Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Overall, it was a strong week for Taiwan Tech. TSMC and Mediatek showed strong performances, as well as key names we like such as Yageo and Himax.</li>
<li>AI-Related Taiwan plays showed relative weakness. This weakness interestingly happened during a week when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) </a>performed well.</li>
<li>According to insight provider Patrick Liao, MediaTek WiFi 7 chip competition is likely to become fierce in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Overall, it was a strong week for Taiwan Tech. TSMC and Mediatek showed strong performances, as well as key names we like such as Yageo and Himax.
AI-Related Taiwan plays showed relative weakness. This weakness interestingly happened during a week when NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) performed well.
According to insight provider Patrick Liao, MediaTek WiFi 7 chip competition is likely to become fierce in 2024.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: AI Plays Weak Despite Strong Taiwan Tech Market Performance

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Improving outlook with Q1F24 revenue forecast slightly above the high end of the guided range</li>
<li>2024 is being positioned as a "recovery year", helping reset investor expectations about the nature and speed of the recovery</li>
<li>Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present rally is premature. </li>
</ul>


Improving outlook with Q1F24 revenue forecast slightly above the high end of the guided range
2024 is being positioned as a "recovery year", helping reset investor expectations about the nature and speed of the recovery
Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present rally is premature. 


<ul>
<li>SK Hynix reported Q323 revenues of 9.066 trillion won, up 24% QoQ but still down 17% YoY</li>
<li>Net income was -2.185 trillion won, a 27% improvement on the losses in the prior quarter.</li>
<li>While DRAM has turned profitable, NAND remains stubbornly loss making and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future</li>
</ul>


SK Hynix reported Q323 revenues of 9.066 trillion won, up 24% QoQ but still down 17% YoY
Net income was -2.185 trillion won, a 27% improvement on the losses in the prior quarter.
While DRAM has turned profitable, NAND remains stubbornly loss making and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future


Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Silicon Motion Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MaxLinear's acquisition of Silicon Motion has been abandoned, with both sides threatening arbitration. </li>
<li>It is difficult to understand why the acquisition would have resulted in the synergies projected by management.  The businesses are very different.</li>
<li>Assuming the companies go different ways, expect for SiMo to perform as it has in the past.</li>
</ul>


MaxLinear's acquisition of Silicon Motion has been abandoned, with both sides threatening arbitration. 
It is difficult to understand why the acquisition would have resulted in the synergies projected by management.  The businesses are very different.
Assuming the companies go different ways, expect for SiMo to perform as it has in the past.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It has been four months since JIP officially announced their intention to launch a Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> by end-July. 7 weeks since Toshiba's Board supported it.</li>
<li>There's been no material public griping. Peers are sharply higher. There have been news stories suggesting a Western Digital/Kioxia deal is close. That's now extended. The Toshiba deal possibly too. </li>
<li>But huge outperformance by peers, and possible clarity from Kioxia deal terms are unlikely to move the Toshiba Board to demand more. </li>
</ul>


It has been four months since JIP officially announced their intention to launch a Tender Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) by end-July. 7 weeks since Toshiba's Board supported it.
There's been no material public griping. Peers are sharply higher. There have been news stories suggesting a Western Digital/Kioxia deal is close. That's now extended. The Toshiba deal possibly too. 
But huge outperformance by peers, and possible clarity from Kioxia deal terms are unlikely to move the Toshiba Board to demand more. 


Toshiba (6502) Tender - Certainly Cheaper. Maybe Delayed, But Toshiba Fatigue Is Strong

Japan

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

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Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AI Plays Weak Despite Strong Taiwan Tech Market Performance

AI-Related Taiwan plays showed relative weakness. This weakness interestingly happened during a week when NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) performed well.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron. The Rally Is Premature

Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present...

William Keating

SK Hynix. DRAM To The Rescue

SK Hynix rQ323 revenues 9.066 trillion won, up 24% QoQ but still -17% YoY. Net income -2.185 trillion won, a 27% improvement QoQ. While DRAM...

William Keating

What's Next for SiMo?

MaxLinear has called off its planned acquisition of Silicon Motion. Does this indicate future problems for SiMo? Not necessarily.

Jim Handy

Toshiba (6502) Tender - Certainly Cheaper. Maybe Delayed, But Toshiba Fatigue Is Strong

Toshiba has sharply underperformed a broad peer basket since March. Too cheap has become cheaper. A Kioxia valuation input may arrive, but I expect...

Travis Lundy

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