Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH index is trading higher on higher breadth and momentum in January, up 6% so far.  Analysts project an upside of 23% over 12 months.</li>
<li>China's semiconductor sector is advancing this year from AI enthusiasm and accelerated localization in the chip industry.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> shares have benefited from this trend.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a> benefits from China's announcement that it will subsidize more consumer products, including smartphones and new vehicles.
</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH index is trading higher on higher breadth and momentum in January, up 6% so far.  Analysts project an upside of 23% over 12 months.
China's semiconductor sector is advancing this year from AI enthusiasm and accelerated localization in the chip industry.  Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) shares have benefited from this trend.

Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) benefits from China's announcement that it will subsidize more consumer products, including smartphones and new vehicles.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 25)

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Information technology very strong with AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l and Byd Elec all posting &gt; 10% weekly gains.</li>
<li>Gains were positive with helpful seasonals but not as widespread as last week with fewer singles stocks and Sectors participating in the rally.</li>
<li>China Vanke has big increase in option trading, in particular Calls, with implied vols also rising. </li>
</ul>


Information technology very strong with AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l and Byd Elec all posting &gt; 10% weekly gains.
Gains were positive with helpful seasonals but not as widespread as last week with fewer singles stocks and Sectors participating in the rally.
China Vanke has big increase in option trading, in particular Calls, with implied vols also rising. 


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>China announced game approval for the January batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.</li>
<li>The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.</li>
<li>Tencent and CMGE received one approval for January, respectively. We also highlight perplexity of Tencent's approved game. </li>
</ul>


China announced game approval for the January batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
Tencent and CMGE received one approval for January, respectively. We also highlight perplexity of Tencent's approved game. 


Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in Jan and the Perplexity

<ul>
<li>Mainland China investors continued to increase their purchases of Hong Kong shares through the southbound connect platform after Trump's win. Mainland investors bought a record HK$800B of HK shares in 2024.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weimob-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27394:1" rel="noopener">Weimob Inc. (2013 HK)</a> announced it is connecting its Weimob mini-programs to Tencent's (700 HK) WeChat mini-shop. This move further integrates the SaaS company into Tencent's ecosystem.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a> announced a license agreement with US-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aadi-bioscience-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37488:1" rel="noopener">Aadi Bioscience (AADI US)</a>.  Also, Wuxi was not included in the Senate version of the BioSecure legislation improving investor sentiment.
</li>
</ul>


Mainland China investors continued to increase their purchases of Hong Kong shares through the southbound connect platform after Trump's win. Mainland investors bought a record HK$800B of HK shares in 2024.

Weimob Inc. (2013 HK) announced it is connecting its Weimob mini-programs to Tencent's (700 HK) WeChat mini-shop. This move further integrates the SaaS company into Tencent's ecosystem.


Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) announced a license agreement with US-based Aadi Bioscience (AADI US).  Also, Wuxi was not included in the Senate version of the BioSecure legislation improving investor sentiment.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (December 26)

China

Kingsoft Corporation Ltd. develops and markets computer software.  The Company develops role-playing computer games and security, word processing, and spreadsheet software.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK)

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 25)

HSTECH advances with good market breadth in January. SMIC is benefiting from AI advances as well as the localization trend in semi industry. ...

David Mudd

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation

Strong gains in information technology stocks AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l, and Byd Elec, but rally not as widespread as last week.

John Ley

Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in Jan and the Perplexity

We analyzed the game approval issued by NPPA for Chinese online game players for the month of January. Game approvals for large players are slow so...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (December 26)

Mainland investors are increasing their buying of HK shares after Trump's election win. Mainlanders bought a record HK$800B of shares this year and...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 25)

HSTECH advances with good market breadth in January. SMIC is benefiting from AI advances as well as the localization trend in semi industry. ...

David Mudd

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation

​Strong gains in information technology stocks AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l, and Byd Elec, but rally not as widespread as last week.

John Ley

Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in Jan and the Perplexity

We analyzed the game approval issued by NPPA for Chinese online game players for the month of January. Game approvals for large players are slow so...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (December 26)

Mainland investors are increasing their buying of HK shares after Trump's election win. Mainlanders bought a record HK$800B of shares this year and...

David Mudd

Strong gains in information technology stocks AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l, and Byd Elec, but rally not as widespread as last week.