Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Just as we suspected earlier in the year, there is now talk of an impending investor activism campaign targeting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The activist is Palliser Capital, a multi-strategy fund based in London and run by former employees of Elliott Management, a company well-known for its activist campaigns in Japan.</li>
<li>Their proposal is simple and straightforward, requesting for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric's Oriental Land holding.</li>
</ul>


Just as we suspected earlier in the year, there is now talk of an impending investor activism campaign targeting Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP).
The activist is Palliser Capital, a multi-strategy fund based in London and run by former employees of Elliott Management, a company well-known for its activist campaigns in Japan.
Their proposal is simple and straightforward, requesting for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric's Oriental Land holding.


Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The moment of truth is here, the Chinese are finally coming back to Japan. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> is one of the biggest beneficiaries of increased tourist arrivals in Japan. </li>
<li>It is trading at 0.04 PEG, a very low valuation considering its potential for producing large growth rate. </li>
</ul>


The moment of truth is here, the Chinese are finally coming back to Japan. 

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is one of the biggest beneficiaries of increased tourist arrivals in Japan. 
It is trading at 0.04 PEG, a very low valuation considering its potential for producing large growth rate. 


Keisei Electric (9009): The Chinese Are Back.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric (9009 JP)</a>'s valuation has deviated from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>'s since the proposed expansion of Tokyo Disney Sea, Fantasy Springs. That bifurcation should now reverse. </li>
<li>Don't expect a serious fight in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>'s hostile for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takisawa-machine-tool-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7344:1" rel="noopener">Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP)</a>.  Fanuc could counter. It is possible others could step up but we wouldn't know. </li>
<li>On the back of the news to spin off and list some logistics ops, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a> is probably a buy on weakness vs Stub Ops Peers. </li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric (9009 JP)'s valuation has deviated from Oriental Land (4661 JP)'s since the proposed expansion of Tokyo Disney Sea, Fantasy Springs. That bifurcation should now reverse. 
Don't expect a serious fight in Nidec (6594 JP)'s hostile for Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP).  Fanuc could counter. It is possible others could step up but we wouldn't know. 
On the back of the news to spin off and list some logistics ops, Shenzhen International (152 HK) is probably a buy on weakness vs Stub Ops Peers. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/​Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/E'Way, HMM

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the proposed Tokyo Disney Sea expansion in 2015, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s price perfromance has significantly diverged from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>'s price performance.</li>
<li>The valuation disparity may result from the Disney Sea expansion's impact, possibly due to Keisei Electric's value-oriented investor base.</li>
<li>Fantasy Springs' opening could resolve the valuation distortion, leading to potential rewards in a Long Keisei Electric and Short Oriental Land trade.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the proposed Tokyo Disney Sea expansion in 2015, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s price perfromance has significantly diverged from Oriental Land (4661 JP)'s price performance.
The valuation disparity may result from the Disney Sea expansion's impact, possibly due to Keisei Electric's value-oriented investor base.
Fantasy Springs' opening could resolve the valuation distortion, leading to potential rewards in a Long Keisei Electric and Short Oriental Land trade.


Keisei Electric: Valuation Distortion Set to Unravel with Fantasy Springs' Opening in Spring 2024

<ul>
<li>YTD performance of 61% has been stellar and index beating but the concern remains whether there will be more left. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> April 23 ridership and revenue growth provide momentum despite the still non-existence arrival of Chinese tourists. </li>
<li>Chinese tourists' arrival in 2H 23 may be slow but chances are that they will arrive in Japan and will boost both ridership and revenue.</li>
</ul>


YTD performance of 61% has been stellar and index beating but the concern remains whether there will be more left. 

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) April 23 ridership and revenue growth provide momentum despite the still non-existence arrival of Chinese tourists. 
Chinese tourists' arrival in 2H 23 may be slow but chances are that they will arrive in Japan and will boost both ridership and revenue.


Keisei Electric (9009): Ridership and Price Hike

Japan

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Metropolitan Tokyo and Chiba prefecture areas.  The Company operates department and supermarket stores, hotels, travel agents, movie theater and restaurants, and sells, leases, and maintains real estate.  Keisei Electric is a shareholder of Oriental Land Co., Ltd. which operates Tokyo Disneyland.

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Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)

Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected

Palliser Capital is expected to lead an investor activism campaign targeting Keisei Electric, requesting a 35% reduction in Keisei's Oriental Land...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric (9009): The Chinese Are Back.

The moment of truth is here, the Chinese are finally coming back to Japan. Keisei is one of the biggest beneficiaries of increased tourism in Japan.

Henry Soediarko

Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/E'Way, HMM

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Keisei Electric: Valuation Distortion Set to Unravel with Fantasy Springs' Opening in Spring 2024

Keisei Electric's valuation has shown a notable deviation from Oriental Land's price performance, particularly since the announcement of the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric (9009): Ridership and Price Hike

Keisei Electric's share price has been on a tear, even though the major driver for tourism, Chinese tourists, have not arrived in Japan.

Henry Soediarko

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected

​Palliser Capital is expected to lead an investor activism campaign targeting Keisei Electric, requesting a 35% reduction in Keisei's Oriental Land...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric (9009): The Chinese Are Back.

The moment of truth is here, the Chinese are finally coming back to Japan. Keisei is one of the biggest beneficiaries of increased tourism in Japan.

Henry Soediarko

Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/​Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/E'Way, HMM

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Keisei Electric: Valuation Distortion Set to Unravel with Fantasy Springs' Opening in Spring 2024

Keisei Electric's valuation has shown a notable deviation from Oriental Land's price performance, particularly since the announcement of the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric (9009): Ridership and Price Hike

Keisei Electric's share price has been on a tear, even though the major driver for tourism, Chinese tourists, have not arrived in Japan.

Henry Soediarko

Palliser Capital is expected to lead an investor activism campaign targeting Keisei Electric, requesting a 35% reduction in Keisei's Oriental Land...

Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/E'Way, HMM