Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36806:1" rel="noopener">EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS)</a> was founded in 2017 and specializes in manufacturing cathode material precursors, a core material for lithium secondary cells.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36806:1" rel="noopener">EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS)</a> could raise between US$387m-US$492m, valuing the company between US$1.9bn-US$2.42bn. Float will depend on voluntary lock-ups and allocation to strategic investors.</li>
<li>Inclusion in global indices is likely to take place between February to June, while the highest probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> inclusion is in December 2024.</li>
</ul>



EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) was founded in 2017 and specializes in manufacturing cathode material precursors, a core material for lithium secondary cells.

EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) could raise between US$387m-US$492m, valuing the company between US$1.9bn-US$2.42bn. Float will depend on voluntary lock-ups and allocation to strategic investors.
Inclusion in global indices is likely to take place between February to June, while the highest probability of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) inclusion is in December 2024.


Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> closed down last week (CC=-1) and is currently down this week as well (CC=-2 to be confirmed on Friday), currently approaching Q3 support at 324.</li>
<li>Based on Market Reversal Matrix time/price models, if this week the KOSPI closes down at &lt;=324, the index will have a &gt;75% probability to close the next week up.</li>
<li>Going LONG is not without risk at this stage: this pattern is not bullish, the correction could reach &lt;300, based on the models, but the index is getting OVERSOLD.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 INDEX closed down last week (CC=-1) and is currently down this week as well (CC=-2 to be confirmed on Friday), currently approaching Q3 support at 324.
Based on Market Reversal Matrix time/price models, if this week the KOSPI closes down at &lt;=324, the index will have a &gt;75% probability to close the next week up.
Going LONG is not without risk at this stage: this pattern is not bullish, the correction could reach &lt;300, based on the models, but the index is getting OVERSOLD.


Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The proposal to increase NPS's annual target investment return rate by 1%p by 2028. A rough mathematical estimate suggests the necessity of an additional investment of nearly ₩60T until 2028.</li>
<li>It augments the overall investment volume in local stocks to ₩200T. This projection implies an annual net purchase of approximately ₩12T from the forthcoming year through 2028.</li>
<li>Consequently, this matter is currently among the most captivating topics in the Korean local market, and efforts are underway to identify the sectors and stocks that stand to benefit.</li>
</ul>


The proposal to increase NPS's annual target investment return rate by 1%p by 2028. A rough mathematical estimate suggests the necessity of an additional investment of nearly ₩60T until 2028.
It augments the overall investment volume in local stocks to ₩200T. This projection implies an annual net purchase of approximately ₩12T from the forthcoming year through 2028.
Consequently, this matter is currently among the most captivating topics in the Korean local market, and efforts are underway to identify the sectors and stocks that stand to benefit.


Korea NPS's Funds Influx into Local Stock Market Starting Next Year: What to Know

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> WEEKLY did rise last week and is approaching OVERBOUGHT territory based on the current short-term trend pattern (Q3 resistance is at 346).</li>
<li>The current pattern is bearish, but if the market gains momentum and rallies for 2 more weeks, it could reach 357 during the 3rd week up (not earlier).</li>
<li>The alternative scenario, a better fit for this bearish pattern, is that the index starts to pull back this week, or remains weak this week and falls the next.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 INDEX WEEKLY did rise last week and is approaching OVERBOUGHT territory based on the current short-term trend pattern (Q3 resistance is at 346).
The current pattern is bearish, but if the market gains momentum and rallies for 2 more weeks, it could reach 357 during the 3rd week up (not earlier).
The alternative scenario, a better fit for this bearish pattern, is that the index starts to pull back this week, or remains weak this week and falls the next.


EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

<ul>
<li>Foreign room in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> increased above 15% in July and is currently just above 16%. Foreign investors have resumed buying again and foreign room is moving lower.</li>
<li>Foreign room staying above 15% for another month could result in passive buying at the end of November. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> has outperformed peers over the last few weeks.</li>
<li>Foreign buying over the next month could lead to foreign room dropping below 15% in which case there will be no passive inflows. But the stock could be higher.</li>
</ul>


Foreign room in SK Telecom (017670 KS) increased above 15% in July and is currently just above 16%. Foreign investors have resumed buying again and foreign room is moving lower.
Foreign room staying above 15% for another month could result in passive buying at the end of November. SK Telecom (017670 KS) has outperformed peers over the last few weeks.
Foreign buying over the next month could lead to foreign room dropping below 15% in which case there will be no passive inflows. But the stock could be higher.


SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room & Passive Inflows

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

EcoPro Materials: IPO & Index Inclusion

Extremely high multiples used to come up with the IPO price band. Possible inclusion in global indices from Feb to June while the highest...

Brian Freitas

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index Getting OVERSOLD

The KOSPI 200 Index is down 2 weeks and approaching Q3 support. The index is OVERSOLD. If it closes <=324 this week, the probability of closing up...

Nico Rosti

Korea NPS's Funds Influx into Local Stock Market Starting Next Year: What to Know

This post explores one of the most captivating topics in Korea at this point from a market-wide flow perspective: funds influx into the local stock...

Sanghyun Park

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

The KOSPI 200 Index is approaching Q3/overbought territory, this pattern is bearish, but if the index keeps rallying for 2 more weeks, it could...

Nico Rosti

SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room & Passive Inflows

SK Telecom's foreign room is over 16% and the stock could see passive buying (and pre-positioning). Foreigners have resumed buying and the stock...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EcoPro Materials: IPO & Index Inclusion

Extremely high multiples used to come up with the IPO price band. Possible inclusion in global indices from Feb to June while the highest...

Brian Freitas

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index Getting OVERSOLD

​The KOSPI 200 Index is down 2 weeks and approaching Q3 support. The index is OVERSOLD. If it closes <=324 this week, the probability of closing up...

Nico Rosti

Korea NPS's Funds Influx into Local Stock Market Starting Next Year: What to Know

This post explores one of the most captivating topics in Korea at this point from a market-wide flow perspective: funds influx into the local stock...

Sanghyun Park

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

​The KOSPI 200 Index is approaching Q3/overbought territory, this pattern is bearish, but if the index keeps rallying for 2 more weeks, it could...

Nico Rosti

SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room & Passive Inflows

SK Telecom's foreign room is over 16% and the stock could see passive buying (and pre-positioning). Foreigners have resumed buying and the stock...

Brian Freitas

The KOSPI 200 Index is down 2 weeks and approaching Q3 support. The index is OVERSOLD. If it closes <=324 this week, the probability of closing up...

The KOSPI 200 Index is approaching Q3/overbought territory, this pattern is bearish, but if the index keeps rallying for 2 more weeks, it could...