Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>December seasonals across major markets show a generally positive profile, but the path is uneven, with most gains clustering in the final days of the month.</li>
<li>Several markets offer appealing vol selling setups, particularly those with consistently positive December vol premiums and elevated implied levels relative to past outcomes.</li>
<li>Nifty vol appears attractively priced, but its tendency not to monetize in December requires traders to think differently about how they extract value.</li>
</ul>


December seasonals across major markets show a generally positive profile, but the path is uneven, with most gains clustering in the final days of the month.
Several markets offer appealing vol selling setups, particularly those with consistently positive December vol premiums and elevated implied levels relative to past outcomes.
Nifty vol appears attractively priced, but its tendency not to monetize in December requires traders to think differently about how they extract value.


Macro Monthly (December): Seasonal Strength, Vol Selling Edges and a Notable Nifty Setup

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

<ul>
<li>Samsung is positioned as a global hub for the AI Supercycle, driven by a pivot to memory technology, and evidenced by a KRW 450T ($310 billion) local investment plan.</li>
<li>The Device Solutions division's Q3 2025 rebound (sales +19% sequentially) and an estimated 43.4% Fwd 2-Yr EPS CAGR support potential upside for the stock</li>
<li>The company has demonstrated a commitment to enhancing shareholder value by completing its 10T share repurchase program ahead of schedule and maintaining a consistent annual dividend payout through 2026.</li>
</ul>


Samsung is positioned as a global hub for the AI Supercycle, driven by a pivot to memory technology, and evidenced by a KRW 450T ($310 billion) local investment plan.
The Device Solutions division's Q3 2025 rebound (sales +19% sequentially) and an estimated 43.4% Fwd 2-Yr EPS CAGR support potential upside for the stock
The company has demonstrated a commitment to enhancing shareholder value by completing its 10T share repurchase program ahead of schedule and maintaining a consistent annual dividend payout through 2026.


[2026 High Conviction] Korean Mega Cap Investment: Samsung’s $310B Tech Spend, the AI-Momentum Trade

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will commence on 1 December and will end on 28 February.</li>
<li>Nearing the start of the averaging period, we forecast 34 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 2 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.</li>
<li>The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations by a lot over the last 3 months. The gap in returns versus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> is a lot smaller.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will commence on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
Nearing the start of the averaging period, we forecast 34 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 2 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations by a lot over the last 3 months. The gap in returns versus the KOSPI2 INDEX is a lot smaller.


KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts

<ul>
<li>There will be 7 additions and 8 deletions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 11 December.</li>
<li>As expected, there are no adhoc inclusions as Samsung Epis Holdings is added to the index to offset the gap created by the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hd-hyundai-heavy-industries-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33808:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hd-hyundai-mipo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2755:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Mipo</a> merger.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes very handily while also outperforming the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> but by a much narrower margin.</li>
</ul>


There will be 7 additions and 8 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 11 December.
As expected, there are no adhoc inclusions as Samsung Epis Holdings is added to the index to offset the gap created by the Hyundai Heavy/ Hyundai Mipo merger.
The adds have outperformed the deletes very handily while also outperforming the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) but by a much narrower margin.


<ul>
<li>AI-Driven KOSPI concentration necessitates a balanced, diversified portfolio (AI/Tech + Defensives) with a tactical hedge.</li>
<li>KOSPI's 84% YTD gain is narrowly led by Samsung and SK Hynix (45% of gains), raising concentration risk tied to the volatile global AI capex cycle.</li>
<li>The strategy is built by blending high-beta AI-linked technology exposure with lower-beta insurance and industrial stocks for ballast and stability.</li>
</ul>


AI-Driven KOSPI concentration necessitates a balanced, diversified portfolio (AI/Tech + Defensives) with a tactical hedge.
KOSPI's 84% YTD gain is narrowly led by Samsung and SK Hynix (45% of gains), raising concentration risk tied to the volatile global AI capex cycle.
The strategy is built by blending high-beta AI-linked technology exposure with lower-beta insurance and industrial stocks for ballast and stability.


Samsung, SK Hynix, Samsung F&M, Meritz: The Balanced AI-Momentum Korea Portfolio, and KOSPI Options

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Macro Monthly (December): Seasonal Strength, Vol Selling Edges and a Notable Nifty Setup

December’s uneven but historically positive pattern sets the backdrop, with several markets offering strong vol selling edges and Nifty presenting...

John Ley

[2026 High Conviction] Korean Mega Cap Investment: Samsung’s $310B Tech Spend, the AI-Momentum Trade

Samsung is leading the Memory Supercycle with a focus on memory technology, backed by a massive investment plan and strong financial performance,...

Jay Cameron

KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts

There could be 34 migrations for the KOSPI Size Indices in March. Among new listings, there could be 1 LargeCap add, 2 MidCap adds and 2 SmallCap...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Nearly Perfect

As expected, there are 7 changes a side (ignoring the merger, which was known). No ad hoc inclusions since the Hyundai merger offsets the Samsung...

Brian Freitas

Samsung, SK Hynix, Samsung F&M, Meritz: The Balanced AI-Momentum Korea Portfolio, and KOSPI Options

Investors in KOSPI should consider balancing their portfolios with a mix of AI/Tech and defensive stocks to mitigate concentration risk from...

Jay Cameron

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Macro Monthly (December): Seasonal Strength, Vol Selling Edges and a Notable Nifty Setup

December’s uneven but historically positive pattern sets the backdrop, with several markets offering strong vol selling edges and Nifty presenting...

John Ley

[2026 High Conviction] Korean Mega Cap Investment: Samsung’s $310B Tech Spend, the AI-Momentum Trade

​Samsung is leading the Memory Supercycle with a focus on memory technology, backed by a massive investment plan and strong financial performance,...

Jay Cameron

KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts

There could be 34 migrations for the KOSPI Size Indices in March. Among new listings, there could be 1 LargeCap add, 2 MidCap adds and 2 SmallCap...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Nearly Perfect

As expected, there are 7 changes a side (ignoring the merger, which was known). No ad hoc inclusions since the Hyundai merger offsets the Samsung...

Brian Freitas

Samsung, SK Hynix, Samsung F&M, Meritz: The Balanced AI-Momentum Korea Portfolio, and KOSPI Options

​Investors in KOSPI should consider balancing their portfolios with a mix of AI/Tech and defensive stocks to mitigate concentration risk from...

Jay Cameron

Samsung is leading the Memory Supercycle with a focus on memory technology, backed by a massive investment plan and strong financial performance,...

Investors in KOSPI should consider balancing their portfolios with a mix of AI/Tech and defensive stocks to mitigate concentration risk from...