HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Ganzhou Hemay Pharmaceutical / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Mufemilast will face fierce competition and price reduction due to NRDL negotiation for related indications. For autoimmune disease drugs, overseas market space and ceiling are much higher than in China.</li>
<li>Hemay022’s market space is narrower than pan HER2 inhibitors and HER2 ADC. There is still uncertainty in efficacy/safety profile. Hemay022 will face challenges in terms of commercialization after market launch.</li>
<li>The current valuation logic for innovative drugs in China has changed. Without decent licensing cooperation, Hemay's valuation will be discounted. Valuation of Hemay should be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


Mufemilast will face fierce competition and price reduction due to NRDL negotiation for related indications. For autoimmune disease drugs, overseas market space and ceiling are much higher than in China.
Hemay022’s market space is narrower than pan HER2 inhibitors and HER2 ADC. There is still uncertainty in efficacy/safety profile. Hemay022 will face challenges in terms of commercialization after market launch.
The current valuation logic for innovative drugs in China has changed. Without decent licensing cooperation, Hemay's valuation will be discounted. Valuation of Hemay should be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Ganzhou Hemay Pharmaceutical - The Concerns on the Pipelines

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphamab-oncology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28213:1" rel="noopener">Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK)</a> 's NDA of KN026 (anbenitamab) in combination with chemotherapy for the treatment of patients with HER2+ gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer was accepted by NMPA.</li>
<li>Alphamab has four major products at this moment, one of them commercialized (KN035) and the rest (KN026, JSKN003 and KN046) in the advanced stages of trial or regulatory approval.</li>
<li>In 1H25, company reported an increase of 84% YoY in revenue mainly driven by licensing income. The strong Phase III line up provides a fair bit of revenue visibility.</li>
</ul>



Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK) 's NDA of KN026 (anbenitamab) in combination with chemotherapy for the treatment of patients with HER2+ gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer was accepted by NMPA.
Alphamab has four major products at this moment, one of them commercialized (KN035) and the rest (KN026, JSKN003 and KN046) in the advanced stages of trial or regulatory approval.
In 1H25, company reported an increase of 84% YoY in revenue mainly driven by licensing income. The strong Phase III line up provides a fair bit of revenue visibility.


Alphamab Oncology (9966 HK): Phase III Candidates Hold Opportunity Beyond KN035 (Envafolimab)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The September rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.  </li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$57.55bn (US$7.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> has flipped from a net buy to a net sell following its huge rally yesterday.</li>
</ul>


The September rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.  
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$57.55bn (US$7.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.

Alibaba (9988 HK) has flipped from a net buy to a net sell following its huge rally yesterday.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add and 21 deletions for the Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO Index) at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$1.77bn (US$226m).</li>
<li>The deletes have underperformed the HSHKBIO Index since the start of the year with the gap opening up over the last two months following the announcement of the methodology change.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add and 21 deletions for the Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO Index) at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$1.77bn (US$226m).
The deletes have underperformed the HSHKBIO Index since the start of the year with the gap opening up over the last two months following the announcement of the methodology change.


Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 21 Deletes as Methodology Changes

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng Indexes announces changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a>, HSIII Index, HSHKBIO Index and HSCI Index post market close tomorrow.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across the stocks is estimated to be HK$54.3bn (US$6.9bn) with big impact in a lot of names.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto</a> if added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart</a> if added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics</a> due to a FAF increase.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng Indexes announces changes to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index, HSIII Index, HSHKBIO Index and HSCI Index post market close tomorrow.
The net round-trip trade across the stocks is estimated to be HK$54.3bn (US$6.9bn) with big impact in a lot of names.
The largest inflows will be in Geely Auto if added to the HSTECH, Pop Mart if added to the HSCEI and HSI, and Horizon Robotics due to a FAF increase.


Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Tomorrow; Potential Changes & Updated Flows

China

Keymed Biosciences is a biotechnology company focused on the in-house discovery and development of innovative biological therapies for autoimmune diseases and oncology. Their pipeline includes over 50 programs, with key products like Kangyueda® (Stapokibart, CM310) for atopic dermatitis, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, and seasonal allergic rhinitis. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.

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Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)

Pre-IPO Ganzhou Hemay Pharmaceutical - The Concerns on the Pipelines

Mufemilast, Hemay022 face challenges in commercialization due to uncertainties in R&D, fierce competition. As valuation logic for innovative drugs...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Alphamab Oncology (9966 HK): Phase III Candidates Hold Opportunity Beyond KN035 (Envafolimab)

Alphamab's NDA for KN026 in combo with chemo for HER2+ cancer accepted by NMPA. 1H25 revenue growth driven by licensing income. Robust Phase III...

Tina Banerjee

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)

The Sep rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 21 Deletes as Methodology Changes

There is 1 add and 21 deletes for the HSHKBIO in Sep. Couple of surprises. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.25% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Tomorrow; Potential Changes & Updated Flows

Hang Seng announces after market close on Friday. The net round-trip trade across the stocks is estimated at HK$54.3bn. There is positioning in the...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Ganzhou Hemay Pharmaceutical - The Concerns on the Pipelines

​Mufemilast, Hemay022 face challenges in commercialization due to uncertainties in R&D, fierce competition. As valuation logic for innovative drugs...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Alphamab Oncology (9966 HK): Phase III Candidates Hold Opportunity Beyond KN035 (Envafolimab)

​Alphamab's NDA for KN026 in combo with chemo for HER2+ cancer accepted by NMPA. 1H25 revenue growth driven by licensing income. Robust Phase III...

Tina Banerjee

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)

The Sep rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 21 Deletes as Methodology Changes

There is 1 add and 21 deletes for the HSHKBIO in Sep. Couple of surprises. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.25% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Tomorrow; Potential Changes & Updated Flows

Hang Seng announces after market close on Friday. The net round-trip trade across the stocks is estimated at HK$54.3bn. There is positioning in the...

Brian Freitas

Mufemilast, Hemay022 face challenges in commercialization due to uncertainties in R&D, fierce competition. As valuation logic for innovative drugs...

Alphamab's NDA for KN026 in combo with chemo for HER2+ cancer accepted by NMPA. 1H25 revenue growth driven by licensing income. Robust Phase III...