Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> share price has increased but not run ahead of its fundamentals.</li>
<li>Weak Yen, COVID rebound, friendlier visa policy by the Japanese government, and the potential for more Chinese tourists visiting Japan are tailwinds for Keisei.</li>
<li>Valuation may look expensive, but with the high growth rate, investors should consider to use PEG rather than PER or PBR.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) share price has increased but not run ahead of its fundamentals.
Weak Yen, COVID rebound, friendlier visa policy by the Japanese government, and the potential for more Chinese tourists visiting Japan are tailwinds for Keisei.
Valuation may look expensive, but with the high growth rate, investors should consider to use PEG rather than PER or PBR.


Keisei Electric Rail (9009): Can Be Higher

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Activist investor, Elliott Management has acquired over a 2% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a> and is urging it to sell its 6% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Elliott appears to have identified the path of least resistance, as Mitsui Fudosan had already indicated a willingness to sell its Oriental Land shares last year.</li>
<li>If Elliott's campaign proves successful, it will inadvertently benefit Palliser, which is currently challenging <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> with a similar proposal.</li>
</ul>


Activist investor, Elliott Management has acquired over a 2% stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and is urging it to sell its 6% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).
Elliott appears to have identified the path of least resistance, as Mitsui Fudosan had already indicated a willingness to sell its Oriental Land shares last year.
If Elliott's campaign proves successful, it will inadvertently benefit Palliser, which is currently challenging Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) with a similar proposal.


Oriental Land: A Storm Brewing from Activist Coalition

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The FT carries an article this AM saying Elliott Management have built a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a> and has asked it to undertake measures to increase ROE.</li>
<li>Measures requested apparently include a very large buyback and a demand the company sell down its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>. The <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ab5039ec-b135-4043-8645-c1b2f68f2ba0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> is worth reading.  </li>
<li>Shares are up sharply on this news. The fund was in the news last year about this time regarding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-nippon-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19388:1" rel="noopener">Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP)</a>. I'd expect more noise to come. </li>
</ul>


The FT carries an article this AM saying Elliott Management have built a stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and has asked it to undertake measures to increase ROE.
Measures requested apparently include a very large buyback and a demand the company sell down its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP). The article is worth reading.  
Shares are up sharply on this news. The fund was in the news last year about this time regarding Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP). I'd expect more noise to come. 


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activist Elliott Takes on Mitsui Fudosan (8801)

Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>In the long run, making Oriental Land, which is more profitable, a consolidated subsidiary through TOB would contribute to expanding Keisei's corporate value.</li>
<li>Keisei's foreign shareholder ratio is 27.4%. It seems premature for the rotating president to change at once the company's tradition of maintaining 40-year relationship with Oriental Land as an affiliate.</li>
<li>Keisei should explain how it will develop its relationship with affiliate to increase corporate value, and what its business strategy would be if it were to sell its shareholding instead.</li>
</ul>


In the long run, making Oriental Land, which is more profitable, a consolidated subsidiary through TOB would contribute to expanding Keisei's corporate value.
Keisei's foreign shareholder ratio is 27.4%. It seems premature for the rotating president to change at once the company's tradition of maintaining 40-year relationship with Oriental Land as an affiliate.
Keisei should explain how it will develop its relationship with affiliate to increase corporate value, and what its business strategy would be if it were to sell its shareholding instead.


The Goose that Takes Out the Golden Egg Dies. Manager Should Explain How the Goose Can Grow Bigger

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s FQ2 earnings, released on October-31st, surpassed revenue and OP expectations, yet the company revised down its revenue and OP guidance by ¥8.8bn and ¥200m.</li>
<li>Despite this, the share price has surged over 10% in recent days, likely influenced by activist investor Palliser Capital's interest and a significant 30% increase in annual dividend guidance.</li>
<li>However, during earnings, the company remained silent about the activist investor's proposal to reduce its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> ownership below 15%.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s FQ2 earnings, released on October-31st, surpassed revenue and OP expectations, yet the company revised down its revenue and OP guidance by ¥8.8bn and ¥200m.
Despite this, the share price has surged over 10% in recent days, likely influenced by activist investor Palliser Capital's interest and a significant 30% increase in annual dividend guidance.
However, during earnings, the company remained silent about the activist investor's proposal to reduce its Oriental Land (4661 JP) ownership below 15%.


Keisei Electric: Results Unimpressive, Yet Investor Activism Appeal Remains

Japan

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Metropolitan Tokyo and Chiba prefecture areas.  The Company operates department and supermarket stores, hotels, travel agents, movie theater and restaurants, and sells, leases, and maintains real estate.  Keisei Electric is a shareholder of Oriental Land Co., Ltd. which operates Tokyo Disneyland.

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Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)

Keisei Electric Rail (9009): Can Be Higher

Keisei Electric Railway Co's share price is rising in line with positive fundamentals, driven by a weak Yen, COVID rebound, and potential increase...

Henry Soediarko

Oriental Land: A Storm Brewing from Activist Coalition

Activist investor Elliott Management urges Mitsui Fudosan to sell its stake in Oriental Land, potentially benefiting Palliser in its challenge...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Activist Elliott Takes on Mitsui Fudosan (8801)

An FT article says Elliott bought 2.5+% of Mitsui Fudosan this past year. Elliott want them to sell the Oriental Land stake, and buy back ¥1trln of...

Travis Lundy

The Goose that Takes Out the Golden Egg Dies. Manager Should Explain How the Goose Can Grow Bigger

I would like to discuss the issues on the November 8 Nikkei article, "Activist Investors Don't Miss the 'Twist': British Fund Attacks Keisei...

Metrical Inc

Keisei Electric: Results Unimpressive, Yet Investor Activism Appeal Remains

Keisei Electric Railway's earnings beat expectations but revised down guidance, yet the stock price rose due to activist investor interest and...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Keisei Electric Rail (9009): Can Be Higher

​Keisei Electric Railway Co's share price is rising in line with positive fundamentals, driven by a weak Yen, COVID rebound, and potential increase...

Henry Soediarko

Oriental Land: A Storm Brewing from Activist Coalition

​Activist investor Elliott Management urges Mitsui Fudosan to sell its stake in Oriental Land, potentially benefiting Palliser in its challenge...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Activist Elliott Takes on Mitsui Fudosan (8801)

An FT article says Elliott bought 2.5+% of Mitsui Fudosan this past year. Elliott want them to sell the Oriental Land stake, and buy back ¥1trln of...

Travis Lundy

The Goose that Takes Out the Golden Egg Dies. Manager Should Explain How the Goose Can Grow Bigger

I would like to discuss the issues on the November 8 Nikkei article, "Activist Investors Don't Miss the 'Twist': British Fund Attacks Keisei...

Metrical Inc

Keisei Electric: Results Unimpressive, Yet Investor Activism Appeal Remains

​Keisei Electric Railway's earnings beat expectations but revised down guidance, yet the stock price rose due to activist investor interest and...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric Railway Co's share price is rising in line with positive fundamentals, driven by a weak Yen, COVID rebound, and potential increase...

Activist investor Elliott Management urges Mitsui Fudosan to sell its stake in Oriental Land, potentially benefiting Palliser in its challenge...

Keisei Electric Railway's earnings beat expectations but revised down guidance, yet the stock price rose due to activist investor interest and...