Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>In just three weeks, on June 3rd, South Korea will hold an early presidential election.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> on Tuesday closed at 347.17,  entering deeply overbought territory based on our time and price quantitative models. </li>
<li>Whether the index rallies into the election and then declines, or starts selling off ahead of the vote, our tactical stance is unchanged: we recommend short exposure or appropriate hedging.
</li>
</ul>


In just three weeks, on June 3rd, South Korea will hold an early presidential election.
The KOSPI 200 INDEX on Tuesday closed at 347.17,  entering deeply overbought territory based on our time and price quantitative models. 
Whether the index rallies into the election and then declines, or starts selling off ahead of the vote, our tactical stance is unchanged: we recommend short exposure or appropriate hedging.



KOSPI 200 Tactical Outlook: Waiting for the June Elections

<ul>
<li>South Korea is likely to be put on a watch list for development market status in the MSCI index in the near future, the country's financial regulator said Monday.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> at the moment shows a strange divergence between the price and the time model, based on our quantitative analysis: one "underbought", the other overbought.
</li>
<li>Our interpretation: the trend has exhausted its time window to rally (overbought) and failed to reach any significative resistance targets (=weakness), hence we could see a sell-off, this week.
</li>
</ul>


South Korea is likely to be put on a watch list for development market status in the MSCI index in the near future, the country's financial regulator said Monday.
The KOSPI 200 INDEX at the moment shows a strange divergence between the price and the time model, based on our quantitative analysis: one "underbought", the other overbought.

Our interpretation: the trend has exhausted its time window to rally (overbought) and failed to reach any significative resistance targets (=weakness), hence we could see a sell-off, this week.



KOSPI 200 Short Term Tactical Outlook Amid Rumors of Korea Joining the MSCI DM Watchlist

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Price action was volatile this week, marked by two large moves and a notable pickup in vol of vol.</li>
<li>We examine the material steepening of skew observed over the course of the week.</li>
<li>USD/KRW broke its recent range, reinforcing signs that USD assets may be losing their traditional flight to quality appeal.</li>
</ul>


Price action was volatile this week, marked by two large moves and a notable pickup in vol of vol.
We examine the material steepening of skew observed over the course of the week.
USD/KRW broke its recent range, reinforcing signs that USD assets may be losing their traditional flight to quality appeal.


Kospi Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11):  Skew Shifts Steepens and Positioning Signals

<ul>
<li>Volatility percentiles are flashing red, and we explore what recent price action could signal for the week ahead.</li>
<li>Implied vol rose meaningfully, approaching historical extremes, with more pressure likely as the week begins.</li>
<li>Options hedge adjustments are discussed following a strong move in both price and vol.</li>
</ul>


Volatility percentiles are flashing red, and we explore what recent price action could signal for the week ahead.
Implied vol rose meaningfully, approaching historical extremes, with more pressure likely as the week begins.
Options hedge adjustments are discussed following a strong move in both price and vol.


Kospi Index Options Weekly (Mar 31 – Apr 4): Rising Vol, Local and Global Political Undercurrents

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs caused significant declines across Asia-Pacific markets. Although initial losses were partially recovered during the day, most markets closed substantially lower.</li>
<li>
Impact on South Korea: South Korea faces a 25% tariff. This led to a 1.5% drop in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX).</a> </li>
<li>
Volatility Increase: The Kospi 200 VIX index rose to a high of 28.64 before retreating to 26.05, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.</li>
</ul>



Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs caused significant declines across Asia-Pacific markets. Although initial losses were partially recovered during the day, most markets closed substantially lower.

Impact on South Korea: South Korea faces a 25% tariff. This led to a 1.5% drop in the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX). 

Volatility Increase: The Kospi 200 VIX index rose to a high of 28.64 before retreating to 26.05, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.


KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 Index) Hits 99th Percentile Implied Volatility Amid US Tariff Impact

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

KOSPI 200 Tactical Outlook: Waiting for the June Elections

The KOSPI 200 INDEX is in overbought territory ahead of SK's early presidential election on June 3rd, this insight discusses tactical...

Nico Rosti

KOSPI 200 Short Term Tactical Outlook Amid Rumors of Korea Joining the MSCI DM Watchlist

While South Korea may be added to MSCI’s watchlist for Developed Market status, our model's short-term tactical outlook for the KOSPI 200 suggests...

Nico Rosti

Kospi Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Skew Shifts Steepens and Positioning Signals

This week saw volatile price action and a steepening of skew. We discuss the shift that appears to be underway in traditional flight to quality...

John Ley

Kospi Index Options Weekly (Mar 31 – Apr 4): Rising Vol, Local and Global Political Undercurrents

We discuss how trading could unfold on Monday, the adjustment of a hedge recommendation and why recent price action hardens our conviction that...

John Ley

KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 Index) Hits 99th Percentile Implied Volatility Amid US Tariff Impact

US reciprocal tariffs announcement caused significant declines in Asia-Pacific markets, impacting South Korea with the KOSPI 200 implied...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

KOSPI 200 Tactical Outlook: Waiting for the June Elections

The KOSPI 200 INDEX is in overbought territory ahead of SK's early presidential election on June 3rd, this insight discusses tactical...

Nico Rosti

KOSPI 200 Short Term Tactical Outlook Amid Rumors of Korea Joining the MSCI DM Watchlist

While South Korea may be added to MSCI’s watchlist for Developed Market status, our model's short-term tactical outlook for the KOSPI 200 suggests...

Nico Rosti

Kospi Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Skew Shifts Steepens and Positioning Signals

​This week saw volatile price action and a steepening of skew. We discuss the shift that appears to be underway in traditional flight to quality...

John Ley

Kospi Index Options Weekly (Mar 31 – Apr 4): Rising Vol, Local and Global Political Undercurrents

We discuss how trading could unfold on Monday, the adjustment of a hedge recommendation and why recent price action hardens our conviction that...

John Ley

KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 Index) Hits 99th Percentile Implied Volatility Amid US Tariff Impact

​US reciprocal tariffs announcement caused significant declines in Asia-Pacific markets, impacting South Korea with the KOSPI 200 implied...

Gaudenz Schneider

This week saw volatile price action and a steepening of skew. We discuss the shift that appears to be underway in traditional flight to quality...

US reciprocal tariffs announcement caused significant declines in Asia-Pacific markets, impacting South Korea with the KOSPI 200 implied...