Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>How did our major investment themes do so far in 2025?</li>
<li>Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on</li>
<li>We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for H2 25</li>
</ul>


How did our major investment themes do so far in 2025?
Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on
We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for H2 25


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115).</li>
<li>We are upgrading Korea(KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed May 30 several Financials and other stocks to buy. KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115).
We are upgrading Korea(KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed May 30 several Financials and other stocks to buy. KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend.


Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

<ul>
<li>That “Oh sh#t moment” has just struck many investors in US markets</li>
<li>Within Hong Kong , Tech most at risk as investors take profit</li>
<li>Our alternative sector selection  has performed both absolutely and in relative terms</li>
</ul>


That “Oh sh#t moment” has just struck many investors in US markets
Within Hong Kong , Tech most at risk as investors take profit
Our alternative sector selection  has performed both absolutely and in relative terms


Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 1:  Hong Kong Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>China listed HK shares continue to lead the pack in Asia</li>
<li>India's rate cuts, tax cuts and election wins are not supporting the market</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
China listed HK shares continue to lead the pack in Asia
India's rate cuts, tax cuts and election wins are not supporting the market


Overview #15 – Who's Afraid of the USD?

<ul>
<li>Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets.  </li>
<li>Short to mid-term concerns on the Indian market warrant this strategic change</li>
<li>Slowing revenue growth and less government spending leading to decelerating profits which is not yet reflected in market multiples</li>
</ul>


Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets.  
Short to mid-term concerns on the Indian market warrant this strategic change
Slowing revenue growth and less government spending leading to decelerating profits which is not yet reflected in market multiples


2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into Hong Kong - Part 1

South Korea

The KOSPI Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. The Index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1980. Note: The preferred shares are excluded in calculating the KOSPI Index from June 14, 2002. 

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Mid-Year Themes Review - Part I

A review of the performance of major investment themes in 2025 and outlook for the second half of the year, focusing on our favoured Asian equity...

Rikki Malik

Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

MSCI $ACWI and Emerging Market $EEM Breakouts; Upgrading Korea $EWY to Overweight; Downgrading Broad Europe, but staying Overweight Germany,...

Vermilion Research

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 1: Hong Kong Strategy

Investors in US markets face a sudden realization, with Hong Kong Tech most vulnerable as profit-taking occurs. Our alternative sector selection...

Rikki Malik

Overview #15 – Who's Afraid of the USD?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We takea quick tour around China, India and Japan

Rikki Malik

2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into Hong Kong - Part 1

Shift in allocation from Indian to Chinese markets is favored due to short/mid-term concerns, including slowing revenue growth and decelerating...

Rikki Malik

Mid-Year Themes Review - Part I

​A review of the performance of major investment themes in 2025 and outlook for the second half of the year, focusing on our favoured Asian equity...

Rikki Malik

Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

MSCI $ACWI and Emerging Market $EEM Breakouts; Upgrading Korea $EWY to Overweight; Downgrading Broad Europe, but staying Overweight Germany,...

Vermilion Research

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 1: Hong Kong Strategy

​Investors in US markets face a sudden realization, with Hong Kong Tech most vulnerable as profit-taking occurs. Our alternative sector selection...

Rikki Malik

Overview #15 – Who's Afraid of the USD?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We takea quick tour around China, India and Japan

Rikki Malik

2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into Hong Kong - Part 1

​Shift in allocation from Indian to Chinese markets is favored due to short/mid-term concerns, including slowing revenue growth and decelerating...

Rikki Malik

A review of the performance of major investment themes in 2025 and outlook for the second half of the year, focusing on our favoured Asian equity...

Investors in US markets face a sudden realization, with Hong Kong Tech most vulnerable as profit-taking occurs. Our alternative sector selection...

Shift in allocation from Indian to Chinese markets is favored due to short/mid-term concerns, including slowing revenue growth and decelerating...