Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs expires on July 9, 2025. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India, now face a return to steep US tariffs.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Markets reacted sharply to the original tariff announcement in April, with volatility peaking. While implied volatility eased in May, it has since climbed again, suggesting rising investor concern.</li>
<li>
Why Read: As markets face renewed risk of stress, this Insight helps investors understand which markets and sectors are most exposed, how volatility is evolving, and how best to position.</li>
</ul>



Context: The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs expires on July 9, 2025. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India, now face a return to steep US tariffs.

Highlights: Markets reacted sharply to the original tariff announcement in April, with volatility peaking. While implied volatility eased in May, it has since climbed again, suggesting rising investor concern.

Why Read: As markets face renewed risk of stress, this Insight helps investors understand which markets and sectors are most exposed, how volatility is evolving, and how best to position.


Tariff Risk Returns: Market Signals and Asia’s Volatility Momentum

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>We assess whether recent returns have been extreme and put yesterday’s sharp rally in context.</li>
<li>The evolution of volatility following past extreme states is examined.</li>
<li>Rationale for using optionality in this stretched price environment is outlined.</li>
</ul>


We assess whether recent returns have been extreme and put yesterday’s sharp rally in context.
The evolution of volatility following past extreme states is examined.
Rationale for using optionality in this stretched price environment is outlined.


Kospi200: Elevated Returns, Historical Extremes and Optionality Opportunity

<ul>
<li>Kospi200 posted a strong weekly gain, advancing every day and extending a powerful rally off the April lows.</li>
<li>The percentage of positive trading days since early April reflects strong momentum.</li>
<li>A divergence is emerging, with implied volatility no longer reacting to spot moves as before.</li>
</ul>


Kospi200 posted a strong weekly gain, advancing every day and extending a powerful rally off the April lows.
The percentage of positive trading days since early April reflects strong momentum.
A divergence is emerging, with implied volatility no longer reacting to spot moves as before.


Kospi200: Where Implied Vol Stands After 33% Surge

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> has been rising &gt; 30% since its 303-low in early April 2025: a vertical rally after Lee Jae-myung's won the Presidential Elections in South Korea.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kospi-200-update-market-moves-after-lee-jae-myung-s-victory" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Our most extreme profit target set in our latest insight was 392</a>. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> reached 394 on June 16th. It is now ultra-overbought. 
</li>
<li>Our short-term WEEKLY tactical view is the following: the index could go maybe a bit higher or it could pullback soon (more likely). Not bearish, will be a buy opportunity.
</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 INDEX has been rising &gt; 30% since its 303-low in early April 2025: a vertical rally after Lee Jae-myung's won the Presidential Elections in South Korea.

Our most extreme profit target set in our latest insight was 392. The KOSPI 200 reached 394 on June 16th. It is now ultra-overbought. 

Our short-term WEEKLY tactical view is the following: the index could go maybe a bit higher or it could pullback soon (more likely). Not bearish, will be a buy opportunity.



<ul>
<li>Lee Jae-myung's is projected to win the Presidential Elections in South Korea. The Democratic Party of Korea candidate said he wants to revive the economy and stabilize the stock market.</li>
<li>At the moment of writing (around midnight Singapore time) the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a>'s reaction is positive, the futures are rising towards the most recent, last week highs (363).</li>
<li>This is a quick review of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kospi-200-tactical-outlook-after-index-rebalancing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our most recent KOSPI 200's tactical setups</a>, in light of the political news coming out of the polls.</li>
</ul>


Lee Jae-myung's is projected to win the Presidential Elections in South Korea. The Democratic Party of Korea candidate said he wants to revive the economy and stabilize the stock market.
At the moment of writing (around midnight Singapore time) the KOSPI 200 INDEX's reaction is positive, the futures are rising towards the most recent, last week highs (363).
This is a quick review of our most recent KOSPI 200's tactical setups, in light of the political news coming out of the polls.


KOSPI 200 Update: Market Moves After Lee Jae-Myung’s Victory

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Tariff Risk Returns: Market Signals and Asia’s Volatility Momentum

The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs is set to expire, causing volatility in markets and raising investor concern about potential stress ahead.

Gaudenz Schneider

Kospi200: Elevated Returns, Historical Extremes and Optionality Opportunity

This article analyzes recent market returns, examines volatility trends after extreme states, and discusses the rationale for using options in the...

John Ley

Kospi200: Where Implied Vol Stands After 33% Surge

Kospi200 shows strong weekly gains with a powerful rally since April, but implied volatility no longer reacts to spot moves as before.

John Ley

KOSPI 200 Tactical Warning: OVERBOUGHT

The KOSPI 200 Index has surged over 30% since April 2025, a vertical rally after President Lee Jae-myung's victory. Currently ultra-overbought,...

Nico Rosti

KOSPI 200 Update: Market Moves After Lee Jae-Myung’s Victory

Lee Jae-myung projected to win South Korea's Presidential Elections. KOSPI 200 INDEX reacts positively, futures rising. Check out our latest KOSPI...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tariff Risk Returns: Market Signals and Asia’s Volatility Momentum

​The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs is set to expire, causing volatility in markets and raising investor concern about potential stress ahead.

Gaudenz Schneider

Kospi200: Elevated Returns, Historical Extremes and Optionality Opportunity

​This article analyzes recent market returns, examines volatility trends after extreme states, and discusses the rationale for using options in the...

John Ley

Kospi200: Where Implied Vol Stands After 33% Surge

​Kospi200 shows strong weekly gains with a powerful rally since April, but implied volatility no longer reacts to spot moves as before.

John Ley

KOSPI 200 Tactical Warning: OVERBOUGHT

​The KOSPI 200 Index has surged over 30% since April 2025, a vertical rally after President Lee Jae-myung's victory. Currently ultra-overbought,...

Nico Rosti

KOSPI 200 Update: Market Moves After Lee Jae-Myung’s Victory

​Lee Jae-myung projected to win South Korea's Presidential Elections. KOSPI 200 INDEX reacts positively, futures rising. Check out our latest KOSPI...

Nico Rosti

The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs is set to expire, causing volatility in markets and raising investor concern about potential stress ahead.

This article analyzes recent market returns, examines volatility trends after extreme states, and discusses the rationale for using options in the...

Kospi200 shows strong weekly gains with a powerful rally since April, but implied volatility no longer reacts to spot moves as before.

The KOSPI 200 Index has surged over 30% since April 2025, a vertical rally after President Lee Jae-myung's victory. Currently ultra-overbought,...

Lee Jae-myung projected to win South Korea's Presidential Elections. KOSPI 200 INDEX reacts positively, futures rising. Check out our latest KOSPI...