies with solid fundamentals and high revenue and...

CMB International

China cancels export tax rebate, Geely Group to merge electric brands, home transaction growth strong in first-tier cities.

Government in BEKE US cuts property transaction taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% per unit; EV deliveries mixed in 45th week, Atour Pillow's Double 11 sales...

MOHURD planned urban village renovations with monetized resettlement valued at RMB500bn-RMB1tn, could drive up property transaction value by 3%...

Chinese economy needs stimulus but it's not happening due to US rate and election uncertainties. Debt swap and reserve injection are getting...