HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The GLP-1 market has officially transitioned from a duopoly to a state where Tirzepatide is eating away at Semaglutide's market share, which should be a highly valued advance signal.</li>
<li>WuXi Bio’s Placing price of HK$26.51-26.88/share is expansive if based on 2025 forecast.Obviously, WuXi Bio hopes to leverage the positive market sentiment to complete the placement at high share price</li>
<li>Keymed plans to raise about HK$854million through a top-up placement. However, reasonable valuation for Keymed is RMB5-10 billion. In other words, the Placing Price of HK$45.48 per Share is expensive.</li>
</ul>


The GLP-1 market has officially transitioned from a duopoly to a state where Tirzepatide is eating away at Semaglutide's market share, which should be a highly valued advance signal.
WuXi Bio’s Placing price of HK$26.51-26.88/share is expansive if based on 2025 forecast.Obviously, WuXi Bio hopes to leverage the positive market sentiment to complete the placement at high share price
Keymed plans to raise about HK$854million through a top-up placement. However, reasonable valuation for Keymed is RMB5-10 billion. In other words, the Placing Price of HK$45.48 per Share is expensive.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.15) - Outlook of GLP-1 Market, WuXi Bio’s Placement, Keymed's Placement

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Keymed Biosciences / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keymed-biosciences-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33011:1" rel="noopener">Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)</a>, along with its controlling shareholder, is looking to raise around US$112m to fund its R&amp;D requirements.</li>
<li>Keymed Biosciences, a China-based biotech company which focuses on therapeutic areas of autoimmune and oncology</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK), along with its controlling shareholder, is looking to raise around US$112m to fund its R&amp;D requirements.
Keymed Biosciences, a China-based biotech company which focuses on therapeutic areas of autoimmune and oncology
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Keymed Bioscience Placement - Track Record Isn’t Great but Recent Performance Has Been Better

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Anhui’s new VBP included OTC TCM for the first time, which poses a big challenge to the pricing autonomy of CR Sanjiu. This makes Sanjiu's acquisition of Tasly more important/urgent. </li>
<li>Novo Nordisk's performance has raised concerns. The capacity bottleneck for weight-loss drugs seems resolved. Could this signal that the market for weight-loss drugs is reaching its peak?</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keymed-biosciences-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33011:1" rel="noopener">Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)</a>’s CM310 will miss this year’s NRDL negotiations, putting the company at a disadvantage. Considering the competitive landscape, we are concerned about Keymed’s performance.</li>
</ul>


Anhui’s new VBP included OTC TCM for the first time, which poses a big challenge to the pricing autonomy of CR Sanjiu. This makes Sanjiu's acquisition of Tasly more important/urgent. 
Novo Nordisk's performance has raised concerns. The capacity bottleneck for weight-loss drugs seems resolved. Could this signal that the market for weight-loss drugs is reaching its peak?

Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)’s CM310 will miss this year’s NRDL negotiations, putting the company at a disadvantage. Considering the competitive landscape, we are concerned about Keymed’s performance.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.22) - CR Sanjiu's Trouble, Weight-Loss Drug Market Saturation, Keymed

Event-Driven

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) A / Event-Driven

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) A (600129 CH)

<ul>
<li>TCM formula granules VBP would cause some disturbance to related enterprises’ performance, but the substitution of TCM formula granules for TCM decoction pieces is a trend, indicating long-term optimistic growth.</li>
<li>Keymed’s CM310 would probably miss the NRDL negotiation this year, which will put the Company in passive situation. Based on competitive landscape, we are worried about the performance of Keymed.</li>
<li>Unsatisfactory performance of Taiji’s shares is related to concerns on China TCM’s privatization/24H1 results.However, even without the integration with China TCM, Taiji's market value should be more than RMB20 billion.</li>
</ul>


TCM formula granules VBP would cause some disturbance to related enterprises’ performance, but the substitution of TCM formula granules for TCM decoction pieces is a trend, indicating long-term optimistic growth.
Keymed’s CM310 would probably miss the NRDL negotiation this year, which will put the Company in passive situation. Based on competitive landscape, we are worried about the performance of Keymed.
Unsatisfactory performance of Taiji’s shares is related to concerns on China TCM’s privatization/24H1 results.However, even without the integration with China TCM, Taiji's market value should be more than RMB20 billion.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4)- Taiji Group & China TCM, TCM Formula Granules VBP, Keymed's Trouble

China Resources Medical Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

China Resources Medical Holdings (1515 HK)

<ul>
<li>Investors should be aware of the increasing prices of TCM raw materials, which could lead to fluctuations in profit margins of TCM companies. Investors should prepare for these potential impacts.</li>
<li>After years of “fast-follow”, we’ve finally seen products from Chinese pharmaceutical companies stand at the center of the stage for the first time in the new generation of ADC.</li>
<li>China Resources Medical's profitability outlook is not promising due to issues within the Chinese healthcare system. The bottom line is P/B above 1 and P/E above 10x.</li>
</ul>


Investors should be aware of the increasing prices of TCM raw materials, which could lead to fluctuations in profit margins of TCM companies. Investors should prepare for these potential impacts.
After years of “fast-follow”, we’ve finally seen products from Chinese pharmaceutical companies stand at the center of the stage for the first time in the new generation of ADC.
China Resources Medical's profitability outlook is not promising due to issues within the Chinese healthcare system. The bottom line is P/B above 1 and P/E above 10x.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.30) - TCM Companies Witness Soaring Costs, Rising Stars in ADC, 1515.HK

China

Keymed Biosciences is a biotechnology company focused on the in-house discovery and development of innovative biological therapies for autoimmune diseases and oncology. Their pipeline includes over 50 programs, with key products like Kangyueda® (Stapokibart, CM310) for atopic dermatitis, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, and seasonal allergic rhinitis. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.

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Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.15) - Outlook of GLP-1 Market, WuXi Bio’s Placement, Keymed's Placement

GLP-1 market is approaching ceiling. WuXi Bio’s Placing price of HK$26.51-26.88 is expensive based on our forecast. Keymed's reasonable valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Keymed Bioscience Placement - Track Record Isn’t Great but Recent Performance Has Been Better

Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK), along with its controlling shareholder, is looking to raise around US$112m to fund its R&D requirements.

Sumeet Singh

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.22) - CR Sanjiu's Trouble, Weight-Loss Drug Market Saturation, Keymed

Anhui's VBP includes OTC TCM, challenging CR Sanjiu's pricing autonomy. There are concerns about weight-loss drug market saturation. CM310 missing...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4)- Taiji Group & China TCM, TCM Formula Granules VBP, Keymed's Trouble

Substitution of TCM formula granules for decoction pieces is a trend despite the VBP. Keymed will face difficulties without NRDL negotiation....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.30) - TCM Companies Witness Soaring Costs, Rising Stars in ADC, 1515.HK

Investors should watch for rising TCM raw material prices. Chinese pharmaceutical companies are rising in ADC.Caution with China Resources...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.15) - Outlook of GLP-1 Market, WuXi Bio’s Placement, Keymed's Placement

GLP-1 market is approaching ceiling. WuXi Bio’s Placing price of HK$26.51-26.88 is expensive based on our forecast. Keymed's reasonable valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Keymed Bioscience Placement - Track Record Isn’t Great but Recent Performance Has Been Better

Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK), along with its controlling shareholder, is looking to raise around US$112m to fund its R&D requirements.

Sumeet Singh

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.22) - CR Sanjiu's Trouble, Weight-Loss Drug Market Saturation, Keymed

​Anhui's VBP includes OTC TCM, challenging CR Sanjiu's pricing autonomy. There are concerns about weight-loss drug market saturation. CM310 missing...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4)- Taiji Group & China TCM, TCM Formula Granules VBP, Keymed's Trouble

​Substitution of TCM formula granules for decoction pieces is a trend despite the VBP. Keymed will face difficulties without NRDL negotiation....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.30) - TCM Companies Witness Soaring Costs, Rising Stars in ADC, 1515.HK

​Investors should watch for rising TCM raw material prices. Chinese pharmaceutical companies are rising in ADC.Caution with China Resources...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Anhui's VBP includes OTC TCM, challenging CR Sanjiu's pricing autonomy. There are concerns about weight-loss drug market saturation. CM310 missing...

Substitution of TCM formula granules for decoction pieces is a trend despite the VBP. Keymed will face difficulties without NRDL negotiation....

Investors should watch for rising TCM raw material prices. Chinese pharmaceutical companies are rising in ADC.Caution with China Resources...