Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.</li>
<li>A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. </li>
<li>A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. </li>
</ul>


On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.
A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. 
A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. 


US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a> shares were up 19.1% based on a <a href="https://news.bloombergtax.com/private-equity/taiyo-holdings-gets-buyout-proposals-from-firms-including-kkr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg report</a> that it received privatisation proposals from KKR and Nippon Sangyo Suishin Kiko. </li>
<li>Taiyo confirmed that it has received privatisation offers. The Board would view privatisation as a solution to rid itself of Oasis, which has recently waged an <a href="https://www.corpgovfortaiyo.com/taiyo-corp-gov" target="_blank" rel="noopener">activist campaign</a>. </li>
<li>At the last close price of JPY6,230, Oasis would be up 45.9% on its highest price of JPY4,720. My analysis suggests that an offer around JPY7,000 can be justified.</li>
</ul>



Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) shares were up 19.1% based on a Bloomberg report that it received privatisation proposals from KKR and Nippon Sangyo Suishin Kiko. 
Taiyo confirmed that it has received privatisation offers. The Board would view privatisation as a solution to rid itself of Oasis, which has recently waged an activist campaign. 
At the last close price of JPY6,230, Oasis would be up 45.9% on its highest price of JPY4,720. My analysis suggests that an offer around JPY7,000 can be justified.


Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): Privatisation Interest as Oasis Agitates

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> is the main candidate for addition-transition with uncertainty arising from the 'Multiple Share Classes' criterion. Forecasted demand is ~$7bn and ~4 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/williams-sonoma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11383:1" rel="noopener">Williams Sonoma (WSM US)</a> is one of the top candidates for addition-migration with uncertainty due to the migrations' inconsistent market cap selection pattern. Forecasted demand is $840m and ~2.6 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/american-airlines-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3663:1" rel="noopener">American Airlines Group (AAL US)</a> is one of the main candidates for deletion with uncertainty due to price hence ranking fluctuations until cut-off. Forecasted supply is $290m and ~0.8 ADV.</li>
</ul>



Dell Technologies (DELL US) is the main candidate for addition-transition with uncertainty arising from the 'Multiple Share Classes' criterion. Forecasted demand is ~$7bn and ~4 ADV.

Williams Sonoma (WSM US) is one of the top candidates for addition-migration with uncertainty due to the migrations' inconsistent market cap selection pattern. Forecasted demand is $840m and ~2.6 ADV.

American Airlines Group (AAL US) is one of the main candidates for deletion with uncertainty due to price hence ranking fluctuations until cut-off. Forecasted supply is $290m and ~0.8 ADV.


S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>On Friday, the S&amp;P index committee announced the June 2024 changes to the three major indices in the S&amp;P1500 universe. </li>
<li>KKR, Crowdstrike (CRWD), and GoDaddy (GDDY) replace Robert Half (RHI), Comerica (CMA), and Illumina (ILMN) in the S&amp;P500. There are 6 ADDs to S&amp;PMidCap400, 13 DELETEs from Sm600. </li>
<li>There are some BIG and impactful flows here. Some are very big. Netted 2-way flow on 21 June is ~US$66-80bn. But as always, details matter. </li>
</ul>


On Friday, the S&amp;P index committee announced the June 2024 changes to the three major indices in the S&amp;P1500 universe. 
KKR, Crowdstrike (CRWD), and GoDaddy (GDDY) replace Robert Half (RHI), Comerica (CMA), and Illumina (ILMN) in the S&amp;P500. There are 6 ADDs to S&amp;PMidCap400, 13 DELETEs from Sm600. 
There are some BIG and impactful flows here. Some are very big. Netted 2-way flow on 21 June is ~US$66-80bn. But as always, details matter. 


Jun24 S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - Both More and Less Interesting Than You Think, But 3 Big Buys

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>The index is reviewed quarterly. The next review will be in June 2024 and the evaluation date for the rankings for the constituent selection process is 6th June 2024.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs and Potential DELs for the June 2024 index rebal event and the intra-review ADDs/DELs.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
The index is reviewed quarterly. The next review will be in June 2024 and the evaluation date for the rankings for the constituent selection process is 6th June 2024.
In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs and Potential DELs for the June 2024 index rebal event and the intra-review ADDs/DELs.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 June 2024 - Minimal Changes Expected but Intrareview Changes Possible

United States

KKR & Co. Inc. operates as an investment firm. The Company manages investments such as private equity, energy, infrastructure, real estate, credit strategies, and hedge funds. KKR & Co serves clients worldwide.

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KKR & Co (KKR US)

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): Privatisation Interest as Oasis Agitates

The Board would view privatisation as a solution to rid itself of Oasis, which has recently waged an activist campaign. My analysis suggests that...

Arun George

S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Jun24 S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - Both More and Less Interesting Than You Think, But 3 Big Buys

The S&P500/400/600 rebalance is interesting. As usual, some names will get overbought early, and others will not get bought enough. For a bunch of...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 June 2024 - Minimal Changes Expected but Intrareview Changes Possible

For the moment, there are 1-2 changes expected in Q2 for the S&P500. They could both be intra-review changes but timing is likely to be late. So...

Travis Lundy

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US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): Privatisation Interest as Oasis Agitates

The Board would view privatisation as a solution to rid itself of Oasis, which has recently waged an activist campaign. My analysis suggests that...

Arun George

S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

​Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Jun24 S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - Both More and Less Interesting Than You Think, But 3 Big Buys

The S&P500/400/600 rebalance is interesting. As usual, some names will get overbought early, and others will not get bought enough. For a bunch of...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 June 2024 - Minimal Changes Expected but Intrareview Changes Possible

For the moment, there are 1-2 changes expected in Q2 for the S&P500. They could both be intra-review changes but timing is likely to be late. So...

Travis Lundy

Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...