HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Junshi’s fatal flaw is not that it is still suffering loss, or that its founders have no medical background, but that the Company is very short of money.</li>
<li>Considering the gloomy prospects of etesevimab/VV116, uncertainties in toripalimab and other late-stage candidates, we remain conservative about Junshi’s commercialization outlook. Junshi's higher valuation than Innovent is not justified.</li>
<li>Together with unfriendly macro environment, we don’t think heavy investment in R&amp;D/MRCT/commercial development could bring high return as expected.Investors need to be rational about Junshi's RMB4 billion private placement plan.</li>
</ul>


Junshi’s fatal flaw is not that it is still suffering loss, or that its founders have no medical background, but that the Company is very short of money.
Considering the gloomy prospects of etesevimab/VV116, uncertainties in toripalimab and other late-stage candidates, we remain conservative about Junshi’s commercialization outlook. Junshi's higher valuation than Innovent is not justified.
Together with unfriendly macro environment, we don’t think heavy investment in R&amp;D/MRCT/commercial development could bring high return as expected.Investors need to be rational about Junshi's RMB4 billion private placement plan.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Placement- Junshi Is Having a Hard Time, with Lower than Expected Returns

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Commercialization prospects of domestic autoimmune disease market is highly uncertain. Related drugs’ sales could be very limited in short term. Overseas market space is much larger, so internationalization is inevitable.</li>
<li>Our forecast on RemeGen’s total sales is just RMB3.5-4 billion. The deal with Seagen still puzzles us, which is the key to determine how far RemeGen can go in internationalization.</li>
<li>Keymed is like "a younger RemeGen" due to the differentiation strategy of pipeline layout. However, Keymed’s internationalization progress is much weaker, with higher risks and uncertainties than RemeGen.</li>
</ul>


Commercialization prospects of domestic autoimmune disease market is highly uncertain. Related drugs’ sales could be very limited in short term. Overseas market space is much larger, so internationalization is inevitable.
Our forecast on RemeGen’s total sales is just RMB3.5-4 billion. The deal with Seagen still puzzles us, which is the key to determine how far RemeGen can go in internationalization.
Keymed is like "a younger RemeGen" due to the differentiation strategy of pipeline layout. However, Keymed’s internationalization progress is much weaker, with higher risks and uncertainties than RemeGen.


Remegen (9995HK) Vs Keymed Biosciences (2162HK)-Deep Dive the Logic & Internationalization Prospects

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Shanghai Municipal Medical Insurance Bureau issued a policy that TAVR consumables would be reimbursed according to surgery performance, breaking the bottleneck of low demand due to the expensive TAVR surgery.</li>
<li>The COVID nucleic acid testing industry faces the problem of exit, because it is very difficult to find a corresponding scale of replacement business for these huge capacity accumulated.</li>
<li>In terms of the internationalization prospects of China biotech companies, we prefer to pick RemeGen. The same logic also applies to Keymed.</li>
</ul>


Shanghai Municipal Medical Insurance Bureau issued a policy that TAVR consumables would be reimbursed according to surgery performance, breaking the bottleneck of low demand due to the expensive TAVR surgery.
The COVID nucleic acid testing industry faces the problem of exit, because it is very difficult to find a corresponding scale of replacement business for these huge capacity accumulated.
In terms of the internationalization prospects of China biotech companies, we prefer to pick RemeGen. The same logic also applies to Keymed.


China Healthcare Weekly (May.27) - New TAVR Policy, Exiting Issue of COVID Testing, RemeGen/Keymed

<ul>
<li>Recently, the VBP results of Chinese patent medicine led by Guangdong Alliance were released.Investors had better confirm whether their products have been included in VBP before investing in related stocks.</li>
<li>The reason why domestic pharmaceutical companies lag behind foreign companies is not only the innovation capability or clinical speed, but also the ability to actively identify innovation and thinking mode.</li>
<li>There would be quite a few consolidations or acquisitions of Biotech at low prices. There could also be some delisting of Biotech in secondary market in the coming year.</li>
</ul>


Recently, the VBP results of Chinese patent medicine led by Guangdong Alliance were released.Investors had better confirm whether their products have been included in VBP before investing in related stocks.
The reason why domestic pharmaceutical companies lag behind foreign companies is not only the innovation capability or clinical speed, but also the ability to actively identify innovation and thinking mode.
There would be quite a few consolidations or acquisitions of Biotech at low prices. There could also be some delisting of Biotech in secondary market in the coming year.


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.22) - TCM VBP Results, R&D Thinking Mode, Biotech Delisting

<ul>
<li>Last week, the focus of the 2022 Volume-Based Purchase (VBP) was finalized. We summarized the key points and major VBP projects to be promoted this year.</li>
<li>For IVD companies that seize the golden COVID-19 testing opportunity, they have already accumulated large amount of cash flow. It means M&amp;A opportunities but also bubbles in the industry. </li>
<li>The market value of a lot of medical device companies in HKEX has already been very small. Is the market overly pessimistic?</li>
</ul>


Last week, the focus of the 2022 Volume-Based Purchase (VBP) was finalized. We summarized the key points and major VBP projects to be promoted this year.
For IVD companies that seize the golden COVID-19 testing opportunity, they have already accumulated large amount of cash flow. It means M&amp;A opportunities but also bubbles in the industry. 
The market value of a lot of medical device companies in HKEX has already been very small. Is the market overly pessimistic?


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.15)- 2022 VBP Focus, Post-COVID IVD Outlook, Undervalued Medical Device

Hong Kong

Keymed Biosciences Inc. operates a biotechnology company. The Company focus on the in-house discovery and development of innovative biological therapies. Keymed Biosciences provides services in China.

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Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Placement- Junshi Is Having a Hard Time, with Lower than Expected Returns

Junshi's Achilles heel is lack of cash and is in difficult time. PD-1/COVID-19 products can't relieve cashflow pressure.The uncertain outlook/macro...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Remegen (9995HK) Vs Keymed Biosciences (2162HK)-Deep Dive the Logic & Internationalization Prospects

Commercialization prospects of China autoimmune disease market are lower than expected. We analyzed RemeGen/Keymed's peak sales,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (May.27) - New TAVR Policy, Exiting Issue of COVID Testing, RemeGen/Keymed

New TAVR policy will break the low demand bottleneck due to high cost; COVID testing industry faces the problem of exit; Remegen/Keymed may have...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.22) - TCM VBP Results, R&D Thinking Mode, Biotech Delisting

Guangdong Alliance released the VBP results of TCM; The ability to identify innovation and the thinking mode is more important for Pharma; There...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.15)- 2022 VBP Focus, Post-COVID IVD Outlook, Undervalued Medical Device

The focus of 2022 VBP was finalized. In post-COVID era, how would cash-rich IVD companies with find new growth point?After continuous pullback,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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