HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Retail pharmacies experienced performance decline in April and May. Due to negative policies, retail pharmacies will experience industry clearance. Therefore, we do not recommend investors to bottom-fish related stocks now.</li>
<li>There is a logic to biotech's performance from 2023 to present.The clearer the path of sustainable development, the better the stock price performance. They can be divided into three types.</li>
<li>YSB faces big risks and the outlook is not optimistic. If the final valuation of the Company is lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22928:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Pharmaceutical</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-pharmaceuticals-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:228:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Pharmaceuticals</a>, we wouldn't be too surprised.</li>
</ul>


Retail pharmacies experienced performance decline in April and May. Due to negative policies, retail pharmacies will experience industry clearance. Therefore, we do not recommend investors to bottom-fish related stocks now.
There is a logic to biotech's performance from 2023 to present.The clearer the path of sustainable development, the better the stock price performance. They can be divided into three types.
YSB faces big risks and the outlook is not optimistic. If the final valuation of the Company is lower than China Resources Pharmaceutical and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, we wouldn't be too surprised.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy's Dilemma, Logic to Biotech's Stock Price,YSB's Risk

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical (6990 HK)

<ul>
<li>Since IPO, stock price of Kelun-Biotech has performed quite well. Then, the Company's valuation fluctuated. Investors seem not excited about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK)</a>’s 23H1 performance.</li>
<li>We won’t expect too much on A166 in such a difficult competitive landscape.Commercialization of SKB264 is also challenging.It's difficult to make up the story after A166/SKB264 begin to generate revenue.</li>
<li>After out-licensing all valuable/core assets to Merck, together with the departure of core R&amp;D personnel, Kelun-Biotech has been “hollowed out”.So, Kelun-Biotech's value lies in short-term trade rather than long-term hold.</li>
</ul>


Since IPO, stock price of Kelun-Biotech has performed quite well. Then, the Company's valuation fluctuated. Investors seem not excited about Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK)’s 23H1 performance.
We won’t expect too much on A166 in such a difficult competitive landscape.Commercialization of SKB264 is also challenging.It's difficult to make up the story after A166/SKB264 begin to generate revenue.
After out-licensing all valuable/core assets to Merck, together with the departure of core R&amp;D personnel, Kelun-Biotech has been “hollowed out”.So, Kelun-Biotech's value lies in short-term trade rather than long-term hold.


Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) - Once the Products Hit the Market, Good Story May Stop

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>C1Q24 was marked by liquidity crises in innovative drug and medical device, and depressed margin in digital health. We believe this is a buying opportunity;</li>
<li>PD-1 has recovered nicely in C2H23 and exceeded our expectation made for 2023.We forecast 20% YoY growth in 2024.Further,pipeline maturity has led to new drugs in autoimmune and metabolic drugs;</li>
<li>Biosimilar has proven to be part of the solution to deal with low paying ability of Chinese healthcare and denial of access to the high paying US healthcare market. </li>
</ul>


C1Q24 was marked by liquidity crises in innovative drug and medical device, and depressed margin in digital health. We believe this is a buying opportunity;
PD-1 has recovered nicely in C2H23 and exceeded our expectation made for 2023.We forecast 20% YoY growth in 2024.Further,pipeline maturity has led to new drugs in autoimmune and metabolic drugs;
Biosimilar has proven to be part of the solution to deal with low paying ability of Chinese healthcare and denial of access to the high paying US healthcare market. 


[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 26th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 26th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 26th): Tencent

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 19th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 19th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.


China

Keymed Biosciences is a biotechnology company focused on the in-house discovery and development of innovative biological therapies for autoimmune diseases and oncology. Their pipeline includes over 50 programs, with key products like Kangyueda® (Stapokibart, CM310) for atopic dermatitis, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, and seasonal allergic rhinitis. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.

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Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy's Dilemma, Logic to Biotech's Stock Price,YSB's Risk

Retail pharmacies facing industry clearance due to negative policies.Biotech stock performance tied to sustainable development path. YSB faces...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) - Once the Products Hit the Market, Good Story May Stop

Kelun Bio seeks to raise HKD540.5M in net proceeds from Share Placement. The Placing Price is HKD150/share (6.8% discount to Last Traded Price of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

Liquidity crises in healthcare innovation present buying opportunity;PD-1 exceeds expectations with 20%YoY growth forecast for 2024;Biosimilars...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 26th): Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight southbound Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 19th): CCB

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight southbound Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy's Dilemma, Logic to Biotech's Stock Price,YSB's Risk

​Retail pharmacies facing industry clearance due to negative policies.Biotech stock performance tied to sustainable development path. YSB faces...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) - Once the Products Hit the Market, Good Story May Stop

Kelun Bio seeks to raise HKD540.5M in net proceeds from Share Placement. The Placing Price is HKD150/share (6.8% discount to Last Traded Price of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

​Liquidity crises in healthcare innovation present buying opportunity;PD-1 exceeds expectations with 20%YoY growth forecast for 2024;Biosimilars...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 26th): Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight southbound Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 19th): CCB

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight southbound Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Retail pharmacies facing industry clearance due to negative policies.Biotech stock performance tied to sustainable development path. YSB faces...

Liquidity crises in healthcare innovation present buying opportunity;PD-1 exceeds expectations with 20%YoY growth forecast for 2024;Biosimilars...