Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, the Nikkei Index Committee decided to delete Nippon Paper (3863) for low liquidity, and DIC (4631) for sector over-representation, and added Nomura Research Institute (4307) and Ryohin Keikaku (7453).</li>
<li>The only <em>auto-delete</em> was Nippon Paper. The DIC delete was "discretionary." But they could have done a third. Why did they not do a third change? I do not know.</li>
<li>The whole shebang should be ¥350-375bn a side. At current price, Fast Retailing is set for another capping (selling) event in March 2025. And there is one shoo-in then too.</li>
</ul>


Today, the Nikkei Index Committee decided to delete Nippon Paper (3863) for low liquidity, and DIC (4631) for sector over-representation, and added Nomura Research Institute (4307) and Ryohin Keikaku (7453).
The only auto-delete was Nippon Paper. The DIC delete was "discretionary." But they could have done a third. Why did they not do a third change? I do not know.
The whole shebang should be ¥350-375bn a side. At current price, Fast Retailing is set for another capping (selling) event in March 2025. And there is one shoo-in then too.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT

<ul>
<li>The last two reviews have been announced on the second business day of the month of the review. The one before that on the third business day.</li>
<li>The review could be announced today or tomorrow. Wednesday would seem to be "late."</li>
<li>There are still questions about implementation - thus "care" in previous insights. Here I explore the possibilities/probabilities/issues around the edges. And a Dark Horse which may be lighter than thought.</li>
</ul>


The last two reviews have been announced on the second business day of the month of the review. The one before that on the third business day.
The review could be announced today or tomorrow. Wednesday would seem to be "late."
There are still questions about implementation - thus "care" in previous insights. Here I explore the possibilities/probabilities/issues around the edges. And a Dark Horse which may be lighter than thought.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Last Minute Thoughts and Change in Predictions

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terumo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6708:1" rel="noopener">Terumo Corp (4543 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 73.2 million shares, worth JPY203 billion (US$1.4 billion) at the last close. </li>
<li>The secondary offering facilitates the exit of large shareholders. Terumo also announced a buyback worth a maximum of JPY30 billion or 15 million shares.</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 10 and 12 September (likely 10 September).</li>
</ul>



Terumo Corp (4543 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 73.2 million shares, worth JPY203 billion (US$1.4 billion) at the last close. 
The secondary offering facilitates the exit of large shareholders. Terumo also announced a buyback worth a maximum of JPY30 billion or 15 million shares.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 10 and 12 September (likely 10 September).


Terumo (4543 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-metro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40930:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro</a> with valuations of ~$10bn and ~$4.6bn are expected to be listed in October 2024 and become the largest Japanese IPOs since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> in 2018.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP)</a> is currently forecasted to fail fast entries of both Global indices due to low IPO free float. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-metro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40930:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro</a> is expected to be added via fast-entry in one Global Index because of higher IPO free float. Forecasted demand of ~$140m is expected on the fifth trading day.</li>
</ul>



Kioxia and Tokyo Metro with valuations of ~$10bn and ~$4.6bn are expected to be listed in October 2024 and become the largest Japanese IPOs since Softbank Corp (9434 JP) in 2018.

Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP) is currently forecasted to fail fast entries of both Global indices due to low IPO free float. 

Tokyo Metro is expected to be added via fast-entry in one Global Index because of higher IPO free float. Forecasted demand of ~$140m is expected on the fifth trading day.


Kioxia & Tokyo Metro: Japan's Largest IPOs Since 2018 Expected This October

<ul>
<li>IPO lock-up expiry of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> results in a forecasted increase in free float to 35% and fcap of $2.9bn for the August 2024 review. </li>
<li>Secondary offering of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> results in a forecasted increase in free float to 60-65% and latest fcap of $3.4bn- $3.7bn for the November 2024 review. </li>
<li>Inclusion will be determined based on fcap against the fcap threshold. Fcap uncertainty for November is largely driven by stock price fluctuations and the Greenshoe Option. </li>
</ul>


IPO lock-up expiry of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) results in a forecasted increase in free float to 35% and fcap of $2.9bn for the August 2024 review. 
Secondary offering of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) results in a forecasted increase in free float to 60-65% and latest fcap of $3.4bn- $3.7bn for the November 2024 review. 
Inclusion will be determined based on fcap against the fcap threshold. Fcap uncertainty for November is largely driven by stock price fluctuations and the Greenshoe Option. 


Kokusai Electric (6525): Global Index Inclusion Highly Dependent on Free Float

Japan

Kokusai Electric Corporation manufactures and distributes semiconductor manufacturing systems. The Company produces batch processing systems, single wafer processing systems, and other systems. Kokusai Electric also operates advanced thermal process technology development, training, and other businesses.

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Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results: A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT

The Nikkei 225 Sep24 Review is out. Ryohin Keikaku/NRI in, Nippon Paper/DIC out. Fast Retailing capped. Much as expected. Except why 2 changes, not...

Travis Lundy

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Last Minute Thoughts and Change in Predictions

The September Nikkei 225 rebalance is likely to be announced either today, tomorrow, or Thursday. I have adjusted my picks to go for 3 x 3. If I...

Travis Lundy

Terumo (4543 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 10 and...

Arun George

Kioxia & Tokyo Metro: Japan's Largest IPOs Since 2018 Expected This October

Kioxia and Tokyo Metro are expected to list in October at valuations of ~$10bn and ~$4.6bn. Tokyo Metro is forecasted to qualify for fast-entry...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Kokusai Electric (6525): Global Index Inclusion Highly Dependent on Free Float

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was added at this August 2024 review. It is estimated that the IPO lock-up expiry resulted in the forecasted increase in...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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